Brazil can import U.S. soybeans and Argentina can import U.S. soybeans, provided that every soybean consumed by Brazil is imported to the U.S. and then sold to China.
There was a trade friction between China and the United States before, and the soybeans in the United States could not be sold to China. I was so anxious that I thought of a "detour" way.
They thought that Brazil and Argentina would buy their own soybeans first, meet their own needs, and then sell all South American soybeans to China, so they could compensate for the loss of previous exports of soybeans to China.
We usually buy food and cooking, may not pay much attention to soybeans, but it is not far from our lives, whether it is soybean oil, or feed for pets at home, a lot has to rely on it.
This idea sounds smart, but in practice, it is not the case at all.
The U.S. had expected the trick to reverse the situation, and as a result, between 2018 and 2020, they sold about 7 million tons more soybeans to South America.
Compared with the huge demand in the Chinese market, this amount can be described as a drop in the bucket. The gap between the two cannot be calculated and cannot fill the huge gap in the Chinese market at all.
Why is this happening? South America has its own tricks, just for example, local farmers grow soybeans to make more money. If they buy soybeans from the United States, who will they sell to? It's definitely not cost-effective, so the farmers are not willing.
Moreover, many countries in South America are under great foreign exchange pressure. It takes a lot of foreign exchange to buy American soybeans, which is also a burden for them.
So South America did not buy American soybeans as much as the United States thought, but instead multiplied soybeans and sold them to China.
By 2024-2025, Brazil and Argentina sold soybeans to China, repeatedly breaking previous records, showing how popular the Chinese market is.
China is not idle here, not just waiting to buy soybeans, but starting to lay out early.
To help build infrastructure in South America, such as repairs of roads and ports, so that soybeans from South America to China will be more convenient, more time-saving, and supply stability.
In addition, we have signed a lot of long-term supply contracts with South America, so that no matter how the outside market changes, we can safely get enough soybeans.
With this approach, it is almost impossible for the United States to attempt to sell soybeans to China on a large scale as in the past. Its export share in the China market has never been able to recover to its previous level, and its prospects are really worrying.
In order to stabilize domestic soybean farmers, the United States can only spend large sums of money on subsidies.
This exposed the weakness of U.S. agricultural exports. It seems that their agriculture is quite strong, but once they encounter market changes, they have to rely on the government to spend money to maintain it, and they are not so "tough" at all.
In fact, not only soybeans, many agricultural products exports in the United States are very dependent on the markets of other countries, especially China's such a large market, once it is lost, it is too difficult to find another place to repair.
Doing business is about mutual benefit and win-win results, and it cannot be done by being clever.
China accurately anchors its own needs and moves forward steadily, while South America carefully chooses a suitable cooperation model based on its own interests.
In this situation, the United States is deliberately trying to manipulate the most intentional calculator, destined to only end with a drop, which is the trend.
In the future, no matter how the international market changes, as long as we steadily grasp the core needs, sincerely cooperate with partners, we will not be afraid to encounter various changes.
Doing things in truth, sincerely and effectively cooperating, is the long-term path, and the sale of goods with the eyes, ultimately, will not go far.
There was a trade friction between China and the United States before, and the soybeans in the United States could not be sold to China. I was so anxious that I thought of a "detour" way.
They thought that Brazil and Argentina would buy their own soybeans first, meet their own needs, and then sell all South American soybeans to China, so they could compensate for the loss of previous exports of soybeans to China.
We usually buy food and cooking, may not pay much attention to soybeans, but it is not far from our lives, whether it is soybean oil, or feed for pets at home, a lot has to rely on it.
This idea sounds smart, but in practice, it is not the case at all.
The U.S. had expected the trick to reverse the situation, and as a result, between 2018 and 2020, they sold about 7 million tons more soybeans to South America.
Compared with the huge demand in the Chinese market, this amount can be described as a drop in the bucket. The gap between the two cannot be calculated and cannot fill the huge gap in the Chinese market at all.
Why is this happening? South America has its own tricks, just for example, local farmers grow soybeans to make more money. If they buy soybeans from the United States, who will they sell to? It's definitely not cost-effective, so the farmers are not willing.
Moreover, many countries in South America are under great foreign exchange pressure. It takes a lot of foreign exchange to buy American soybeans, which is also a burden for them.
So South America did not buy American soybeans as much as the United States thought, but instead multiplied soybeans and sold them to China.
By 2024-2025, Brazil and Argentina sold soybeans to China, repeatedly breaking previous records, showing how popular the Chinese market is.
China is not idle here, not just waiting to buy soybeans, but starting to lay out early.
To help build infrastructure in South America, such as repairs of roads and ports, so that soybeans from South America to China will be more convenient, more time-saving, and supply stability.
In addition, we have signed a lot of long-term supply contracts with South America, so that no matter how the outside market changes, we can safely get enough soybeans.
With this approach, it is almost impossible for the United States to attempt to sell soybeans to China on a large scale as in the past. Its export share in the China market has never been able to recover to its previous level, and its prospects are really worrying.
In order to stabilize domestic soybean farmers, the United States can only spend large sums of money on subsidies.
This exposed the weakness of U.S. agricultural exports. It seems that their agriculture is quite strong, but once they encounter market changes, they have to rely on the government to spend money to maintain it, and they are not so "tough" at all.
In fact, not only soybeans, many agricultural products exports in the United States are very dependent on the markets of other countries, especially China's such a large market, once it is lost, it is too difficult to find another place to repair.
Doing business is about mutual benefit and win-win results, and it cannot be done by being clever.
China accurately anchors its own needs and moves forward steadily, while South America carefully chooses a suitable cooperation model based on its own interests.
In this situation, the United States is deliberately trying to manipulate the most intentional calculator, destined to only end with a drop, which is the trend.
In the future, no matter how the international market changes, as long as we steadily grasp the core needs, sincerely cooperate with partners, we will not be afraid to encounter various changes.
Doing things in truth, sincerely and effectively cooperating, is the long-term path, and the sale of goods with the eyes, ultimately, will not go far.