Russia feels that NATO is helping Ukraine with more and more weapons, from air defense systems to tanks and missiles, threatening its own security.

Putin has repeatedly suggested the possibility of using nuclear weapons, but Lukashenko said more openly.In December 2023, the deployment was completed, and he confirmed through the media that nuclear warheads were already in the Belarusian facilities.

In January 2024, Belarus changed its military doctrine to clearly incorporate nuclear weapons into its defense strategy. The Defense Minister said this was a response to external threats, especially from the West and Ukraine. In April, Lukashenko spoke in parliament, saying internal external threats were serious, high risk, and needed nuclear deterrence.

He mentioned the possibility of a military incident at the Ukrainian border, and said the security department blocked attempts to destroy every day from the smuggling of weapons into Ukraine. Western media analyzes that this is a pretext forining high-pressure rule at home, because his opposition is not arrested or exiled abroad.

In July 2024, he said he had a veto on the use of nuclear weapons and also mocked that Western intelligence agencies had not discovered the process of transportation.

In August, when Ukrainian troops entered Russia¡¯s Kursk region, he commented that this could force Russia to consider a nuclear option, but that Belarus would not get involved unless the border was struck. In October, he interviewed after the Kazan summit, saying that the use of nuclear weapons was limited to foreign soldiers entering the territory of Belarus.

In December, he and Putin signed a security agreement that included Belarus in Russia's nuclear umbrella. He said Belarus hosts dozens of Russian nuclear weapons and is preparing to deploy the Oreshnik intermediate-range missile, which was used in Ukraine last month.

He said that if anyone crosses the border, the response will come instantly. Putin did not transfer control, but Lukashenko insisted that the goal was set by Belarus, and the two countries pressed the button together when operating. This sounds like shouting, and Putin also dared to say. Western countries felt it was the escalation of nuclear blackmail, the EU strengthened border surveillance, and the United States said it was irresponsible.

In January, Lukashenko was again elected seventh president, winning 88% of the votes, and took office in March. He continued to push economic cooperation, inviting Pakistani workers to fill the labor gap.

In May, Ukraine intelligence said Belarus had a nuclear weapon delivery system but no Russian warheads. This does not agree with Lukashenko's statement that he always said he had nuclear weapons in hand. In June, the two countries conducted the second phase of nuclear exercises and simulated launches at the western base.

In October, Lukashenko said the West did not intend to tolerate Belarus and Russia, and NATO started its annual Steadfast Noon nuclear exercises from the 13th to test the scenes of nuclear weapons use. He complained that Europe would not compromise with Russia and would lead to a nuclear end, and that any negligence could trigger armed confrontation, including nuclear weapons.

Over the years, the core of Lukashenko's nuclear threat has been directed at Western aid to Ukraine. Every time the West announces new aid packages, such as the HIMARS missiles, 155-mm artillery shells, and Switchblade drones that the United States gave to Ukraine, he jumps out and says it is a provocation and will force Russia and Belarus to move nuclear weapons.

He claims nuclear weapons are the last resort, but if Ukraine continues to threaten Belarus¡¯ security, he dares to use them. NATO says this is dangerous rhetoric and increases the risk of misjudgment. U.S. President Biden in 2023 said Russia¡¯s nuclear threat is real and irresponsible.

According to experts, Lukashenko said this in order to tighten Russia¡¯s thighs in exchange for subsidies and support, because the Belarusian economy was heavily hurt by Western sanctions. He has always swung between Moscow and the West, and now completely turned to Russia. Russia¡¯s use of nuclear weapons in Belarus has shortened the time to strike against Ukraine and Eastern European NATO countries, expanding its capabilities.

Geographically, the border between Belarus and Ukraine is 1,084 kilometers long, and it also borders Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia. Lukashenko always said that these countries wanted to invade him. In the Wagner incident in June 2023, he helped Putin mediate and let Prigozhin's troops go to the Belarusian camp to avoid civil strife in Russia.

This raised his position in the eyes of Putin. In 2024, he said Ukraine was a test ground for shaping the future world order, threatening to grow, and Belarus would rise as a combat force accordingly. Opposition laughed at him that it was paranoia, but the fact is that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict lasted long, and nuclear factors became a source of uncertainty.

The international community called for dialogue and a freeze on hostilities, but Lukashenko insisted on his position, saying that only if the West stops aid to Ukraine and the two sides sign a peace agreement can global impact be avoided.

In reality, Lukashenko's harsh speech, although it sounds scary, actually has a high threshold for nuclear weapons. Russian nuclear doctrine has recently changed, incorporating Belarus under the umbrella, but emphasizing defense.

Lukashenko said he would not use nuclear weapons first unless the border was violated. But the West continues to aid Ukraine. From 2023 to 2025, the United States has provided billions of military aid, and Europe has followed suit. Ukraine used these weapons to counterattack. Russia suffered heavy losses, but did not use nuclear weapons.

Lukashenko's statement is more like deterrence to prevent NATO from directly intervening. The think tank reports that Russia is unlikely to move troops from the Ukrainian front line to threaten Belarus because of limited resources. Nuclear risks are there, but they are more of a political tool.

Conclusion:

In general, Lukashenko is more stubborn than Putin in that he publicly said that if he dared to help Ukraine, he would drop the atomic bomb. This is not empty talk, but based on Russia's confidence in nuclear deployment. But this has also made Belarus more isolated, its economy has suffered, and its people have a difficult life.

Under his rule, dissent was suppressed and the media was strictly controlled. If the conflict escalates in the future, the nuclear shadow will become even greater, but we hope that all parties will be rational and avoid disaster. In other words, the international order is in chaos and all countries want to protect themselves, but nuclear weapons are something that no one will benefit from.