In early October, the announcement of rare earth export control once again brought the "old partners" of China and the United States onto the international stage full of gunpowder. Trump said it harshly that the tariff should be increased to 100%, but in a blink of an eye, he "changed his face" and said that he could have a chat.
More interestingly, the former U.S. ambassador to China Burns suddenly came out and stated that our country now has the power to "set up" with the U.S., but the talk turns, he is resolutely opposed to the G2 model of the world, saying that the U.S. is not afraid, there are four great helpers behind.
A game, a turn: the door behind the Central American rare-earth confrontation
On October 9, the Ministry of Commerce of China suddenly announced that new export restrictions would be imposed on rare earth-related products, technologies and equipment.
Whether it is new energy vehicles, electric aircraft, or the latest missile system, it is inseparable from it. China holds about 90% of the world's rare earth permanent magnet production capacity. To put it bluntly, if anyone offends us, they can't eat the rare earth meal comfortably.
Trump first threatened to impose a 100% import tariff on our goods, and said it was a necessary means of "responding to provocation".
Unexpectedly, in less than two days, the attitude of the United States has changed greatly. The White House began to release rumors that "trade negotiations are still possible", and Trump himself softened on TV, saying that China and the United States "can still be talked about". The attitude before and after this turned too fast, and the outside world was confused.
In the back of this, in fact, the U.S. is really aware of the seriousness of the problem. Don't look at the old saying "to China" "out of the industrial chain", but really to the crucial moment, to discover a lot of core materials of high-tech products, can not bypass our country at all. especially in the field of rare earth, we are from resources to refinement to technology, the entire industrial chain is in their own hands.
So this time, Trump's toughness is only superficial, but he is afraid in his bones-he is afraid that the supply of rare earths will be cut off, the manufacturing industry will be paralyzed, and voters will not buy it. This "rare earth confrontation" between China and the United States has become a realistic reminder: You can dislike China, but you can't leave China.
Burns "told the truth," but his words could not hide America's anxiety inside and outside
At this time, Burns jumped out and spoke.He was formerly an ambassador to China, and is considered to be a better understanding of our country by Americans. China is no longer the “student that can only be imitated” but a “respectful opponent” with a global influence that is now on par with the United States.
When this is said, it can be regarded as a relatively rare "telling the truth" by the US. In the past, no matter how we dealt with it, the United States always assumed an "old man" attitude, talking about cooperation, but not convinced. This time, even they themselves admitted that China's strength in science and technology, economy, military affairs, etc. is no longer something that can be ignored casually.
However, Burns changed the topic and said another thought-provoking sentence: China and the United States can be equal, but they cannot form a G2. Why? He said that the United States also has four "like-minded friends"-Japan, the European Union, Australia and India-who can hedge against China's "rising pressure."
It sounds funny, but this “help” look carefully. It is more like a psychological comfort.First of all, can these so-called “helpers” really help? after all, the interests between countries are not friendship.You are good to me today, I will stand with you; you will charge me tariffs tomorrow, it is a shame, I have to change the direction.
The so-called "four big helpers" actually have their own calculations, and none of them can be really relied on
Let's talk about Japan first. Although it is closely tied to the United States in terms of security, its political arena changes frequently and its policies change, so there is no way to talk about long-term stability. In addition, Japan relies heavily on resources, especially in high-end manufacturing, where rare earths are the lifeblood. If it really wants to "choose a side between China and the United States," it will have to consider it.
Look at Europe again. Don't listen to its cries of "values diplomacy" and "alliance cooperation", in fact, Germany and France are desperately trying their best to stabilize economic and trade ties with our country. German car companies are making a lot of money in our country's market, and France does not want to be marginalized in Asia. More and more voices within the EU are talking about "strategic autonomy", which means: we don't manage everything in the United States, but we also have our own calculations.
Australia is more typical. A few years ago, we had a fierce trouble with our country, but we can't do without our country economically. Iron ore, wine, and agricultural products, which one is not supported by our market? It said that it wanted to "contain China" with the United States, but when it came time to sign an agreement and stand in line, it began to hesitate.
What about India? He is also a "lone ranger in the grass on the wall." On the surface, he participated in the "Indo-Pacific Strategy" and the QUAD Dialogue, but he immediately turned around to buy Russian oil and engaged in economic and trade cooperation with my country. The Modi government has repeatedly refused to sign agreements with "hostility towards China", indicating that it always wants to be a "third party" and is unwilling to completely take sides.
To put it bluntly, the United States wants to rely on these "four helpers" to contain our country. The drawings are quite beautiful, but when it comes to practical operations, it is all a problem.Moreover, Trump has also "hit and scolded" his allies in recent years. He has not been soft in increasing tariffs or engaging in frictions. Even Mexico and Canada have been criticized by him. Who would really dare to follow him wholeheartedly?
The world has changed and America hasn't woken up yet
Today's world, long ago, was not the age of who said it was. Now it is the industry chain, scientific and technological power, diplomatic capabilities and strategic determination. These years, China steadfastly steadfastly inside, while accelerating the "outer cycle", through the "Belt and Road" and RCEP, ASEAN, Africa and the Middle East have been integrated into the cooperation circle.
Speaking of the rare earth, we do not want to "card the neck", but to tell the world: we are not willing to be placed as chess. The U.S. is still fantasizing about a "super-strong" structure, but reality is already telling it: the world is becoming more and more extreme.
Although Burns does not say that he recognizes the G2, his "recognition of China's strength" actually shows that the United States itself knows that this "boss" position cannot remain so stable.
Interestingly, the current confrontation instead forced the two Chinese and American countries to look at each other more calmly. In mid-October, China and the United States sat in Geneva and talked and eventually reached an agreement to cut tariffs within 90 days. The United States dropped from 145 percent to 30 percent, and our country dropped from 125 percent to 10 percent. There is no winner in the fight, and cooperation is the real way out.
Many people ask, should China and the United States form G2? Actually, this is not the key. The key is whether the United States can really accept a world where "it doesn't have the final say". China has never risen for the sake of "seizing power". Our goal is clear: to develop ourselves and achieve win-win cooperation.
We don't intend to dominate the world, but we won't be commanded at will anymore. This state is not to challenge anyone, but to conform to the times. In the final analysis, the relationship between China and the United States is not about choosing sides, but about learning to coexist. You can dislike me, but you have to respect me. This is the background of future international rules.
The U.S. wants to maintain hegemony on the basis of the “friend circle”, but this friend circle is not mortal but is an interest partner. Today help you, tomorrow help others, this is the reality. So Burns’ phrase “Can’t group G2” is not important. China is at the center of the world.
reference
Observer Network Burns, former US Ambassador to China: China's strength is far stronger than imagined, and we can no longer underestimate it