Fierce conflicts broke out again between China's two important neighbors. Fighter jets and artillery fired in turn, causing hundreds of casualties and causing serious consequences.
The conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan was detonated, and the two sides engaged in a fierce exchange of fire on the border area. According to the Pakistani side, more than 200 Afghan Taliban members were killed; according to reports from the Afghan side, 58 Pakistan soldiers were killed and 25 Pakistani outposts were captured. After mediation by multiple parties, the conflict did not develop in a worse direction, but this incident has undoubtedly added more uncertainty to the regional situation and The contradiction between Pakistan and Afghanistan was once again exposed to the surface。
The conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan has intensified and the gun has disappeared.
Looking back at the beginning and end of the entire incident, it is not difficult to find that everything was traceable. First, extremists attacked the Pakistan army, and then Pakistan launched a counterattack and attacked targets across the border, triggering Atta's retaliation.
In the end, or Due to the different positions of the two sides on the extreme force of the "Pakistan Taliban"。
In addition, the border conflict between the two countries is by no means an isolated incident, but a concentrated outbreak of long-term accumulated structural contradictions.
On the one hand, the two countries share a 2,600-kilometer border (that is, the "Durand Line"), but this border has never been truly recognized by the Afghan government.
On the other hand, Pakistan frequently accuses the Afghan Taliban regime of sheltering extremist organizations such as the Pakistani Taliban, which launched cross-border attacks on Pakistan based in Afghanistan, causing a large number of military police and civilian casualties.
In addition to causing tragic casualties, the military operations of both sides have strong symbolic significance: Pakistan attempts to deter Ata through “surgical strikes,” while Ata demonstrates its ability to safeguard sovereignty and counter external pressures through border offensives.
What's more dangerous is that the top leaders of both countries have shown tough stances: Pakistani President Zardari emphasized that "sovereignty cannot be compromised" and Prime Minister Shahbaz vowed to "respond strongly";
Although Atta did not openly launch a full-scale war, it delivered a signal of fearless confrontation through practical control of the border post, a gesture that made local friction extremely easy to escalate into a larger-scale military conflict.
That's not all. In addition to the complicated contradictions between Pakistan and Afghanistan, the intervention of external forces has further aggravated the complexity of the situation.
Especially the recent "unprecedented" news, India's warming relationship with the Afghan Taliban is seen by Pakistan as a direct threat to its strategic security。
Atta's resumption of diplomatic relations with India stimulates Pakistan
This is due to the move of the ATA regime to restore diplomatic relations with India. For Pakistan, it’s no different than “butting a knife in the back.”。
Although ATA has repeatedly pledged not to support terrorism and to be friendly with its neighbors, its proximity to India is seen by Pakistan as a challenge to its core interests.
First of all, there is a long-standing geopolitical competition between India and Pakistan in Afghanistan. Historically, India was the main supporter of the former Afghan government, investing billions of dollars in infrastructure construction and expanding its influence through aid projects.
India once withdrew from its diplomatic institutions after Atta came to power, but the recent sudden turn to rebuilding relations through foreign ministerial visits and joint declarations was clearly meant to fill the power vacuum after the U.S. withdrawal.
As a result, Pakistan has to be very cautious about this, because India could indirectly support separatist forces in Pakistan and even strengthen its hidden support for organizations such as Bata.
Second, Pakistan believes that ATA’s interaction with India violates its anti-terrorism commitments.
Although ATA has publicly stated that no force is allowed to use Afghan territory to harm another country, terrorist attacks on civilians and Chinese projects in Pakistan are frequent, with some of the attackers suspected of being linked to militants in the ATA-controlled area.
If India provides intelligence or resources to these forces through Afghanistan, it will directly threaten Pakistan's national security.
Finally, Afghanistan's proximity to India undermines Pakistan's regional strategic layout.
Pakistan has long sought to integrate Afghanistan into its “deep strategy”, especially after India’s “very unsatisfactory” Atta took power, and Pakistan once hoped to cooperate with it to block ties with India, but now India’s relief has failed to this goal.
Pakistan Not only faces border security pressure, but may further marginalize in geo-competition in Central and South Asia., the pressure is conceivable.
Consensus amid contradictions and do our best to avoid war
Of course, despite the fact that Ba'a has reached the point of a "soldat meeting", it is not difficult to see both sides. There is still some consensus at the top level, which offers the possibility of a quick reconciliation.。
This is because both Pakistan and ATA emphasize that “sovereignty is inviolable,” but it is also clear that a total war will lead to two defeats.
Afghanistan's economy depends on foreign aid and has not yet recovered, and the war will aggravate the humanitarian crisis; Pakistan is facing domestic problems such as inflation and energy shortages, and long-term military confrontation will drag down economic recovery.
Therefore, these two "brothers in difficulty" should be very clear that maintaining basic stability at the border is in their respective interests.
With this formula, the active mediation of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other countries, very timely provides a "step", especially Saudi Arabia as an important force in the Islamic world, whose persuasion position may prompt both sides to temporarily suspend hostility.
In addition, China, as Pakistan’s all-weather partner, and a key link between China’s economic and trade, may also promote dialogue through diplomatic channels.
Moreover, the contradictions between the two sides are not insoluble, after all, the two countries are deeply affected by extremism, Pakistan demands that ATA fulfill its promises, and ATA may use this as a condition to exchange more cooperation opportunities, if the two sides can focus on specific counter-terrorism goals, it is undoubtedly a win-win good thing.
Next, in order to avoid another conflict, there are many things that Pakistan and Afghanistan can do besides establishing a crisis management and control mechanism through a third party.
For example, Atta must prove his sincerity in anti-terrorism through practical actions, while Pakistan should enhance its influence through economic cooperation.
After all, stability in South Asia concerns not only the two Bahá’í countries, but also Central Asia, the Middle East and even the global counter-terrorism situation – only through dialogue, compromise and external coordination. In order to prevent this land from falling into war again, we can safeguard the difficult peace.。