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On October 12, Belarusian President Lukashenko threatened Zelensky.
“Sit down and negotiate and act urgently,” otherwise Ukraine could “disappear as a country.”
Just a few days ago, energy facilities in several Ukrainian cities were successively hit by Russian troops, Kiev fell into darkness and hospital operations were forced to be interrupted.
The Energy War
The war has entered its third year, but this year is more dangerous than ever.
If artillery fire on the frontline can still give people a glimpse of the shape of war, then attacks on the energy system are a more secretive but equally deadly way to strike.
In the early morning of October 3, Russian troops launched attacks on energy facilities in several states in Ukraine, focusing on natural gas transportation infrastructure.
The natural gas production facility in Poltava Region stopped operating early that morning. In the early morning of a week later, before the residents of Kiev could wake up from their sleep, the entire city suddenly fell into darkness.
This is not a simple blackout. The Russian army's targets are accurately targeted at hydropower stations, thermal power plants, thermal power plants, transformers, oil depots and ports.
Up to nine Ukrainian cities, including Chernihiv and Odessa, were hit almost at the same time.Ongoing surgeries in the hospital were interrupted, traffic lights were completely extinguished, and residents 'daily lives were completely suspended.
Ukraine's energy minister said after the attack that Russian airstrikes caused "significant" damage to natural gas production capacity.
Gas production capacity losses have exceeded 60%, and winter has not really arrived.Ukraine now hopes to increase gas imports by 30%, but even so it is difficult to ensure that people can safely spend the winter.
Behind this was a well-designed tactical system, with the Russian military using a large number of Iranian-made Shahr-136 suicide drones, a weapon priced at just about $20,000, with a range of 2,000 kilometers and carrying 50 kilograms of ammunition.
More importantly, the Russian army will release hundreds of such drones at one time. Ukraine can only use expensive anti-aircraft missiles provided by the West to intercept. The cost of an anti-aircraft missile may be hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars.
The outcome of this asymmetrical consumption war has been visible for everybody over time.In the past week alone, the Russian military has carried out one intensive strike and six cluster strikes.
Some regions of Ukraine have begun to implement electricity restrictions, winter has not yet officially arrived, and the days of the people have entered the "difficult mode".
Complaints and protests began to emerge due to power outages, water cuts, and natural gas shortages. Russia also issued a more severe threat. If Ukraine continues to crack down on Russia's own energy facilities, the next step will be to completely destroy Ukraine's natural gas system and power grid.
According to the British Financial Times, The United States has been helping Ukraine crack down on Russian energy facilities for several months in a row.This means that the escalation of this energy war may just have begun.
Crisis in two fortress cities
Beyond the shadow of the energy war, the position of the front is equally shaking.In both directions of Donetsk and Kharkov, the Ukrainian army is facing tremendous pressure.
In the direction of Donetsk, the Russian army has begun to invade the Red Army city, and urban warfare is breaking out. If the city falls, it will not only be a major military defeat for Ukraine.
More likely to further shake the defensive positions of the Ukrainian army throughout the Donetsk region.In the worst case, the Ukrainian army could be completely expelled from the Donetsk region.
The situation in the state of Kharkov is even more pressing. The railway hub that crosses the river Oskilsk is gradually losing in the hands of the Ukrainian army. It is not an ordinary city, it interacts with Kharkov, while linking the situation in Donetsk. The Russian army has invaded the city center, and the governor of the state of Kharkov has had to issue an evacuation order.
If the major logistics center of Koupiansk fell into the hands of the Russian army, the Ukrainian defense line could collapse systematically.
Zelensky's dilemma
Faced with such a severe situation, Zelensky obviously realized the urgency of the problem. He communicated by phone with the White House one after another, trying to persuade the United States to provide more support as soon as possible.
It is understood that he is likely to once again ask the United States to immediately provide Tomahawk cruise missiles. But the attitude of the United States is very subtle.
The White House's position is that it hopes to contact Moscow on this issue. Only if Russia "refuses to cease fire" can the United States consider providing Tomahawk cruise missiles.
This vague statement, in fact, reflects Washington's hesitation.The reason is not difficult to understand.The provision of long-range combat weapons such as the "Taxic Axis" may lead to further escalation of the conflict.
Even if the United States does provide it, it will only trigger a more violent counterattack from Russia. And judging from the current situation, Russia has not stopped special military operations because of the threat of "Tomahawk". On the contrary, the Russian army is still advancing the front line.
Zelensky accused the mayor of Kiev of being weak in defense, while the mayor’s supporters, in turn, mocked Zelensky of not knowing how to fight.
For ordinary Ukrainians, the cruelty of the war is reflected not only in the front, but in every detail of everyday life.
The medical system is in danger of collapse. The forced interruption of operations is not an exception, but a norm. The transportation system is also paralyzed. Congestion and even accidents often occur at intersections without traffic lights.
The deeper problem is economic pressure. Ukraine's economy is already strained by the war, and energy losses have further aggravated this burden.
Inflation pressures continue to rise, unemployment continues to rise, and people’s complaints and protests begin to emerge across cities.
If Ukraine’s energy system collapses completely, a large number of refugees will flow to Europe. Modern warfare is no longer just a front-line shelling confrontation, but has evolved into a “system confrontation” between nations.
Belarusian President Lukashenko issued a warning to Zelensky, Want to solve the problem Unless Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy "sits down to negotiate and acts urgently," Ukraine may "cease to exist as a country."
The front line trend shows that two fortified cities are in danger, the energy crisis suggests that the coming winter will be a severe test, and the internal fissures indicate that the high-level inner struggle is weakening the resistance of the whole country.
Zelenskyy now faces a difficult choice between continuing to fight or sitting down and talking.
More civilian casualties, more territorial losses, the energy system could collapse completely, society could fall into chaos, and in the worst case, Ukraine could really “disappear as a nation.”
But a ceasefire is equally difficult, Russia is still pushing the front, and Moscow has not shown a clear willingness to cease the fire.
The support of the United States is uncertain, and whether Western aid can be sustained is also a question mark. And the conditions for a ceasefire may be unacceptable to Ukraine.
conclusion
But one thing is certain, the decision-making time left to Zelensky and Kiev is really not much.
They must make a choice between war and peace as soon as possible.
This choice will determine the fate of Ukraine and affect the future pattern of the entire region.