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To say that China's surroundings have not been peaceful since the beginning of this year, first the conflict between India and Pakistan in May, and then the conflict between Myanmar and Thailand. Immediately afterwards, according to AFP, fierce conflicts also broke out in Pakistan and Afghanistan on October 12 local time.
Up to now, the Pakistani military said that 23 Pakistani soldiers were killed and 29 injured. More than 200 fighters of the Afghan Taliban died in night border clashes.
It is strange, why did Pakistan and Afghanistan fight again?
The direct trigger was a terrorist attack in Kuram County, Cape Province, Pakistan on October 8. 16 people in the Pakistan army, including a lieutenant colonel and a major, became the trigger for this Pakistan air strike on Afghanistan.
Pakistan believes that the attack was planned by the Taliban in Pakistan, with the support of the Afghan Taliban behind it, which is why this conflict occurred. In essence, the Afghan Taliban was suspected of stirring trouble behind it, and then Pakistan began to carry out military retaliation and attacks.
According to an official statement from Pakistan: The precise attacks and ground raids targeted Taliban camps and posts and terrorist training facilities.”。
But this problem comes. As we all know, Pakistan and Afghanistan are neighbors, and the relationship between the two countries is very complicated. The Taliban in Afghanistan usually flirt with Pakistan a lot. After all, the United States has been fighting terrorism for so many years and finally eliminated Bin Laden in Pakistan.
It can be seen that Pakistan's private ties with the Afghan Taliban are still very close. Previously, it was said that it was "raising bandits and respecting themselves" in exchange for even blackmailing various support from the United States and cooperation in anti-terrorism.
Although the U.S. troops are now withdrawing from Afghanistan and the Afghan Taliban are in power, the relationship with Pakistan is still relatively stable.While the incident was caused by the Pakistani Taliban, you said that there is no involvement and support from the Afghan Taliban behind it.
But the question is, where did the Afghan Taliban, who had experienced decades of war and had just started to rebuild the regime, have the courage and lazy heart to stumble on Pakistan?
There must actually be an Indian reason for this.
Not to mention that India and Pakistan have just ended the air war between India and Pakistan, and India is full of anger and wants revenge. As natural geostrategic opponents, it is impossible for the two to be completely peaceful. The so-called enemy of the enemy is a friend. Since India will not take advantage of the confrontation with Pakistan in the short term, provoking hostile forces in Pakistan to consume Pakistan's energy is a strategy to save the country.
And since this year, the number of violent conflicts suffered within Pakistan has increased, and coincidentally, since the Indo-Pakistan 57 air war, the violent conflict in Pakistan has increased by 74%, with a sharp rise in August, with 143 violent attacks occurring in a month. There is no provocation and influence from India behind this, fearlessly hard to believe.
Moreover, when Pakistan attacked Afghanistan this time, the Afghan Foreign Minister paid an emergency visit to India. This clearly shows that the Afghan Taliban and India are linked. Even though the two are not linked in this incident, at least It can be proved that India and the Afghan Taliban regard each other as helpers against Pakistan.
But in theory, even with India's back support, the Afghan Taliban is not afraid to blame Pakistan too much, after all, both are neighbors, and the national power is not at the same level.
Perhaps you may ask, isn't the United States the Taliban's sworn enemy? On September 11, 2021, the U.S. military had completely withdrawn from Afghanistan. Why did Trump still cause trouble? But in reality, there are no eternal enemies or eternal friends, only eternal interests.
First of all, the US military was not driven out of Afghanistan by the Taliban, but voluntarily withdrew.
Although the US-backed Afghan government quickly collapsed after the US military withdrawal, this is not a big relationship with the Taliban, it is the incompetence of the former Afghan government, the Taliban belongs to passively accepting the Afghan regime.
The relationship between the United States and Afghanistan has been long-standing.
Perhaps many people don't know that in the early days of the Taliban and bin Laden, Afghanistan and the United States had a very close relationship. When the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in the 1980s, the United States secretly supported it. Later, after the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the 9/11 incident, the United States had a bad relationship with Afghanistan and the Taliban. In other words, they had a good relationship before.
And yesterday's enemies can become friends today. For example, the current Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa (Julani), who used to be a globally wanted terrorist in the United States, is now Trump's guest. So enemies are not eternal, interests are.
Finally, the current United States needs to hook up with the Taliban.
Because the U.S. hopes to be able to return to Afghanistan, and returning to Afghanistan is unavoidable to the Taliban.The main purpose of the U.S. return to Afghanistan is to intervene in Central Asia, thereby containing China.
Because in terms of geography, Afghanistan is a crossroads between Central Asia, South Asia, East Asia and the Middle East. Since the Taliban took power, many economic and trade cooperation has been developed with China in the reconstruction process. The United States believes that if China penetrates its influence into Afghanistan, it can directly influence the Middle East through Afghanistan, which is a great threat to the U.S. Middle East strategy.
Moreover, China has always been deeply worried about the security of its overseas oil routes and energy bases. If it can communicate with the Middle East by land through Afghanistan, it will undoubtedly greatly improve the safety factor of China's energy imports. Therefore, just in terms of restricting China's energy, the United States does not want to give up Afghanistan easily and always thinks about coming back.
Moreover, from a military perspective, many of China's strategic nuclear weapons deployment and new weapons testing bases are located in Xinjiang, because Xinjiang is deep inland, with Russia in the north, Central Asia in the west and Afghanistan, once the sworn enemy of the United States, without the involvement of American forces. Therefore, it is relatively safe to test and deploy strategic nuclear weapons here, and testing various weapons is also highly confidential.
But if the U.S. returns to Afghanistan, then it is possible to monitor China's larger back-to-back Xinjiang from the west, which belongs to the act of copying the back-to-back path. In geographical terms, it can also form an enclosure of China, and can also influence Central Asia, thereby giving Russia strategic pressure from the south.
When the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, Afghanistan was a close friend of the United States, after the 911 events, both were enemies, and now Afghanistan is angry with Pakistan, and again with India, there is a need for reconstruction, which can also be the object of the United States.
So the conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan, behind the scenes more than one, at least is the first step under a large scale developed by the United States and India, the future of the scam will inevitably have more "fall", we China should be especially alert, prepare early!