After China rejected the U.S. phone call, Trump seemed to suddenly change his personality, and the wording against China was no longer tough.So why did China refuse to talk to the U.S.?
On October 12, local time, U.S. Trade Representative Greer revealed that after China announced the expansion of rare earth export control measures, the U.S. tried to talk to the Chinese side, but the Chinese side rejected the U.S. attempt to communicate. Greer said: "After we learned this news from public channels, we quickly contacted the Chinese side, hoping to talk, but they refused."
Some analysts believe that China's move has two considerations. First, when China releases policy signals to the outside world, it needs to maintain a certain pace and initiative. Export control measures such as rare earths and superhard materials involve strategic resources and key material areas. Once announced, they will attract great attention from the outside world and market fluctuations. If China is eager for dialogue before fully prepared, it may be forced to be passive in certain details. Not answering calls from the United States can buy yourself time to adjust the boundaries of policy expression and response strategies.
Second, it may also be a time window for China's internal coordination. After the policy was introduced, domestic relevant departments, local agencies, and enterprises may need time to study the impact and prepare for response. China or hopes to unify internal opinions, then in a clearer and more substantial gesture to dialogue with the US. As the Ministry of Commerce said, China's rare-earth export control measures are normally based on laws and regulations, improve its own export control system, not targeting any specific country, and "export control is not prohibiting exports", there is a license for compliance purposes.
Because China chooses to handle its negotiations with the United States in a rhythmic and step-by-step manner, when the United States faces China's counter-measures, its reaction may become impatient, and it is easier to expose its internal contradictions. After China chose to pre-empt and stabilize the rhythm, the US's attitude and actions towards China have changed significantly.
On the 12th local time, Trump posted on social media: "Don't worry about China, everything will be fine. The United States wants to help China, not hurt it!" He also implicitly threatened that a full-scale trade war would cause harm to China. Compared with the previous tough stance of publicly shouting that "100% tariffs will be imposed on China," the words this time are much softer. Vance also said in an interview that he hoped China would "choose rationality" and said that if the dispute continues, the US president has more chips. This change in speech is a manifestation of the United States 'attempt to release the possibility of dialogue while maintaining pressure.
From the position and interests of the United States, there is realistic logic behind this reversal. Under the impact of market panic caused by China's rare earth export controls, the fiscal, financial and business circles of the United States generally hope to ease the situation. Although Trump is known for his "toughness", he also needs to maintain domestic stability when measures may hurt his own national economy and market sentiment. The sharp fluctuations in specific industries and stock markets will force him to reassess the cost of China policy. Trump's soft language this time is probably due to worries about the fluctuations of the financial market and the real economy, and it is a "crisis correction" gesture.
From the point of view of the negotiation strategy, Trump at the moment softened the phrase against China, which can be viewed as a "high-pressure retreat" strategy. Heins pressure on the surface, but also gives the other party a possible concession and dialogue channel. Such a strategy can find a turning point between pressure and concessions, avoiding falling into a "not this is he" situation.
The stability and clarity of China’s attitude are in sharp contrast to the dramatic shift in Trump’s phrase. Trump’s repeated inconsistency, to a certain extent, reflects the instability faced by the United States in trade, diplomacy, and economic intertwined situations. When Chinains consistency in the policy level, highlights “legal” “legitimacy” “compliance” in response, and Trump makes adjustments in the language level to address real risks.
However, Trump’s move does not mean that the issue has been eradicated. Although his words are no longer as tough, he has not completely abandoned tariff threats and export control tools. His statements are not specific enough, lack of clear institutional safeguards or policy details, which leaves uncertainty for future negotiations, policy implementation. Moreover, U.S. internal policy towards China is not unified, Congress, industry, military, think tank and other forces may continue to push the hard line.
In this case, Trump may re-strengthen his words at any time. Therefore, if China shows a tendency to make concessions in the negotiations, it may also be viewed by the opponent as a symbol of softening, and then impose greater pressure. In short, China refuses to accept the US phone call, is for strategic considerations; Trump's turn to China is the response to the market, to internal pressure, and also the adjustment of the negotiation strategy. In the future, whether China can effectively conduct dialogue and open the negotiation situation whileining a strong core, will be the key to deciding the next direction.