Russian President Vladimir Putin recently announced that Russian-American relations have "completely broken up", directly targeting President Trump, who is considering releasing the "Tax" cruise missile signal to Ukraine. This hopeful "TOP 2 turn" has not yet begun, and the most profound cost is being borne by Ukraine in the war.
The “Tax” missile: the last grass to crush the camel
The tipping point of the whole incident was a cruise missile called the Tomahawk.
Trump has been a bit "gone with the wind" recently. He told reporters at the White House that he had "almost" decided to send Ukraine this "big gift"-the "Tomahawk" cruise missile. This thing is not the guys with a range of several hundred kilometers in Ukraine's current hands. The "Tomahawk" can fly more than 2,000 kilometers, which means that it is launched from the Ukrainian front line. Moscow, the capital of Russia, and the famous city of St. Petersburg, all strategic locations are within its strike range.
As soon as the news came out, the Kremlin immediately blew up. Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov made it clear: This is "a serious escalation of the situation"! He even dug out the old almanac and warned that some models of Tomahawks can carry nuclear warheads-although military experts all know that the US military's Tomahawks that can carry nuclear warheads have long been retired. Russia said this, nothing more than emphasizing the extremely serious nature of this matter.
But Putin’s warning is even harsher and more ferocious than Trump imagined. He directly broke a key: the Ukrainian people can’t play the “Tax” type of high-end goods at all. Launching the “Tax” is not a mobile game, just a touch of the screen. It needs to plan the attack route in advance with high-precision 3D maps, these maps are the highest military secret of the United States, and can never be handed over to Ukraine.
Putin's words are tantamount to tearing off the last fig leaf: if the United States provides a "Tomahawk", it will not just send weapons, but send people directly. This is no longer a "proxy conflict", but a new stage of direct confrontation between the United States and Russia. It is also against this background that Putin made the judgment of "a complete break in the relationship", which is tantamount to closing the door to the Trump administration that may come to power in advance.
2. Merkel has turned up old scores, and Europe's regrets are unbearable.
Why is Putin's reaction so violent? Perhaps it was because, better than anyone else, he knew that once he took this road of providing long-range offensive weapons, there was no turning back.
At the same time, the former prime minister of Germany, Angela Merkel, suddenly stood up and said the "great truth." She turned out of the old account of 2021, saying that she and French President Macron would not easily want to pull on Putin and establish a dialogue mechanism to see if it could reduce the situation and avoid conflict. As a result, this proposal was strongly opposed by Poland and the three Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) and eventually in the belly.
Merkel's words sound meaningful now. What she alludes to is a kind of "convert fanaticism"-these countries, which used to be either the sphere of influence of the Soviet Union or simply Soviet republics, in order to show their loyalty to the new master "NATO", turned against Russia more fiercely than anyone else, and finally blocked the way to peace talks, which led to today's catastrophe.
Why does Merkel not say it sooner or later, but now? Because the public opinion field in Europe has changed. After more than three years of war, Europe really cannot fight and cannot afford it. The original unity of hatred against the enemy has been replaced by exhaustion and weariness of war. The United States clearly wants to dump the blame, and Trump even hinted that Ukraine has to pay for its own weapons. Europe itself has few money in its pocket, but it has to shoulder the bulk of aid to Ukraine. How can we fight this war?
So, Merkel’s words represent the real idea of a large group of Europeans: regret and don’t want to play.
Is Russia on the verge of direct conflict?
The house leaks only when it rains overnight. Just as US-Russia relations collapsed, Russia-Europe relations also reached a new stage of tension.
European Commission President Von der Leyen came up with a “trick”: to bring the EU’s frozen hundreds of billions of Russian assets overseas to Ukraine, the US called “indemnity loans.”This operation, in Russia’s view, is no different from robbery.
It's not about money anymore, it's about the bottom line. If Europe takes this step, it means that the last economic ties and trust foundation between Russia and Europe will be completely disintegrated. The conflict will quickly slide from the current political and economic fields to the edge of military friction. In a word, if the EU touches Russia's purse, Putin may touch the lifeblood of Europe-such as the lifeblood of energy. The risk of direct conflict between the two sides has never been higher than it is today.
Ukraine: the biggest victims
In this big-power game, encryption is always provided by others, but the fate is his own. Ukraine President Zelensky has recently been full of hope, saying Trump’s “no explicit rejection” of his “tacks” missile request, believing it was a “important signal” and he may also expect to push Russia back to the negotiating table with these long-range weapons.
But what he didn't understand, or didn't want to understand, was that he was becoming the most easily sacrificed pawn in the game of great powers. The United States provides weapons to test Russia and consume Europe, not to really care about the survival of Ukraine. Europe's support for Ukraine is largely due to moral kidnapping and geopolitical fear, but its patience and financial resources have run out.
Today, Trump's aggressive policy has directly led to the complete closure of US-Russia relations, and Ukraine's road to win US support through diplomatic channels has basically been blocked. Europe, on the other hand, is showing signs of fatigue, and its internal noise is in a mess. Up to now, what Ukraine has lost is its land, people and future; What the United States and Europe have lost may only be some weapons stocks and banknotes. No matter how you calculate this account, Ukraine suffers the worst loss.
Conclusion: Trump's warnings are related to a more dangerous world
Putin's "rupture" declaration was the most severe warning to Trump, indicating that once tough policies continue, there will be no room for maneuver between the two sides. Communication channels among major countries have been interrupted, and the world is facing a dangerous situation of increased risk of misjudgment and escalation of conflicts. Trump tried to use the "Tomahawk" to put pressure, but the other party directly lifted the table. There is no winner in this game, and Ukraine is destined to shed blood first.