U.S. soybeans finally found long-awaited buyers, and after China banned the purchase of U.S. soybeans, they turned soybeans to Indonesia and Vietnam, allowing these Southeast Asian countries to buy large amounts of U.S. soybeans.
China's decision to stop purchasing U.S. soybeans from May 2025 caught U.S. agriculture off guard.
Faced with mountainous inventories, the U.S. is rushing to open up new markets in Southeast Asia, with Indonesia and Vietnam becoming their lifeblood.
U.S. government officials frequently visit Southeast Asian countries and trade talks are ongoing.
However, behind the superficial bustle, there is anxiety that the U.S. bean farmers can’t hide: these new buyers’ purchasing power is simply a cupcake salary compared to the Chinese market.
In 2024, China bought up to $12.6 billion worth of soybeans from the United States, which is more than twice that of the second and third largest buyers, the European Union and Mexico combined.
The sudden disappearance of China, the biggest buyer, is undoubtedly a heavy blow to the American soybean industry.
In desperation, the United States turned its attention to Southeast Asia. Indonesia and Vietnam have become key targets.
The U.S. has reached an agreement with Indonesia that promises future total purchases of about $4.5 billion in U.S. agricultural products, including soybeans, corn and cotton.
According to the bilateral agreement, Indonesia plans to import about 2 million tons of U.S. soybeans every year, with an annual import amount of about US$900 million.
Vietnam also lagged behind, signing a Memorandum of Understanding with the American Soybean Export Association, pledging to buy more than $1.4 billion in U.S. agricultural products, of which soybeans are a key category.
The Southeast Asian market appears to be hot, but in the face of the original Chinese market, it is immediately visible.
It is clear to us that Indonesia’s pledged $900 million in soybeans imports annually, plus Vietnam’s $1.4 billion in agricultural procurement (not just soybeans), are less than two percent of China’s previous $12.6 billion in purchasing power.
In the words of American Bean Farmers themselves, “You can’t find a market that will replace China overnight.”
Some analysts pointed out pointedly that the procurement scale of Southeast Asian countries is not enough to fully fill the market gap caused by China's reduction in imports.
This is undoubtedly a difficult time for the bean farmers in the Midwestern region of the United States.
The Wall Street Journal reported that China was once the largest soybean buyer in the United States, and now losing this market has caused the U.S. soybean industry to encounter serious export difficulties.
The value of U.S. soybeans exports to China in 2025 is expected to drop dramatically from $12.8 billion in 2024 to about $6 billion, losing half of Yangtze River.
At the same time, the backlog of soybean stocks in the United States is serious. According to the October report of the United States Department of Agriculture, the ending stocks of soybeans in the United States were stable at an ultra-high level of 550 million bushels.
It is conceivable that on one hand, there are unsaleable soybeans and on the other hand, there is plummeting prices. The anxiety of soybean farmers is spreading in the fields.
At the same time that China stopped buying American soybeans, China didn't let itself fall into a shortage.
China has turned around and increased its soybean imports from other countries. From January to July 2025, China imported 42.26 million tons of soybeans from Brazil, a year-on-year increase of 25%, setting a new high for the same period.
This is 2.5 times more than imports from the United States.
In addition, China also seized the opportunity of Argentina's temporary cancellation of grain export taxes and quickly placed an order for at least 10 ships of Argentine soybeans-3.
The data show that from 1st to 8th of 2025, China's total import of soybeans was 7331,24 million tons, of which Brazil accounted for 71.6%, while the U.S. accounted for 22.8%.
In the face of the situation, the U.S. government has tried to take rescue measures.The White House has proposed to provide funding to U.S. farmers, with White House officials and congressmen constantly winding up, saying the total rescue funding could reach $15 billion.
These promises, however, were small, and by the beginning of October, the policy had not yet been adopted.
Further complicating matters, the U.S. federal government shut down due to a bipartisan stalemate, and about 750,000 employees were on unpaid leave. In this situation, the bailout plan can hardly be moved forward.
Even if aid can be distributed, it will still solve the fundamental dilemma.
