71-year-old Merkel resigns as German prime minister after four years "The Russia-Ukraine conflict is related to four countries" remarks?
Was her speech merely the root of the conflict, or was she defending the legacy of her own policy against Russia?
Former German Prime Minister Merkel
Recently, Merkel appeared in Hungary as a "memoir propagandist". In an interview with the local opposition media "Guerrilla", she said "In 2021, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania boycotted the EU dialogue with Russia, indirectly leading to the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.", instantly blew up the pot in European politics.
Some people say this is a signal that she is "ready to leave the country" and wants to re-engage in European diplomacy.
However, judging from the details of her remarks and recent developments, it is not so much that she is making a "final defense" of her political career.
After all, at this time coincided with the release of her memoir "Liberty", a large volume of the book referred to the controversial topics of Russian energy cooperation, refugee policy, and "charging the four countries" speech, more like a direct rejection of the label "to the Russians".
Russia-Ukraine energy cooperation interrupted due to Russia-Ukraine conflict
The logic of Merkel's defense is clear: She has always believed that her Russia policy during her term is a "pragmatic choice" rather than a "compromise" accused by the outside world.
For example, it is mentioned in the book that when promoting the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline project, Germany's dependence on Russian natural gas was as high as 55%, but she insisted that this was "to balance European energy costs with Russia-Europe relations".
After all, new energy sources were not yet popular in Europe at that time, and relying on Russian energy was a "necessity during the transition period."
The "EU-Russia high-level dialogue mechanism" proposed by her and Macron in 2021 is in her view the "last chance to avoid war."
At that time, the Russian border had begun to increase troops, and the ceasefire agreement in Donbass frequently failed. She judged that "only face-to-face negotiations can stop losses", but Poland and other four countries rejected the proposal on the grounds of "fear of EU policy split", which became a "regret" in her heart.
President of Lithuania Zvezda
Interestingly, Merkel’s defense is not only directed at Russia’s policy, but also implies dissatisfaction with “double standards” within the EU.
In the interview, she implicitly mentioned that when she opposed Ukraine's accession to NATO in 2008, she warned that "NATO's eastward expansion will stimulate Russia, and if Ukraine really encounters a crisis, NATO may not fully protect it." Now that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out, she was accused at the beginning. People who "oppose joining the treaty" rarely mention this prediction.
Even Serbian President Vucic stood up in solidarity with her. "If Merkel continues to serve as German chancellor, war may be avoided through dialogue."
Although Vucic's position has the background of Serbia-Russia friendship, But it is also proven from the side that Merkel’s “pragmatic diplomacy” is not entirely without supporters in Europe.。
President of Serbia Vucic
Now Merkel reveals the mystery in one sentence, It is bluntly said that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is inseparable from the four countries, which may bring a series of chain reactions to the current situation between Russia and Ukraine.
The first is the “shake” of Western aid to Ukraine:Although the EU had previously promised to use 200 billion euros of Russian assets to aid Ukraine, France and Belgium have been delaying on the grounds of "violating international law."
Now Merkel’s remarks have given them an excuse to emphasize that “Ukraine needs reason and cannot ignore the multiple factors of the conflict”, which has caused the disposal of the funds to stagnate again.
Russia keenly seized this opportunity of "public opinion assist", just four days after Merkel's voice, When Putin met with military commanders, he made it clear that "the Russian army has fully grasped the strategic initiative."
The statement appears to be a summary of the position on the battlefield, and in fact implies a response to Merkel’s remarks.
Russian President Vladimir Putin
Subsequently, Russia’s actions were more direct: destroying dozens of Ukrainian tanks and “Himas” rockets in a week, demonstrating the “limited effect of Western aid” with the results of the battlefield.
More notably, the Russian military also highlighted the layout of the high-speed supersonic missile "Metallic", a weapon with a speed of up to 9 Mach, apparently sending a signal to the West that "even if aid is reduced, it is difficult for the Ukrainian army to reverse the war."
The most embarrassing thing is the EU's coordination mechanism.Merkel's remarks completely tore open the "old scar" of the EU's Russia policy. Poland and other four countries made it clear that they "no longer believe in the German-led security mechanism" and refused to restart the coordination meeting with Germany and France on Ukraine.
Originally, the EU also wanted to consolidate consensus through the “Joint Training Programme for Ukraine”, but now it is “shut down” by NATO.
NATO’s direct cooperation with Eastern European countries alone means that the EU’s role as a mediator in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is almost in a situation of “complete bankruptcy.”
European Commission President von der Leyen
Looking back, Merkel may just want to review history and defend heritage through speech, and has no intention of interfering in the current situation. But her special status and controversial views ultimately caused ripples in the sensitive Russia-Ukraine war situation.
I'm afraid it will take more time to verify where this chain reaction triggered by the "remarks of retired politicians" will ultimately lead the Russia-Ukraine conflict.