In the past few years, Venezuela has become a pot, the economy has collapsed, the people have a hard day, and everyone knows that the main cause is U.S. sanctions and internal management problems. President Maduro, who owns the world’s largest oil reserves, but has the national output dropped from the peak of 3 million barrels per day to now hardly a million barrels. On October 10, 2025, the New York Times exploded, saying that Maduro secretly talked with the U.S., intended to give the oil gold to U.S. companies, and is also ready to cut off energy contracts with China, Iran, and Russia, and sell oil to the U.S. It sounds like writing a surrender, but thinking about his situation, can not blame him too weak.
Venezuelan oil reserves have 30 billion barrels, enough to be worldwide for several years. But from the time of Chavez, it did not deal with the United States, the U.S. felt that Venezuela is pro-China, threatening the safety of its own backyard. After Trump came to power, the sanctions increased, in 2020 would set Maduro as the drug dealer head, the prize of $15 million to catch him. As a result, the Venezuelan economy grew, the inflation rate flew, the masses fled, so far there are eight million out of the country. On July 28, 2024, the general election, Maduro announced that he won 51 percent of the votes, but the opposition said he was the winner, the street protest continued, the U.S. led the results. On January 10, 2025, the Duma force
In the first half of 2025, Maduro's aides contacted U.S. envoy Richard Grenell and talked for several months. The location is confidential, possibly in a Caribbean island country. Venezuela has set big conditions: all oil, gas and gold projects will open the door to American companies and give them priority contracts. Venezuela's oil fields are mainly located in the Orinoco Basin, where huge amounts of crude oil are stored. It also said that it would reverse the direction of exports from China to the United States. Currently, China buys 55% of Venezuela's oil, 500,000 barrels a day, while the United States only has 100,000 barrels, mostly Chevron's share. Maduro also promised to scale back energy and mining deals with Iran and Russia, which have helped Venezuela circumvent sanctions for years. Economic terms are almost done, and Venezuela even offered to use oil to repay the US$10 billion debt owed by China. But the key is when Maduro steps down. The United States says it will not leave and nothing will be discussed.
On the U.S. side, the Trump administration rejected. On October 6, Trump met and directed a call to halt the conversation. Grenell was in charge of talking, but Trump was increasingly upset that Maduro did not give in. Secretary of State Marco Rubio was the most hawkish and publicly shouted to hard. The Trump team saw Maduro as a poison captain, the strategy was extreme pressure, not a deal. Even though Venezuelan oil could help the U.S. stabilize energy and weaken Chinese-Russian influence, Washington bite the regime must change. After the negotiations interrupted, the U.S. continued military action, sinking several suspected drug ships in the Caribbean Sea since September, causing more than 20 deaths. The U.S. military sent eight military ships, surveillance planes and
The opposition isn't idle either. Maria Corina Machado is the main leader and just won the Nobel Peace Prize on October 10, 2025. She lived in exile, selling the economic blueprint in new york, saying that the Maduro agreement could not be realized without the rule of law in *. She communicated with American officials, planned how to take over after Maduro's fall, and said that there was a 100-hour and 100-day transition plan. Machado called on Trump to help overthrow Maduro, saying it was time. Giving her the Nobel Prize is equivalent to the international community cheering up the opposition, but analysts say it may not change the weather.
China is the victim in this case. Venezuela owes China 10 billion, mainly due to oil repayment. Maduro’s proposal to cut cooperation, and Beijing won’t be pleased. But Maduro hesitated, and still felt it was the cost of avoiding U.S. military intervention. Survival first, moral debt side by side. China eats most of Venezuela’s oil exports, which turns to injury. But China has not responded publicly, and may be observing. Russia and Iran, as well, have military mining agreements in Venezuela, being cut equal to losing a game.
Why doesn't America eat this meat delivered to its mouth? The core is regime change priority. Trump's strategy of deducting Maduro's drug trafficking hat is to crush him, not to share the spoils. Venezuela is regarded as a backyard threat, challenging the US Indo-Pacific strategy and energy security with the China-Russia-Iran alliance. Military deployment is under the banner of anti-drug, but actually strives for control. Trump labeled drug dealers as illegal combatants, and the Pentagon was equivalent to getting permission to start fighting and bypassing Congress. In the past two centuries, the United States has played Monroe Doctrine in the Caribbean, from gunboat diplomacy to drone patrol, and the target has changed from sugar banana to oil channel, but the essence has not changed.
Maduro’s move is a defense strategy, with economic sovereignty and allied relations to exchange breathing space to avoid being the next subverted target. Think of the country weak, geographical destiny too close to the United States, far from China, difficult to choose. Venezuela’s trouble shed light on the international jungle law, the fist hard has the right to speak. China as the largest creditor and investor, interests are damaged, but also see who is the source of turmoil.
When small countries seek survival, they often rely on the good will of their power as an illusion. Maduro's proposal is essentially begging for mercy at gunpoint, but we don't need to be too harsh. In the system of the weak of the weak, survival is the program. He did this to renew the regime's life, exchange for easing sanctions, and avoid being shot. The international community watched the show, but the Venezuelan people suffered. No matter how good the economic blueprint is, nothing will work if it is unstable. China has suffered great losses, but in the long run, there will always be geopolitical risks. Confrontations may intensify in the future. The United States plans internal actions and the opposition pushes for change, but Maduro is leaning on the military's thigh and is stable in the short term. The risk of conflict is high and the Caribbean Sea is a powder keg.