During the night, China¡¯s two major neighbors met at the border.Why did the Taliban turn from Pakistan¡¯s ¡°close ally¡± to Pakistan¡¯s ¡°enemy number one¡±?What was India¡¯s role in it?

According to CNN news reports, Pakistan and Afghanistan have recently erupted in the most intense conflict since the Taliban took over the Afghan regime.

The number of casualties by the two sides is shocking: Pakistan has claimed to have killed ¡°more than 200 Taliban members and affiliated terrorists¡± and has claimed to have killed 23 soldiers; while the Arab side has claimed to have destroyed 25 Pakistani posts and killed 58 Pakistani soldiers.

The war spread from the border post to Kabul, Afghanistan¡¯s capital, with Pakistani fighter jets crashing across the border and carrying out precision airstrikes on ¡°terrorist camps¡± in the suburbs of Kabul.

According to the report, Pakistan in this air strike mobilized the JF-17 "Dragon" fighter aircraft, the US-made F-16 fighter aircraft and the Chinese "Winged Dragon" drone, accurately ordered the Taliban located in the Jandosar post, Durani training camp, Gaznaly legion headquarters and other key facilities, the blasts of the blast red night sky.

In response, the Afghan Taliban armed forces subsequently launched massive night attacks on the Pakistani border post.

It is worth noting that during the conflict, Atta's A-29 "Super Giant Bird" strike aircraft accidentally succeeded in escaping the interception of Pakistan's Red Flag 9 and Red Flag 16 air defense systems deployed in the back.

But this is not because of the poor performance of China's air defense system. The main reason is deployment loopholes caused by Pakistan's focus of air defense in the direction of India.

After all, to Pakistan, the Indian Air Force poses a greater threat than the Atta Air Force. In other words, Pakistan's underestimation of the enemy was also an important factor in the Atta Air Force's successful raid.

Immediately afterwards, the war spread rapidly, and Pakistan even rarely deployed 122mm rockets and SH-15 self-propelled guns to carry out cross-border strikes.

Super Tucano attack aircraft

Pakistan's Prime Minister announced the closure of all border crossings, vowing to make a "strong and effective response", and the relationship between the two countries fell to freezing point.

The conflict is on the surface border friction, but inside it is wrapped with complex historical grievances and geographical conflicts.

First of all, the root causes of the conflict go back to 1994. Pakistan and Afghanistan were once regarded as "brotherly countries." At that time, Afghanistan was plunged into civil war and chaos. In order to seek "strategic depth," Pakistan's ISI fully supported the Taliban movement with Pashtun students at its core.

With the support of Palestinian funds, weapons and personnel, the Taliban grew from a few hundred to an armed force of tens of thousands in just a few years, and finally captured Kabul in 1996.

Pakistan's original intention was to control Afghanistan through the pro-Pakistani regime and suppress the separatist tendencies of its country's Pushto people.

However, international politics has no eternal allies, only eternal interests.

After the Taliban settled in Kabul, the ideology quickly crossed national boundaries.

In 2007, with the support of ATA, the Pakistani Taliban was founded, vowing to overthrow the Pakistani government.

On the surface, Atta denied shielding Bata, emphasized that he was a "political and military organization" and promised to "not allow Afghan territory to be used to threaten other countries".

But the reality is that Bata is increasingly active in the Arab territory, and its leaders have even appeared publicly in Kabul.

Atta refused to acknowledge the Duran line drawn by Britain in 1893, insisting that the Pushtu should be "united under one order"; on the other hand, its internal sympathizers for Batta were numerous, and the cleansing operations were always thunderful.

This gesture of ¡°smell and hardness¡± continues to make Afghanistan a hotbed for terrorism.In addition to Bata, ISIS-K and Balochistan armed groups are also active, threatening the security of the whole of South Asia.

This also made Pakistan gradually lose patience and finally chose to use fighter jets to strike across borders to vent its anger.

Secondly, India is also a key factor.

In addition to supporting Bata, the Taliban regime in Afghanistan is getting closer and closer to India.

Just a day before the airstrike, Afghan Foreign Minister Mutaki visited the new border, and the two sides announced the restoration of diplomatic relations and the upgrading of the Indian technical group in Kabul to an embassy.

Mutaki has publicly called India a "close friend", and in the joint statement even appeared the expression that "Kashmir belongs to India".

India has actively attracted the Taliban in recent years, and there are several considerations behind it:

On the one hand, China and the Taliban are getting closer and closer, with the Chinese-Pakistan economic corridor intended to extend to Afghanistan, raising New Delhi's concerns of being marginalized; on the other hand, India is trying to bypass Pakistan through the "International South-North Transport Corridor" to reach the Central Asian energy market.

For the Taliban, accepting China investment while opening up the diplomatic window to India is a kind of "balanced diplomacy."

But this tactic seriously hits the Pakistani red line.

The Pakistani side sees India's approach as a "goose blow", as a "strategic betrayal" - the agents it supported in the past are getting closer and closer to hostile India.

Pakistan's Foreign Ministry denounced Atta's "lack of sensitivity to the sacrifice of the Kashmiri people" and warned that nearly 4 million unauthorized Afghan refugees might be expelled. This military operation is not only anti-terrorism, but also a severe warning to Atta.

However, despite the fierce fighting, the possibility of all-out war is low.

The Taliban¡¯s announcement of the ¡°end of retaliation,¡± while seeking urgent intervention from Saudi Arabia, Iran and other countries, exposed the core difficulties facing the Taliban regime: bothining traditional support for Bata to consolidate internal rule, and the urgent need for the international community to recognize its legitimacy.

Therefore, personally, I think that the future situation may show a trend of "combining talks and talks":

Pakistan put pressure through precise military operations, while using mediation from Saudi Arabia, China and other countries to promote Atta to clear Bata; while the Taliban will continue to sway between India and Pakistan to maximize their interests.

But it should be noted that the survival of the Pakistani Taliban will become the core of the protracted war.

If the Afghan Taliban fails to completely cut off their ties with this sister organization, similar border conflicts will break out periodically, but a complete abandonment of the Pakistani Taliban could also trigger the hard-fighting rebellion in Afghanistan.

That is to say, as long as the ¡°Greater Pushtijnism¡± is not removed, the border war on Abu Dhabi may resume at any time.