One wave, one wave again!

If the unchanging thing in this world is change, then the unchanging thing in the current international situation may be turmoil and chaos.

When the conflict in Pakistan is temporarily over, and the heart of the international community finally falls, Suddenly another conflict broke out.

From the late night of 11th to the early morning of 12th local time, Pakistan and Afghanistan engaged in a fierce exchange of fire on the border. As for the cause of the conflict, both sides hold different opinions, and both identify the other side as the first.

In addition, in the outcome of the conflict, both sides of the Abbas were also committed.

The Pakistani side issued a notification that during the Abu Dhabi conflict, the Pakistani military aircraft crossed the border and launched airstrikes on the Afghan capital Kabul. As a result, more than 200 Afghan soldiers were killed, while 23 Pakistani soldiers were killed and 29 others were injured.

In a briefing from the Afghan side, Afghan troops shelled border posts in Pakistan and took control of at least 25 posts. 58 Pakistani soldiers were killed and 30 others were woundedAs far as the victims are concerned, Afghanistan is not mentioned.

That is, the current conflict in Abu Dhabi has caused more than 400 people to die, and as the conflict continues, it is not excluded that subsequent warfare further escalates, and the number of casualties will increase.

within this, At least three observation points cannot be ignored.

First, this Ba'a conflict broke out and there was a big doorway behind it.

First, there are many problems left over from history between Afghanistan and Pakistan.There is no actual clear border line between the two countries.

In 1893, Britain drew a "Durand Line" on the Afghan-Pakistani border, dividing the traditional Pashtun settlement into two, half of which was assigned to Pakistan and the other half to Afghanistan. However, the Afghan government has always refused to recognize the legitimacy of the "Durand Line", while Pakistan insists on maintaining this border line. Since the two sides have been arguing over this matter, conflicts and confrontations have broken out many times during this period.

Secondly, the outbreak of the conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan is a certain "drama".

After the US military withdrew from Afghanistan in 2021, the Afghan Taliban made a comeback and took charge of Afghanistan.

It is that at the beginning of the rise of ATA, there was a certain link with the support of Pakistan, and now the intense conflict between the two sides is indeed defiant.

Third, the evolution of geopolitical games has also laid the groundwork for the Afghanistan-Pakistan conflict.

Since the situation in India has been in a situation of sword and sword, Afghanistan in the western part of Pakistan is justifiably the target of India's attraction, and India was the main strategic partner of the former Afghan government before Atta took power.

After Atta came to power, India began to retreat to Afghanistan.

It is worth noting that just the day before the Afghanistan-Pakistan conflict broke out, Afghan Foreign Minister Mottaki visited India and announced the reconstruction of diplomatic relations between Afghanistan and India.

Pakistan will obviously not remain indifferent to the "close interaction" between Afghanistan and India. Whether this will be one of the triggers for the outbreak of the Afghanistan and Pakistan conflict is still uncertain.

But it can be assured that from the initial "intimate relationship", to today's revenge, the Abu Dhabi conflict is not estimated to be easily ended, and India will obviously not be indifferent, and is likely to shut up and support Afghanistan.

As a result, the conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan may continue to escalate.

Second, the outbreak of the Abbas conflict may have had early signs.

Recently, Pakistan has stepped up its anti-terrorism operations in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, killing a large number of Pakistani Taliban militants.

Be aware that Bata and ATA exist differently, the former are classified as ¡°extremist organizations¡± by many countries around the world and have planned attacks on Pakistani territory on several occasions.

More notably, the province of Keber-Pushto is located on the Pakistan border and on the other side is Afghanistan.

Pakistan has said, Atta is suspected of providing ¡°asylum¡± to Bata.said Bata may have received "support and funding from certain forces" to launch terrorist attacks in Pakistan.

As for who the "certain forces" are in Pakistan's mouth, it is obviously not difficult to guess who is the most hostile to them near Pakistan. Pakistan's continuous "anti-terrorism" operations in the border areas are not ruled out as the main factor leading to the outbreak of the Afghanistan-Pakistan conflict.

Third, the outbreak of the Afghanistan-Pakistan conflict may lead to a series of international reactions.

On the one hand, before the conflict broke out, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed The Common Defence Treaty,It is mentioned, An attack on one of the Contracting Parties shall be regarded as an attack on the other.

Therefore, based on the treaty, Whether Saudi Arabia will support Pakistan will also be a key factor influencing the course of Abbas¡¯s situation.

During the Afghan war, more than four million Afghan refugees fled to Pakistan.

To this end, after the conflict broke out, Pakistan said that in the past few decades, Pakistan has generously accepted more than 4 million Afghan refugees, and now the situation in Afghanistan has stabilized. It is time for these Afghans to return to their country.

In other words, if ATA chooses ¡°NGV¡±, Pakistan is not accustomed, and if the conflict continues to escalate, the more than 4 million Afghans will be forced to leave Pakistan and return to Afghanistan, which will be a major blow to the ATA government.

Of course, the most affected are the innocent civilians.

Finally, let¡¯s talk about two rough opinions.

The Abu Dhabi conflict has erupted, or will involve major forces and regional unrest.

On the one hand, India, which has a strong relationship with Pakistan, will obviously not remain indifferent, and will inevitably develop a positive layout, putting pressure on the Pakistani side, and subsequently prompting an escalation of the situation in India.

But at present, India has not made any response and is in a state of silence.

On the other hand, the United States and Britain, which have always handed their hands on the situation in India and Pakistan, will obviously not miss this opportunity to intervene in the regional situation.

Do not forget that in the conflict in India at the beginning of this year, the United States and Britain were actively involved. among them, Trump also claimed to have "successfully mediated the conflict in India", but was denied by India.

At the moment, however, the United States and France are also in a state of silence.

Therefore, if the conflict escalates in Abu Dhabi, it will be another hot spot that explodes the situation in the region.

2. If you come out and mix, you will have to pay back sooner or later. Pakistan and Atta obviously both know which is right and which is wrong.

while Conflict is a double-edged sword. Apart from bringing turmoil and catastrophe, it will not do any good.The Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the Palestinian conflict have proved this.

Pakistan and Afghanistan are facing a severe economic and social crisis. The urgent task is to develop the economy and improve people's livelihood, instead of obsessing about conflicts and confrontations.

What matters, where to go next, both sides have to think clearly.