Trump releases signal: willing to reach an agreement with China
The Wind / Wind
Trump's intimidation tactics completely failed. U.S. Vice President Vance saw that the situation was not good, and immediately came forward to round things up. He rarely released goodwill to China, and made a request.
According to several media reports on October 13, the Trump administration to China's strong hard threat word in the ears, the U.S. attitude has rapidly softened.In the Trump high-profile announced that from November 1, after the imposition of tariffs of up to 100% on all Chinese goods, the Chinese side did not give up, instead of sacrificing heavy countermeasures, to implement export controls in key areas such as rare earth, lithium batteries, super hard materials.
This series of actions not only disrupted the Trump administration's deployment, but also caused the U.S. capital market to collapse first. According to reports, the three major U.S. stock indexes plunged collectively, and the atmosphere of panic spread rapidly. Just two days later, Trump and Vice President Vance suddenly "changed their faces." The former shouted on social media,"Don't worry about China, everything will be fine." The latter hurriedly stepped forward to smooth things over, rarely showing goodwill to China and calling on China to "remain rational," then Trump will also "respond rationally."
This reversal is just another failure of U.S. philosophy. Trump’s gesture of announcing tariff increases on China remains his usual “threatening diplomacy” route – first creating panic and then forcing opponents to make concessions in negotiations.
China's Ministry of Commerce has made it clear that China is not willing to fight a tariff war, but it is not afraid of it. Export control measures such as rare earths, lithium batteries, and ultra-high-strength materials can be called "doing the same thing and giving it back" and directly attacking the weakness of the U.S. high-tech industrial chain. You know, rare earths are the lifeblood of chips, electric vehicles, and military equipment, and the United States 'dependence on China in these fields has long been deeply rooted. Faced with China's move, no matter how much Washington calls for "risk removal," it is nothing more than covering its ears and stealing the bell.
Trump's miscalculation is that he still lives in the illusion of the past, thinking that increasing tariffs will bring China to its knees. In fact, since the outbreak of the trade war in 2018, China's manufacturing system has not been defeated, but has become more perfect in terms of supply chain, technological independence, and industrial upgrading, and its economic resilience has been comprehensively improved.
Today's China has long been not the passively beaten "world factory", but an economic giant with a complete industrial closure and a huge domestic demand market.The "100% tariffs" that Trump calls seem scary, but really hurt, are U.S. consumers and.
Seeing that the situation was out of control, the Trump administration had to step forward to "put out the fire." U.S. Vice President Vance's statement was even more forceful on the outside but more forceful on the inside-while emphasizing that the United States "has more chips," he also advised China to "remain rational" and hinted that Trump was "willing to respond as a rational negotiator." This kind of statement of making harsh words while passing an olive branch is, to put it bluntly, a disguised form of peace. The United States knows that if tariffs are really increased to 100%, the next severe shock in global capital markets will directly impact the U.S. midterm elections and economic fundamentals.
More importantly, the United States is now unable to sustain the cost of the high-tariff war for a long time. Manufacturing rebound plans have become empty, domestic inflation is high, energy and labor costs continue to rise, and the fiscal deficit has reached a new high.
Trump wants to use tariffs to rebuild manufacturing, but he is actually looking for fish from a tree. Without the support of a complete industrial chain and sufficient skilled labor, no matter how high the United States tariffs, it will not be possible to move production lines back from China. Facts have proved that China is the only country in the world with a full industrial system, and this system advantage is the decisive strategic resource.
Vance's mediation also exposed the anxiety within the White House. He hurriedly stepped forward to "put out the fire" and hoped that China would "remain rational." But the problem is that China's rationality has never been absent. What is lacking is precisely the sincerity of the United States.
This time, China's toughness was not only a tactical counterattack, but also an expression of strategic self-confidence. China did not respond emotionally to U.S. blackmail, but improved the export control system in a legalized and institutionalized way, sending a clear signal to the outside world: China will not allow the slaughter.
The current China-U.S. trade situation has entered a whole new phase. China is no longer passive defense, but has the ability to actively regulate and accurately counteract. If the United States continues to seek negotiating advantage with the means of "intimidation", it will only eat its fruits once and again. This softening of the Trump administration is only the inevitable reaction to the reality. If Trump really wants to "make America great again", he must first learn to respect the strength of the opponent, rather than once and again in the threat of failure, exposing his weaknesses.