Recently, China introduced new regulations, upgrading export controls for rare earth and ultra-hard materials. However, the move by China provoked Trump's sensitive nerves. On October 10, local time, Trump posted on social media that he would impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods from November 1 on the basis of existing tariffs, raising the total tariff rate to 130%. Not only that, Trump also threatened, "If China takes counter-measures, then the tariffs will be raised in advance."

You know, this year's APEC summit will be held in South Korea from October 31st to November 1st. Trump has been released many times and will meet with China during the APEC summit. In this context, Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on China, which means that there are only 20 days left for China to consider it. This is also a means for the US to force China to cancel rare earth export controls. However, just two days later, Trump's tone changed.

On October 12 local time, Trump posted another post on social platforms, trying to cool down the tense Sino-US relations. He first said,"Everything will be fine. China is just in a bad mood." Later, Trump changed the subject and said,"He does not want China to fall into economic recession. The United States wants to help China, not hurt China."

It is not difficult to see, in Trump's view, that China's rule of law is because of the so-called "bad mood". but is it true? obviously not. Since recently, the US has frequently launched provocations against China. On September 12, the US has put 23 Chinese high-tech enterprises on the restriction list, including semiconductors and integrated circuits are the disaster zone; on September 29, the US has also issued export control penetration rules. According to the regulation, as long as enterprises listed in the US entity list, the subsidiaries holding more than 50% will be automatically added equivalent sanctions. And on October 8, which is the last day of the National Day holiday, the Trump administration also included 19 Chinese enterprises on the restriction list.

It can be seen that China issued a series of new regulations from October 9 to 10 in order to counter the unreasonable sanctions imposed by the United States. Trump certainly knows this, but he did not say anything, lightly blaming China, and in turn declared that he "wants to help China." I have to say that Trump has mastered the routine of threatening first and then appeasing. On the same day Trump made his statement, US Vice President Vance also spoke out.

On October 12th, local time, Vance first said, "The development of Sino-US trade depends to a large extent on China." He called on China to "choose a rational path" and stressed that the United States will also be a rational negotiator. Vance said, "The United States has a lot of bargaining chips, but Trump doesn't want to use them." He believes that in the next few weeks, China will tell the United States whether it wants to start a trade war or be rational.

Some analysts pointed out that the "next few weeks" mentioned by Vance obviously refers to the APEC summit. If China and the United States hold talks at that time, there will be a clear answer to whether it is war or peace between the two sides. As for "the United States has a lot of chips in its hands" in Vance's mouth, the subtext is that in this tariff war, the United States still maintains an advantage over China. However, judging from Trump's threat to impose a 100% tariff on China, the reality is obviously contrary to what Vance said.

Then, why did Trump and Vance express their views on China in one day one after another, and the tone was far less tough than before? In the final analysis, in this struggle, the United States showed its timidity first. On the 12th local time, U.S. Trade Representative Greer said that after China expanded rare earth export controls, the U.S. had tried to communicate with China by telephone, but it was delayed by China. Greer also complained that China did not inform the United States in advance before announcing the new rare earth regulations.

There are analysts who believe that Trump, although in the beginning the attitude is tough, but after the Chinese side delayed the call, the tone has changed significantly. Not only that, in response to the threat of Trump to raise taxes, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded on December 12, for the tariff war, the Chinese side is not willing to fight, but also not afraid to fight. In simple terms, if Trump wants a big trade war, the Chinese side will be accompanied by the end. In this case, Trump is softened to China, is to give the next negotiations space, after all, he is also clear about the strength of the new regulations.