Batie, is it still iron?
What has happened to the recent sudden escalation of the conflict in Afghanistan and Pakistan?
Pakistani officials confirmed yesterday that the war between Afghanistan and Pakistan has resulted in 23 deaths on the Pakistani side and more than 200 members of the Taliban and their affiliates
Afghan officials say the Albanian army has successfully seized 25 Pakistani military posts and 58 Pakistani soldiers have been killed.
Both sides are declaring victory, both say they have won
The incident was caused by a battle of the "Pakistan Taliban" (Bata) against the regular Pakistani army, which killed 11 Pakistani soldiers.
This angered Pakistan, so it ordered cross-border bombing and sent warplanes into Afghanistan to bomb the "Bata" lair
Here is a little bit about how "Bata" came about? This stems from the "masterpiece" of the United States and the Soviet Union
During the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, Pakistan provided money, weapons and intelligence to support the anti-Soviet forces in Afghanistan. This is the "Afghan Taliban"
Pakistan hopes to support the Taliban, seize the Afghan regime, and then build a “pro-Pakistani anti-India” coalition
In 1996, the Taliban officially seized power in Afghanistan, Pakistan's strategic objectives were achieved, and although he was the sponsor of the Taliban in Afghanistan, only three countries in the world recognized the Taliban regime: Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE.
After the 2001 911 U.S. troops in Afghanistan, the Pakistani government stands at the crossroads of history
At the time, US Deputy Secretary of State Richard personally called the director of the Pakistani intelligence agency, clearly telling the Pakistani side that the United States is ready to fight Afghanistan, you either stand with the United States or stand with the terrorists, you choose yourself.
The Bush administration’s attitude is extremely tough, but at the same time Bush gave the carrots to Pakistan, the United States promised $5 billion in aid as long as it supports counter-terrorism, while supporting Pakistan, weakening India’s international position and adding economic investment to help Pakistan develop its economy.
Pakistan faces either the choice of supporting the U.S. in betraying the Afghan Taliban, or being completely blocked by the U.S. economy and additional military strikes to become an international orphan.
In the end, Pakistan chose to support the United States 'war on terrorism, allowing the US military to use Pakistan territory to establish bases, and fully start the war in Afghanistan
But at the same time, Pakistan also played a two-sided approach, he secretly retained the Taliban fleeing to the territory, closing an eye to the development of the Taliban in its territory, which also buried the pen for today's war.
After the United States overthrew the "Taliban regime in Afghanistan," the Atta people fled into neighboring Pakistan. Gradually, these "fugitive Atta" formed a new "Bata force" by recruiting young people to oppose the United States.
So now the “Pakistan Taliban”, is the continuation of the “Ata” who fled after the war against terrorism, Ata, Batabun is a family.
Although the Pakistani government played "two-faced tricks" and acquiesced in Bata's development in the territory, in the eyes of "Bata", the Pakistani government was a villain who betrayed his brothers and stabbed him in the back
Combined with the increasing secularization of Pakistan over the past decade and the serious damage to the “doctrine” identified by the Taliban, the “Pakistan Taliban” is becoming an increasingly clear goal to completely overthrow such an organization as the “Pakistan Government”.
Bata often launched terrorist attacks against Pakistani government personnel, soldiers, police, civilians, etc. with the aim of overthrowing the Pakistani government.
And the gang is very good at guerrilla warfare, after attacking Pakistan, they quickly return to Afghanistan, Pakistan is hindered by relations with Afghanistan (do not want to completely tear off the face), so many times are helpless (do not want to cross-border bombing), until today.
It can be said that Bata, ATA, and the relationship between the three Pakistani governments, through the history of the USSR Cold War, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the war on terrorism.
So explain this reason clearly. Who is right and who is wrong between the "Taliban" and the "Pakistani government"?
But the reality is not a split mistake, but a more complex regional strategic game than the clear pulse network.
To put it bluntly, America is back
Since the U.S. military station in Afghanistan, this place has been "no taste, unfortunate abandonment", spending huge financial and military strength, and no benefit, so it is twenty years after the occupation of Afghanistan, Biden announced the full withdrawal of U.S. troops, and gave power to the ATA he overthrew twenty years ago.
However, by 2025, Trump has significantly strengthened his relations with Pakistan, especially as the regional game continues to escalate, the United States has taken the initiative to win over Pakistan.
In May 2025, the war broke out in India and Pakistan, and the United States immediately intervened in mediation, pressuring India and supporting Pakistan.
Trump said that it was his "tariff trick" that India and Pakistan agreed to the ceasefire, but India firmly denied that the United States played any role in the ceasefire between India and Pakistan.
But the fact is that Trump’s distinctive treatment of India is obvious, giving Pakistan a tariff of 19 percent early on and a tariff of 50 percent for India, which is typical of “taking one step.”
The United States 'kindness to Pakistan made Pakistan very useful. In June, Trump met with the Chief of Staff of the Pakistan Army and had lunch together. This was the closest meeting Pakistan has had with the United States in the past ten years
To know that Pakistan has always wanted to have a good relationship with the United States, it was only a constant lack of opportunity, during the Biden period, the U.S.-Pacific relationship fell to the bottom.
Because Biden played the Indo-Pacific strategy of "Let India balance China", India at the time was the red man in front of the United States, and "Indo-Pacific revenge", the better the United States and India, the worse with Pakistan.
