«--[· Preface ·]--»
China has not yet eagerly bought U.S. soybeans, and Trump has repeated the same thing, and it has gone awkward.According to Observer Network reports, on October 10 local time, Trump in a news interview with reporters at the White House said that he was considering export controls on Boeing parts, and this is a response to China's control of rare earth.
“(Trump has rushed to Boeing’s countercard)”
Just a day after China's new rules for rare-earth control landed, Trump hurriedly uncovered the so-called "contra-card". On October 10, local time, the former US president made it clear in an interview with reporters at the White House that he was considering imposing export controls on Boeing parts. He bluntly said that this move is a direct response to China's control of rare earths.
Trump’s backdrop seems to be good enough.He believes that the Chinese civil aviation market cannot be separated from Boeing, and thinks that the card can steadily “take up” the opponent.
China currently has more than 1,800 Boeing aircraft in operation, these aircraft maintenance maintenance can not be separated from the original factory parts supply.
But Trump obviously did not see the situation clearly.The new rare earth rules introduced by China on October 9 are by no means temporary, which covers more than 0.1% of China's heavy rare earth components, and precisely hit the "soft ribs" of high-end U.S. manufacture.
China controls 90% of the world's rare earth separation and processing capacity, and rare earths are the key materials for Boeing's avionics system and engine. Trump wants to use Boeing parts to exert pressure, essentially touching the Chinese longboard with his own short board.
«--[· China has paved an "alternative road" early]--»
The dependence of China's civil aviation market on Boeing has already experienced a structural decline. Behind this is a strategic layout that has lasted for many years. Once upon a time, China accounted for 25% of Boeing's global orders and was one of its most important growth engines. But the latest data shows that this proportion has plunged to 5%, a full four-fifths reduction.
Behind this data change is the strong rise of domestic large aircraft. As of May 2025, the commercial operation of the C919 has reached its second anniversary. A total of 18 C919s from Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines have been put into routes, flying safely for more than 36,000 hours and transporting more than 2.05 million passengers.
More importantly, the three major airlines will receive 28 new C919s in 2025, and the route network is accelerating to cover domestic core cities and cross-border markets.
Boeing planned to deliver 50 aircraft to China by 2025, but China Airways accounted for only 10% of its accumulation orders.This means that even if it loses Chinese orders, Boeing can also relentlessly maintain by transferring to other countries, but China's alternative options are continuing to expand.
Before the Soya Tragedy.
Trump's operation simply left the painful lesson of American soybeans behind. Before China could relax and resume U.S. soybean purchases, he repeated the same mistake and offered a big stick of sanctions. The situation of U.S. soybeans has long given warning signals.
In 2016, the market share of American soybeans in China could still reach 40%. But after several rounds of trade friction, that figure has fallen to 20% in 2024. Brazil took the opportunity to fill the gap and exported 74.65 million tons of soybeans to China in 2024, accounting for more than 70%. What worries American farmers even more is that the autumn harvest in 2025 is just around the corner, and China has not placed an order for American soybeans so far, while the purchase volume in the same period last year reached 13 million tons.
Tim Maxwell, a bean farmer in Iowa, said that this year's output is good but the market is cold and the pressure is about to overwhelm farmers.
Chicago Agricultural Resources predicts that if there are no orders from China before mid-November, the loss of U.S. soybean sales to China will reach 14 million to 16 million tons. Bankruptcy filings for small businesses in the agricultural sector have risen to a five-year high, and farmers in the Midwest who once supported Trump have long complained.
“William is willing to talk.”
At the same time as Trump spoke, US Vice President Vance's statement told the truth. In an interview earlier, he clearly admitted that 54% of tariffs on China were "already very high" and no additional taxes would be raised. Then he changed the subject, suggesting that if China responded "rationally", the US was willing to return to the negotiating table.
Vance's words hide the real situation of the United States. Boeing's financial data has already exposed its weaknesses. In the second quarter of 2025, its revenue was 22.749 billion US dollars, but its net profit attributable to the parent was a loss of 611 million US dollars, which has been in a state of loss for five consecutive quarters.
The loss of the China market will undoubtedly make Boeing's situation worse. What's even worse is that the United States relies on China's rare earths in military, automobile and other fields. China's control measures have put pressure on related industries.
In fact, the US's calculations have long been seen through by China. Vance's so-called "rational negotiations" are essentially trying to get China to compromise, but avoiding the irrationality of its own sanctions. Trump thought that Boeing could control China, but did not realize that China's strategic determination far exceeded expectations.
The weight of rare earth brands is far more important than the impact of Boeing parts; and China's alternative layout has long made the "threat of supply cut-off" lose its lethality.
“ ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ”
From soybeans to Boeing, Trump seems to be repeating the same mistakes all the time, overestimating his own coding, underestimating Chinese preparations, and eventually letting American companies only pay.
Vance's call for negotiations is not so much a "rational proposal" as a helpless move by the United States that lacks confidence. China has never refused equal dialogue, but in the face of core interests, it will never compromise due to short-term pressure.