It has been more than three years since the Russia-Ukraine conflict fought from February 2022 to October 2025. The Russian army is still advancing little by little in Donbas, and Ukraine also fights back from time to time. The Kursk region is quite fierce. Russia controls about 18% of Ukraine's land, but the battle line is stalemate, and no one can think of a quick victory. People from the outside world always ask, why doesn't China just jump in and help Russia? Supposedly, China's strength is there. If you give some weapons or send someone over, you may be able to help end this matter. If Russia really fails, will NATO's next target be China? This idea sounds reasonable, but when you think about it carefully, you have to start from the big picture. It's not that China doesn't want to help, but there are three key points that determine that it can't end directly and has to keep a distance.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union at the end of 1991, Russia at first wanted to have a good relationship with the West. Yeltsin when the president went to the United States in 1992 to talk about NATO membership, Clinton was joked for half a day. After Putin came to power in 2000, the previous years did not talk to the United States, and after the 2001 911 events, also helped the United States to provide intelligence, so that the US military base in Central Asia to fight Afghanistan. NATO began to expand east from 1999, pushed ahead of Poland, Hungary these countries, in 2004 added Estonia, Latvia something, pressed Russia's buffer zone smaller and smaller. Ukraine in 2014 regime changed, pro-Western rule, Russia annexed Crimea, support the eastern secession forces.
On February 24, 2022, Russia directed out the troops and soon hit near Kiev, but Ukraine resisted heavily, coupled with the anti-tank missiles and air defense systems given by the West, Russia withdrew and turned to the east to fight. In September 2022, Russia incorporated Donetsk in those places into itself, through a referendum. The West continued to sanction, freeze assets, restrict energy exports. The North Stream pipeline exploded in September 2022, and Europe completely broke Russian natural gas and bought US liquefied gas. In 2023, Ukraine counterattacked the south, with no great progress. Russia mobilized 300,000 troops, Ukraine also expanded. NATO continued to expand, Finland entered in April 2023, Sweden entered in March 2024. In 2025, the war was still dragged so, Russia took a spot in Addis Ababa, Ukraine
Why doesn't China help directly? Many people think that China and Russia are iron buddies and should rush forward. But the reality is that China remains neutral and does not choose sides, but does so in private energy trade. This is not a question of whether to help or not, but a clear calculation of the advantages and disadvantages. First, the international situation does not allow it. China's trade with the EU is very large. In 2024, bilateral trade will be almost 800 billion US dollars. China used to sell cars and electronics, and obtain high-end equipment, lithography machines, aviation parts, etc. from Germany and France. If Russia is openly given weapons, the West will immediately regard it as participating in the war and offend the entire EU and the United States. Sino-US relations are already tense, but the EU is a big market in China and cannot be easily lost.
Russia was also close to the West in the past. As soon as the Soviet Union broke up, Yeltsin promoted economic reforms, which shrank GDP to one-twentieth of that of the United States. He also reduced nuclear weapons and abandoned the construction of aircraft carriers. Putin had a good relationship with Clinton in his early years. However, the United States pushed NATO's eastward expansion, and Russia felt trapped. This is why the United States is happy to see Europe rely on its natural gas and has strong control. If China intervenes, Western sanctions will cause great losses. In 2025, the European Union also sanctioned two banks in China, saying it helped Russia's military industry. China is limited in exporting drone parts, which will affect Ukraine's defense, but China Foreign Minister Wang Yi told the EU's Karas that China does not support Russia losing because the United States will turn to China. But China did not have direct military assistance, insisting that if it really helped, it would have ended long ago. This is balance, helping Russia not fall, but not directly ending and offending the West.
Secondly, the lesson of history lies there. China-Russia relations are not a smooth one. During the Soviet period, when the treaty was signed in 1858, Russia took 600,000 square kilometers of land north of the Yangtze River. The Treaty of Beijing in 1860 and the 400,000 square kilometers east of the Yangtze River in Nausuri. The total occupation of China was more than 1.5 million square kilometers. During the Soviet period, promoting the independence of Mongolia, the 1945 treaty confirmed the area of 156 million square kilometers. In the 1950s, the Soviet border troops were stationed, and the island was fought in 1969. In 1958, the Soviet Union wanted to build a long-wave radio station along the coast of China, and in July the joint fleet was placed
China refused, and Khrushchev's visit to China failed to succeed. Nuclear assistance was suspended in 1959, experts were withdrawn in 1960, and projects were terminated. China had no choice but to engage in third-line construction since 1964, moving its factories to the mountains of the mainland, spending a lot of money, and the pace of development was chaotic. These things remind people that when a neighboring country is strong, we must be on guard. Some people in Russia's strategic circles still regard China as a potential threat and restrict the sale of sensitive technology. China cooperates with Russia, but mutual trust is limited. History tells us that emotions cannot maintain international relations, but depends on interests. China does not want to repeat the same mistake and directly helps Russia, which is risky.
Third, national interests are the most important. China is close to Russia because they are both under pressure from the United States. Russia is squeezed by NATO, and China is contained in science and technology and trade. In 2024, China will buy more than 100 million tons of oil from Russia, with deep energy cooperation. However, Russia has 5,977 nuclear warheads, a vast territory and great mobilization potential. The West does not dare to give F-16 or long-range missiles for fear of nuclear upgrade. China gives priority to its own development, and it will take time to develop chips and new energy.
It ends directly, becomes a target of the West, and loses the European market and technology. China has benefited from Russia's drag on the West. U.S. troops are reloaded in Poland and Romania, satellites are staring at Eastern Europe, and there is little pressure on the Asia-Pacific region. China is neutral, energy business is doing, and calls for negotiations. In 2025, the Chinese Foreign Minister said that he did not support Russia's defeat, but there was no military assistance. Russia relies on China, and its economy turns to Asia, becoming a resource supplier to China. China doesn't want Russia to win too much or lose too badly. If it wins, it may threaten China, and if it loses, the United States will turn around. China keeps its distance and strives for a window of development.
By October 2025, the war entered the 44th month, Russia pushed for Donbas, Ukraine counter Kursk. Russia mobilized new troops, Ukraine expanded. NATO helped in, the US considered tactical missiles. Putin also controlled Russia, the economy relied on Asia. China insisted on neutrality, trade is normal, help Russia not isolated, but not directly to the battle. This strategy gives China time, build naval, air force, break through technology. Russia holds the West, China is less pressured. In the long run, China is strong, others naturally come by, rather than rolling in other battle. China is not to help, but to calculate the international, history, interests of these three points, to help Russia not to fall, but not to bet on its own development results.