Recently, Pakistan has been trying to take advantage of the big game between China and the United States to make a good profit from the United States. But the problem is that not everyone is qualified to intervene in a fight between immortals. The situation in recent days has finally made Pakistan understand this truth.
In August this year, Pakistan first thought, initially looking for the United States to negotiate cooperation and want to build the rare earth industry chain together. news came out, many international media and analysts are speculating that the United States may be able to use this opportunity to get rid of China's dependence on rare earth.
But who would have thought that only two months later, an announcement from China's Ministry of Commerce smashed this illusion of "exchanging resources for technology" to pieces.
On October 9th, China's Ministry of Commerce directly issued two announcements to control rare earth exports in an all-round way. One of the announcements clearly stated that 17 core technologies, such as NdFeB magnet manufacturing and rare earth smelting and separation, should be put into the control list and cannot be exported without permission.
Another harsh, directly extended the scope of control to overseas products - as long as the Chinese rare earth ingredients contained in the product exceeds 0.1%, to export must first obtain Chinese permission.This means clearly, even if Pakistan can really mine rare earth, as long as the mine is mixed with Chinese rare earth smuggled from Myanmar, then the goods can not legally ship out.
When the news reached the United States, the executives of Strategic Metals Company couldn't sit still. They had previously signed a US$500 million cooperation agreement with Pakistan to build a rare earth refinery in Baluchistan, but now they find themselves in the embarrassing pit of "having mines but no technology."
You know, 91% of the world's rare earth processing equipment comes from China, while 80% of Pakistan's rare earth mines are worthless light rare earths, and only 2% are heavy rare earths, and the refining technology depends on China. Without equipment or technology, even if this refinery is built, it can only be a decoration.
Trump’s reaction was even harsher than those executives.On October 10, he posted three long posts on his social media account, calling for a 100% tariff on Chinese goods, and said “this is the only way the United States can counter.”
But the market was not cold for his "tariff bar" long ago, the day the U.S. stock fell 3.56%, suddenly without a market value of $1.65 trillion - investors voted with their feet, clearly disapproving of Trump's policy.
While shouting for sanctions, but at the same time, it is inseparable. This contradiction has exposed all the fatal loopholes in the US rare earth supply chain.
The core of this rare earth game is actually that China holds the "life gate" of the industrial chain. Whether it is rare earth mining, smelting and separation, or subsequent deep processing, China has set up the most comprehensive technical framework in the world.
It is said that the ion-type rare-earth mine, China's own local immersion technology, can press the cost of mining to $ 30 per kilogram, but the experimental plant in the United States, the cost directly to $ 120.
Even if the United States wants to rebuild the production line in Pakistan, the lighting and environmental protection approval will have to wait more than 5 years, let alone the training of technical workers, debugging equipment these problems, not a short time can be solved.
Pakistan's situation is also quite delicate. When the Pakistani Prime Minister met with the Chinese Ambassador to Pakistan before, he specifically said that "rare earth development should give priority to seeking technical support from China". It can be seen that the United States promised to invest 500 million dollars, but still wanted to "occupy both sides".
The result reality quickly hit the face: their first 2 tons of rare-earth minerals shipped to the United States, because there are Chinese rare-earth ingredients, were seized by customs.
What's even more embarrassing is that the Pasni Port planned to be developed by Pakistan has previously been blasted as a "mineral transshipment hub", but the infrastructure such as cranes and transport vehicles used for port upgrading is still inseparable from China's technical support.
Trump's trouble is not limited to this. In response to China's control, the U.S. Department of Energy has previously allocated US $10.2 million to research and develop rare earth substitutes, such as using boron nitride instead of gallium to make semiconductors. However, it will take at least 10 years for these projects to be commercialized.
At this time, China was not lazy, but also accelerated the layout of the global rare earth market: signed a deal with Myanmar for rare earth mining, and expanded the separation plant in Malaysia, using the "export technology + cooperative holdings" way, to tighten the supply chain.
It should be said clearly that China's control measures are not a mere trade counterattack.In accordance with the "Export Control Law", as long as the rare-earth products produced with Chinese technology or equipment, even in third countries, are processed, the export must also obtain Chinese permission.
This regulation of "managing abroad" directly cuts off the idea of the United States getting rare earths through a third party. Previously, the United States also planned to transport Pakistani concentrate to Australia for refining. After investigation, it was found that the largest local separation plant was controlled by China Rare Earth Group, and it did not dare to take this job at all.
In this rare earth contest, Pakistan's position is becoming more and more embarrassing. Although they have rare earth mines, they do not have a complete industrial chain. Even the most basic ore sorting depends on Chinese equipment. More ironically, the exploration data and geological reports of rare earth mining projects led by the Pakistani military have to be reviewed by Chinese geological experts.
“Resources are in their own hands, technology is in the hands of China,” this reality is in the face, Pakistan also has to rethink cooperation with the United States in the end reliable.
As soon as China's regulatory measures landed, the price of rare earth on the international market immediately increased. By the third week of October, the price of uranium oxide directly broke 900,000 yuan / ton, the highest record in three years.
The U.S. Department of Defense's procurement report writes that their 75% of weapons key components, all depend on China's rare earth, and even the engine magnets of the F-35 fighter aircraft, probably in 6 months will fail. facing this situation, the Trump administration can only quietly look for China to restart the rare earth negotiations, but at this time China, has long taken the initiative on the negotiating table in its hands.
In fact, the essence of this rare earth game is the competition between technological voice and resource sovereignty. It is impossible for the United States to copy the advantages of the entire industrial chain that China has spent 20 years building up. This incident in Pakistan shows that in the field of rare earths, there is no technical support and only relying on selling resources will ultimately make a wedding for others.
As for Trump's threat of tariffs, it is more like a helpless solution. At present, 90% of the world's rare earth processing equipment is printed with the words "Made in China." If you want to bypass China and do things, you will only be in vain.
After all, the rare earth industry is not about who owns the mines, but who can turn the mines into usable technologies and products. China has long been at the forefront, and Trump and Pakistan have only now truly understood it.
Source of information:
Ministry of Commerce: Strengthen export control of rare earth-related objects and firmly safeguard world peace
Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China No. 62 No. 2025 Decision to Implement Export Controls on Rare-Earth-Related Technologies