Raglan, chairman of the American Soybean Association, bluntly said that the government's subsidies and plans are only "OK strains on the wound" and will never make the farm's bottom line complete.
China's decision to stop purchasing U.S. soybeans from May 2025 caught U.S. agriculture off guard.
Faced with mountainous inventories, the U.S. is rushing to open up new markets in Southeast Asia, with Indonesia and Vietnam becoming their lifeblood.
U.S. government officials frequently visit Southeast Asian countries and trade talks are ongoing.
However, behind the superficial bustle, there is anxiety that the U.S. bean farmers can’t hide: these new buyers’ purchasing power is simply a cupcake salary compared to the Chinese market.
In 2024, China bought up to $12.6 billion worth of soybeans from the United States, which is more than twice that of the second and third largest buyers, the European Union and Mexico combined.
The sudden disappearance of China, the biggest buyer, is undoubtedly a heavy blow to the American soybean industry.
In desperation, the United States turned its attention to Southeast Asia. Indonesia and Vietnam have become key targets.
The U.S. has reached an agreement with Indonesia that promises future total purchases of about $4.5 billion in U.S. agricultural products, including soybeans, corn and cotton.
According to the bilateral agreement, Indonesia plans to import about 2 million tons of U.S. soybeans every year, with an annual import amount of about US$900 million.
Vietnam also lagged behind, signing a Memorandum of Understanding with the American Soybean Export Association, pledging to buy more than $1.4 billion in U.S. agricultural products, of which soybeans are a key category.
The Southeast Asian market appears to be hot, but in the face of the original Chinese market, it is immediately visible.
It is clear to us that Indonesia’s pledged $900 million in soybeans imports annually, plus Vietnam’s $1.4 billion in agricultural procurement (not just soybeans), are less than two percent of China’s previous $12.6 billion in purchasing power.
In the words of American Bean Farmers themselves, “You can’t find a market that will replace China overnight.”
Some analysts pointed out pointedly that the procurement scale of Southeast Asian countries is not enough to fully fill the market gap caused by China's reduction in imports.
This is undoubtedly a difficult time for the bean farmers in the Midwestern region of the United States.
The Wall Street Journal reported that China was once the largest soybean buyer in the United States, and now losing this market has caused the U.S. soybean industry to encounter serious export difficulties.
The value of U.S. soybeans exports to China in 2025 is expected to drop dramatically from $12.8 billion in 2024 to about $6 billion, losing half of Yangtze River.
At the same time, the backlog of soybean stocks in the United States is serious. According to the October report of the United States Department of Agriculture, the ending stocks of soybeans in the United States were stable at an ultra-high level of 550 million bushels.
It is conceivable that on one hand, there are unsaleable soybeans and on the other hand, there is plummeting prices. The anxiety of soybean farmers is spreading in the fields.
At the same time that China stopped buying American soybeans, China didn't let itself fall into a shortage.
China has turned around and increased its soybean imports from other countries. From January to July 2025, China imported 42.26 million tons of soybeans from Brazil, a year-on-year increase of 25%, setting a new high for the same period.
This is 2.5 times more than imports from the United States.
In addition, China also seized the opportunity of Argentina's temporary cancellation of grain export taxes and quickly placed an order for at least 10 ships of Argentine soybeans-3.
The data show that from 1st to 8th of 2025, China's total import of soybeans was 7331,24 million tons, of which Brazil accounted for 71.6%, while the U.S. accounted for 22.8%.
In the face of the situation, the U.S. government has tried to take rescue measures.The White House has proposed to provide funding to U.S. farmers, with White House officials and congressmen constantly winding up, saying the total rescue funding could reach $15 billion.
These promises, however, were small, and by the beginning of October, the policy had not yet been adopted.
Further complicating matters, the U.S. federal government shut down due to a bipartisan stalemate, and about 750,000 employees were on unpaid leave. In this situation, the bailout plan can hardly be moved forward.
Even if aid can be distributed, it will still solve the fundamental dilemma.
Raglan, chairman of the American Soybean Association, bluntly said that the government's subsidies and plans are only "OK strains on the wound" and will never make the farm's bottom line complete.