Trump's series of actions made the outside world exclaim: Is he "abandoning the car to protect the handsome" this time? American experts also bluntly said that China has already quietly laid out and prepared for 50 years.
On the surface, it is just an adjustment of political strategy, but the long-term consideration hidden behind it is far more complicated than the current situation.
What kind of chain reaction will Trump's move bring? How will China's long-term layout affect the next step of the game?
The crisis of the U.S. government shutdownspread in Washington.
The two parties in Congress are arguing over the budget issue, and the extent of social scattering is worrying.
Federal government departments are in trouble, and millions of government employees face unpaid leave.
Against this background, Trump made an intriguing decision- Priority shall be given to the distribution of wages for soldiers.
This date is crucial for the U.S. military.
Millions of active soldiers and their families are waiting for this salary.
After receiving the presidential order, Hergezs immediately began mobilizing resources inside the Pentagon.
According to internal sources, The defense ministry is considering using the $8 billion emergency reserve, which was originally a strategic reserve for weapons development and testing projects.
The context of this decision is more complex.
Just a few days ago, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce suddenly announced tougher controls on rare earth exports.
The word rare earth sounds very technical, in fact it is the blood of the modern military industry.
From the radar systems of the F-35 fighter jets to all kinds of precision-guided weapons, these seemingly insignificant minerals are inseparable.
China occupies an absolute dominant position in the global rare earth supply chain. This move can be described as It was hit on the seven-inch U.S. military-industrial system.
Trump's reaction was also fierce.
He announced a 100% tariff increase on all China goods starting from November 1.
This figure sounds gasping, which is equivalent to doubling the price of Chinese goods directly.
China's response was surprisingly calm.
Even in the face of such severe tariff threats, Beijing showed no sign of compromise within 24 hours.
This firm stance has led some analysts in Washington to reassess China's determination and readiness in this game.
Andrew Lukey, founder of Andrew Industries, said a word in an interview with Bloomberg that shocked many Americans.
He said China has been preparing for this Sino-US game for 50 years.
Since the 1970s, China has been preparing for today’s confrontation, and the United States has not really realized the intensity of competition until recent years.
Luckey's words are not groundless.
China has systematically established a complete industrial system over the past few decades., from rare earth mining to finishing, from basic manufacturing to high-end technology, a complete industrial chain has been formed.
Although the United States has a technological advantage, the manufacturing base has been largely moved overseas in the wave of globalization.
Trump’s manufacturing regression plan has been implemented for years, and the results are not ideal.
Many U.S. companies find that even with government tax incentives and subsidies, rebuilding a complete production line in the U.S. still faces many problems, such as costly and a shortage of technical workers.
while After decades of accumulation, China has a complete industrial ecosystem from the supply of raw materials to the export of finished products.
Military officials inside the Pentagon are worried, If the supply of rare earths is really cut off, U.S. military production will face a serious impact.
Some critical weapons systems may not be produced properly due to a lack of rare-earth elements.
This concern prompted Trump has made the decision of “abandoned car sheriff”In the event of a government shutdown, priority shall be given to the normal operation of the army.
If Trump really implemented a 100% tariff policy on November 1, U.S. consumers would directly feel the impact of rising prices.
From everyday goods to electronics, almost all goods from China will become more expensive.
Whether this approach can force China to change its position now seems full of uncertainty.
Lucky also mentioned in the interview that the United States needs to develop its own rare earth industry, establish an independent industrial system, and prepare for a "protracted trade war".
This suggestion sounds reasonable, but it is difficult to implement.
Although the United States also has rare earth reserves, the environmental costs of mining and processing are much higher than in China.
Establishing a complete rare earth industry chain requires huge investment and several years, and the progress of the trade war will not wait for anyone.
Trump has really encountered a hard stubble this time. His old way of business negotiation obviously doesn't work well here in China.
Chinese people pay attention to "before the troops and horses move, food and grass go first" when fighting.It seems that this is also the idea in the case of the trade war, and decades in advance began to lay down the rare-earth industry, and now it is time to collect the net.
Although the United States has a strong military force, there are indeed shortcomings in the integrity of the industrial chain.
Trump can now only "abandon the car guard" and first maintain the basic operation of the army, which indicates that the problem is already quite serious.
Whether the tariffs on November 1 will work, it seems to be hard to say now.
In the long run, this game is likely to go on for a long time, with both sides testing the other's bottom line and affordability.
China is obviously ready for a protracted war. It remains to be seen whether the United States can adjust its strategies to adapt to the new rules of the game.
Source of information:
· Official website of the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China-Official announcement of rare earth export control measures and related policy interpretation documents
U.S. Department of Defense Pentagon Press Release - Military Salary Guarantee Program and Emergency Reserve Use Authorization Statement
White House Official Statement Office – President Trump’s official announcement of a 100% tariff on China
·Exclusive interview with Bloomberg News-In-depth interview with Luckey, founder of Anduril Industries, on the Sino-US game
U.S. Congress Budget Office Report – Assessment of Federal Institutional Operations and Fiscal Impact During Government Cessation
Reuters Washington Report - Analysis of U.S. Manufacturing Return Policy Implementation Effect and Challenges
Routine press conference of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China - Speaker responds to media questions on China-US trade disputes and rare-earth policy