Recently, the Japanese political world is experiencing an unprecedented shock, the ruling alliance between the People's Party and the People's Party hasined twenty years of collapse, this change not only left the People's Party losing the majority seats in the House of Representatives, but also put the ruling foundation of the party's chief executive in danger of collapse, and the outside world generally speculates that its "defeat has been decided" in the upcoming party's first election.
Against this background, a series of policy shifts have taken place in Japanese politics. Some party leaders have taken the initiative to send friendly signals to China. Takashi Saami is considering abandoning the annual plan to visit the Yasukuni Shrine in the autumn, while shelving the defunct Chief Cabinet Secretary Minobara's trip to Taiwan, and publicly stated his desire to "improve relations with China and South Korea."
However, the political and economic risks hidden in Tokyo are far from exposed, and the shadow of the "black gold" remains and economic difficulties hidden in the political circle in Tokyo have left this change of power a heavy shadow.
The alliance broke up.
The spark of the exit from the ruling coalition of the Communist Party is that the three policies of the new president of the Communist Party, Cao市早苗, touched the bottom line of the allies, as a pro-Chinese representative, the Communist Party put forward three core demands, to stop visiting Yogyakarta, thoroughly examine the "black gold" scandal within the party, and restrict the influx of South Asian immigrants.
However, in order to consolidate the right-wing fundamentals, takaichi sanae not only refused to cancel the autumn shrine visit plan, but also promoted Koichi Hagiuda, who was involved in the "black gold" scandal, to the No.2 figure in the party, and acquiesced in Taro Aso's faction to continue to manipulate the recommendation mechanism of parliamentarians.
This contradictory strategy of “supporting both political allies and rejecting fundamental reforms” eventually led to the Communist Party leader Ziyu Tsiff announcing at a press conference on October 10 that “on the basis of differences in ideas and stagnation of reforms, the Communist Party will end the joint rule with the Communist Party.”
At the data level, the self-government party held only 196 seats in the House of Representatives from 465 seats, and after the exit of the party, its governing base dropped to 220 seats, 13 votes apart from the 233 seats needed for over half.
Despite high-ranking attempts to grab the National Democratic Party (27 seats) to fill the gap, the opponent put forward conditions such as "comprehensively reforming the political donation system", while the Constitutional Democratic Party (148 seats) has clearly expressed its support for玉木雄一郎's candidacy.
This contrast between “unprecedented unity in the opposition” and “disruption within the ruling party” has made the prime minister’s nomination election a staggering one of 196:148.
Attitudes towards China turn
Faced with the crisis of losing the election, Takaichi Sanae completed three sharp policy turns within 72 hours, canceled the autumn visit to the Yasukuni Shrine, stopped cabinet members' arrangements to move to Taiwan, and released the signal of meeting with high-level Chinese officials during the APEC summit at the end of October.
Behind this shift lies the cruel economic reality. China accounts for 22% of Japan's total exports, and the automobile industry relies on China at 38%.
When the United States announced that it would increase its automobile tariffs on Japan from 2.5% to 15%, emergency calculations by Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry showed that if the China market was lost, Toyota, Honda and other automobile companies would be forced to lay off 120,000 people, and related supply chain losses would exceed 4.3 trillion yen.
The actions of the Komeito Party are more strategic. Party leader Natsuo Yamaguchi visited China with a personal letter written by Fumio Kishida. This not only restored the ruling party's communication mechanism, but also finalized specific plans to deepen the "strategic and mutually beneficial relationship."
This double diplomacy of “government-to-government” and “party-to-party” has led Japan to receive a 15% increase in the rare-earth import quota approved by China on October 8, temporarily easing the raw material crisis in the production of new energy vehicle batteries.
While Taiwan's authorities have become passive due to Japan's adjustment of China's policy, its "Friendship Japanese" think tank has to admit that "Tokyo is re-calibrating its strategic hub in the Asia-Pacific."
Political and economic difficulties
The darkness of Tokyo's politics is far from exhausted, and although the six lawmakers involved in the self-government party "Black Gold" scandal were removed from the "recognized candidate" qualification, the media exposed that they still received campaign funds of 2,300 million yen per seat through the "shadow account".
This operation of “nominal exclusion and actual funding” has triggered a collapse in voters’ confidence in political cleanliness, with the latest poll by DPRK news showing that 68% of respondents believe that the “self-government party has lost the will to reform”, and the support rate for traditional political parties fell to 19% in the group under the age of 35.
The crisis in the electoral districts is equally fatal, Japan Economic News estimates that if the party's supporters turn collectively to the Constitutional Democratic Party, the Democratic Party will lose seats in 25 key electoral districts, 20 of which will be in the Constitutional Democratic Party's income pocket.
This “reconstruction of electoral districts” is taking place, in Saitama County’s 3rd electoral district, where the self-government party candidates were prosecuted for involvement in the “property development bribery case,” resulting in the district’s voter registration rate dropped from 72 percent to 58 percent, while the Constitutional Democrat candidate’s “full political donation transparency” claim gained 63% of analog voting support.
It is not only a political crisis, but also the overall pressure of the economic system, the U.S. to Japan car tariff adjustment caused Toyota's power expansion program in Kentucky, Kentucky, was suspended, and Nissan was forced to increase the capacity of the Mexican production line by 30 percent to circumvent tariffs.
This vicious cycle of “industrial displacement – domestic unemployment – shrinking consumption” has led Japan’s unemployment rate to rise to 3.8 per cent in September and the core CPI to exceed the alert line of 3 per cent for five consecutive months.
What is even more serious is the dilemma of energy structure transformation. The dispute over wastewater emissions from the Fukushima nuclear power plant caused LNG imports to surge by 42%. However, global LNG prices rose by 67% due to the recovery of European demand, and Japan Electric Power Company was forced to increase household electricity bills by 18%.
This chain response to the “increased cost of imports – increased burden on people’s livelihoods – shrinking policy space” has caused the previously introduced “2 trillion yen energy subsidy” plan by the Cabinet to be cut by 43 percent in the budget review.
Judging from the current situation, Takashi Zaomiao's road to governance has reached a dead end. Whether it is the collapse of his political foundation or the accumulation of economic risks, it has made it difficult for him to reverse his decline in the party leader election.
Although the policy shift in Japanese politics may relieve some diplomatic pressure in the short term, it cannot fundamentally resolve domestic political differences and economic difficulties.
Once the hidden "big thunder" in Tokyo is detonated, it will not only trigger domestic turmoil in Japan, but may also have a chain impact on regional security and economic structure.
In the future, Japan’s political direction, the resolution of economic risks, and the adjustment of foreign policy will be the focus of international attention, and how to find a way out of multiple crises will test the wisdom and ability of Japanese rulers.
conclusion
The essence of this political earthquake is the deep collision between the post-war political system of Japan and the challenges of globalization.
When the self-government party’s surviving “politics – corporate donations – electoral district manipulation” triangle structure is struck by the “black gold” scandal and the wave of populism, when the industrial transformation pushed by economic globalization encounters the political system stiffness, the “thunderstorm” in Tokyo’s political arena may just be the precursor to a bigger storm.
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The source:
Japan's Prime Minister's Election Additional Number - The Workers' Daily
https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1845833526626833845&wfr=spider&for=pc"Taking into account China and South Korea, sanae takaichi considers giving up visiting the Yasukuni Shrine in autumn"-Observer Network-
https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1845373934799265859&wfr=spider&for=pc"After the Komeito Party withdraws from the ruling coalition, does Takashi Murami still hope to serve as Prime Minister of Japan?"-- Yangcheng Faction--
https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1845645821505478176&wfr=spider&for=pc