At the same time, Biden also planned a coup in Pakistan to further crack down on U.S. -Pakistan relations. The United States and India have significantly increased arms sales, investment, and cooperation, while all U.S. -Pakistan aid and military projects have been suspended
So Pakistan has always wanted to melt the ice with the United States, and have a good relationship with the United States, Trump initially sent olive branches in June, and Pakistan immediately took it and put it on.
In April 2025, the United States opened a global tariff war, and China is the only country in the world to implement reciprocal countermeasures against the United States.
In May, China raised rare-earth export restrictions, used rare-earth as weapons as a strong negotiation code, the United States decided to delay the taxation, China also delayed retaliation, and the two sides made a ceasefire.
In August, US Secretary of State Rubio announced that he would cooperate with Pakistan on critical minerals, and this critical mineral is rare earths
In September, Pakistan Prime Minister Sharif visited the United States and met with Trump at the White House. During the meeting, Pakistani officials took out a wooden box and opened it. Inside was the thing that the United States was most worried about and feared being stuck by China, rare earth
Pakistan told Trump that Pakistan can provide rare earths to the United States and that cooperation between the two sides in rare earths is promising
Subsequently, the United States and Pakistan signed a US $500 million first-phase critical minerals cooperation agreement to develop the mining and refining of critical minerals
On October 2, Pakistan's first batch of rare earths successfully arrived in the United States and was delivered to the United States for use
China and the United States are playing a key game with rare earth, but Pakistan is actively showing rare earth mines to the United States, to strengthen cooperation with the United States, and also shipped the first batches of rare earth to the United States.
Is Pakistan really iron, or is it all for its own benefit?
Pakistan has rare earth mines, but all the equipment and technology he refined on rare earth came from China, and he himself has no refining capabilities at all.
On October 9, China issued its "latest decision" on rare earth export controls, which emphasized that all rare earth products originating in China, or rare earth products with technology originating in China, must be approved by China before they can be traded and used, otherwise they will be sanctioned
China, and so on, blocked the path that Pakistan wants to provide rare earth to the United States privately, and in the future all Pakistani rare earth wants to sell to the United States, must be approved by China.
In addition, it is important to emphasize that Pakistan's rare earth extraction capacity is limited, which is a drop in the bucket for American demand
On October 10, Pakistan launched a "precision air strike" on the Afghan capital. The missile accurately hit a car carrying Bata's "senior personnel."
Such a precise cross-border missile strike that few countries in the world can do, either with Chinese technology or American technology.
American media analyzed that China and Atta have a good relationship and cannot support Pakistan in bombing Afghanistan. This technology is only provided by American warplanes owned by the United States and Pakistan
The United States has supported Pakistan in fighting Afghanistan, firstly to demonstrate favour to Pakistan, to strengthen Pakistan's dependence on the United States, and secondly to divide the relationship between China, India and Pakistan.
To know also in these days, Afghanistan and India embrace each other, active contacts, this is the first visit of the Afghan foreign minister to power in 2021, this is also an important strategic shift.
In the past, Pakistan wooed Afghanistan and fought against India
Now India is wooing Afghanistan to fight against Pakistan
Pakistan is sandwiched between India and Afghanistan. Once India and Afghanistan form an effective partnership, it will be an attack from both sides of the north and the south for Pakistan
It can be said that the better the relationship between India and Afghanistan, the more fearful Pakistan is and the more strong support it needs from the great powers (China and the United States).
China's weapons system helped Pakistan beat India
The U.S. weapons system helped Pakistan bomb Afghanistan
So what do you say, what medicines are sold in the hooks of Pakistan?
Recently, a more important piece of news came out that the United States will open a new port in Pakistan to directly benchmark China's Gwadar Port in Pakistan
On the left is China's Gwadar Port, and on the right is the Port of Passney, where the United States will invest. The two ports are only more than 100 kilometers apart
China's port of Guadalcanal is an important passageway to China's oil security, less than 400 kilometers from the Strait of Hormuz, and future crude oil from the Middle East will pass through the pipeline from the port of Guadalcanal to land directly into western China.
Avoiding the critical throat of the Strait of Malacca and significantly improving China's energy security
But now, next to this crucial port, there may be another “American port.”
But the Pakistani army marshal came out and rumored that the idea of the port of Pasni had never been officially discussed.
The Marshal also said: Conversations or proposals by private or commercial entities are only exploratory and should not be regarded as national initiatives.
To put it in vernacular, the current US investment in Pasni Port is just an idea of private investors. It has not been implemented, and it has not been reviewed and discussed at the government level. Don't guess blindly
Will the United States really control the Port of Pasni in the future?
So in general, there is no iron or not between countries. There are no iron friends. There are only eternal interests. Pakistan does not want to offend China, and its relationship with China is still very good
But this does not prevent him from wanting to benefit from the United States, where China and the United States eat from both sides. At the same time, as the conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan continues, Pakistan needs U.S. support even more, and the United States can reach into Pakistan more smoothly
That in the region, the game of the three sides of China and India has just begun:
China has good relations with Afghanistan and Pakistan.
India wants to woo Afghanistan
The United States wants to win over Pakistan
between the United States and the United States is a frequent game.
India and the US hate each other because of tariffs
There was a brief melting of ice between the Indians, but it appeared to be divine.
Such a complex and intertwined relationship requires superb skills to deal with, especially the coexistence of carrot and stick.