On October 10, Trump once again pushed the topic of Sino-US trade to the forefront of public opinion.
This time, he did not “suggest”, but directly “fire”: a 100% tariff on all Chinese goods, and said it was “to retaliate against China’s restrictions on rare earth exports.”
According to the news, the Western media reacted sharply, capital markets once shook, and a journalist from Singapore's "Strait Times" in China chose to go to the streets of Beijing to listen to what the Chinese people say.
The reporter stopped the next gentleman who was training in the morning and asked him what he thought of Trump’s new move. The old man laughed and said, “79 years, I’m still thinking of one out.”
This slightly sarcastic sentence quickly appeared in the title column of foreign media and became the most down-to-earth footnote in this "tariff storm." A big truth tells the mentality of many China when they view this trade turmoil at the moment: no panic, no chaos, and no fuss.
I can be calm because China has confidence
In recent years, there has been more than one round of tug-of-war on trade between China and the United States.
From the earliest "301 investigation" to the later "tariff increase" and now to the "100% capping", the attitude of the United States towards China can be said to be a rising "tariff performance".
But unlike in 2018, the reaction of Chinese society to similar things is clearly cooler.
This calm, not pretending, not even troublesome, but real underground.
On the one hand, China's current foreign trade structure has undergone great changes and is no longer highly dependent on a single market as in the past.
The share of U.S. exports declined significantly, and emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, Africa, Latin America gradually went to the forefront.
On the other hand, Made in China is no longer a "low-price running volume" set.
Many companies have long begun to transform and upgrade, moving towards high-end manufacturing and independent brands. From mobile phones to electric vehicles, from photovoltaics to artificial intelligence, many industries in China have begun to gain a place in the world.
No matter how much the United States raises taxes, it is difficult to completely shake the foundation of these enterprises. What's more, the business of many Chinese companies in the North American market is not heavy, and the affected areas are actually limited.
The growth of the domestic demand market is also a major support, today, the wallet of the Chinese people is increasingly drumming, and the consumption capacity is rising.
An economic model driven by internal circulation is no longer an idea, but a reality.
China is not so much "responding to external shocks" as it is "calculating its own calculations." This also explains why many people responded to Trump's "100-tax cap" as being "accustomed to it."
No one has seen emotional tariffs anymore.
This time Trump suddenly announced a tax increase, saying it was "countering China's rare earth restrictions," but it is hard not to think of his consistent "business-like political manipulation."
When he was in power in the past, Trump turned trade policy into an election tool many times. It became his consistent style to talk more, do more urgently and become faster.
The problem is that this policy rhythm of “thinking where to do it” is not good news for local American.
As can be seen from the market reaction, many retail giants and manufacturing companies in the United States have expressed concerns about the new round of tariffs. Especially in the consumption season near the end of the year, rising prices and tight supply chains directly affect the shopping carts of ordinary American consumers.
Trump still regards "being tough on China" as a political bargaining chip, but this time, the effect may not be as "immediate" as he imagined.
Domestic support for tariff policy in the United States is not high, especially when inflation has not yet been completely alleviated. This kind of "adding fuel to the fire" may bring more dissatisfaction to voters.
From a Chinese perspective, this policy is too volatile to be seen as a predictable economic strategy.
Today to raise taxes, may be to negotiate again tomorrow, may suddenly announce a "delay" the next day. partners don't know how to cooperate, which will directly lower the confidence of the outside world in the stability of U.S. policy.
Moreover, in the context of an increasingly rules-oriented, transparent and sustainable international trading system, this "emotional tariff" seems incompatible.
It is neither conducive to solving problems nor conducive to establishing long-term cooperation.
For Chinese enterprises, the only thing they can do in the face of such an opponent is to steadfastly and effectively take their own path.
Decision-making is worrying
Trump is 79 years old this year, which has become the focus of ridicule by many netizens in China. "You are still so impulsive when you are old" "Is your mood unstable recently" "The old child has lost his temper"...
These comments, while joking, also reveal a real concern: Can a politician of eighty years still maintain reason and stability?
Chinese traditional culture says, "Do whatever you want at seventy", but there is another saying behind this old saying, "Don't overstep the rules". It means that when you are older, you can do whatever you want, but you have to be measured.
From this perspective, Trump's "100% tariff theory" this time makes people worry whether he is "only from his heart, regardless of the moment".
What's more interesting is that the respect for the elderly in Chinese society is often based on "stability and wisdom", rather than "I can be willful when I get older".
This also gives people a sense of "discord" about Trump's political style. Shouldn't you be more calm? Why do you still look like a "traffic star" who is about to pop up on talent shows at any time?
Of course, age is just an appearance. What really makes people anxious is the logic behind decision-making.
If a country’s major economic policies are driven by momentary emotions, then its partners will be increasingly alert.This uncertainty will spread to the global markets and also affect the confidence of the international community.
The reaction of the China people this time is also a reflection of this "cognitive change."
Everyone is not angry with Trump's approach, but more with an attitude of "seeing through but not telling through": knowing that he is "making a show", but also knowing what he should do and not dancing along.
China's economy's ability to withstand pressure has been qualitatively improved
Since 2018, the term trade war has repeatedly appeared in Chinese people’s lives.
At the beginning, many people were really somewhat nervous, worried about affecting exports, affecting the economy, affecting life.But now, many people have seen it as a "cyclical event" and even thought that it was only a "route" before the U.S. election.
This reflects, in fact, the maturity of the overall perception of Chinese society. from "fear" to "see", and then to "should", Chinese enterprises, media, and the public have gradually formed their own judgment in this repeated trade dispute.
Know what is “true action”, what is “false gesture”; which is to be addressed seriously, which is to be treated coldly.
More importantly, this maturity is not blind "optimism", but based on the judgment of the country's overall ability to withstand pressure.
Faced with external pressure, China has no panic, but continuously promotes industrial upgrading, expands domestic demand, and improves the level of scientific and technological autonomy.
Now, in the face of Trump's new round of tax increase, the mainstream sentiment of Chinese society is not to fight back fiercely, nor to compromise, but to continue to do one's own thing more confidently and orderly.
This "careful" response also shows that China is no longer the passive player in the face of international risks.
The change of external attitude is a reflection of the change of national strength.
Tax increases no longer panic, indicating that the Chinese economy's resistance to pressure capacity has been improved qualitatively. and this change, not by shouting out, is replaced by real money, silver, and real efforts.
Trump, 79, once again stood on the trade stage and waved the "tariff stick".
But this time, China no longer panicked or danced to the rhythm. The sentence "I still want to do it once" expresses the thoughts of many people and is also a calm response.
Trade wars have never been just a digital game, but a game of national strategic capabilities.
Crying loudly is not equal to winning, coming in a hurry is not equal to standing firmly.In this fight without smoke, the one who can really laugh to the end, must be the opponent who can withstand the pressure, keep the rhythm, go far.
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