The 2025 Nobel Prize in Economics will be announced at 17:45 p.m. on October 13 Beijing time.
Judging from the potential winners, many scholars in the field of economics told The Paper that Andrei Shleifer, a scholar in corporate governance, is one of the popular winners this year.
Some scholars also believe that the Nobel Prize in Economics tends to be awarded to fields that are more related to the international situation. In recent years, inflation in the United States has attracted global attention. Therefore, scholars related to inflation research may also win this year's Nobel Prize in Economics.
In addition, macro-finance, empirical industry research, etc. are also the popular direction of the award.
Judging from the age of the award, Baute, associate professor at the Department of Economics at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, told The Paper that in recent years, the winners of the Nobel Prize in Economics have shown a trend of "polarization." Among the winners are Young scholars such as Esther Duflo (46 years old at the time of the award), as well as older scholars such as Robert B.Wilson (83 years old at the time of the award). This year's Nobel Prize in Economics may be awarded to younger scholars.
The Nobel Prize in Economics was first awarded in 1968, when the Swedish central bank (Sveriges Riksbank) established the Nobel Prize in honour of Alfred Nobel, the founder of the Nobel Prize.
Here are the 2025 Nobel Prize winners for economics predicted by experts:
The macro-financial field
Wang Yongchin, a professor at the University of Phuket’s School of Economics, believes that this year’s Nobel Prize in Economics is likely to be awarded.John Geanakoplos, professor of economics at Yale University, Japanese economist Nobuhiro Kiyotaki and economic theorist John Moorein recognition of their workLeverage Cycle and Credit CycleAspects of research.
Public information shows that Genacapoulos began to develop the mortgage equilibrium and leverage cycle theory in 1996. This theory has strong explanatory power on the financial cycle and economic cycle, and can better explain how the 2008 financial crisis occurred. Shinhiro Kiyotaki and Moore proposed a credit cycle model in 1996, which also revealed the impact of fluctuations in the value of mortgage assets on the economic cycle (leverage is exogenous).
"Their work has strong explanatory power for the Great Depression of 1929-1933, the global financial crisis of 2008-2012, and the long-term economic recession after Japan's 1990 real estate bubble." Wang Yongqin said that their research has triggered a lot of follow-up theoretical and empirical research, which is largely the basis of macrofinance that emerged after the 2008 financial crisis. The research by professors Amir Sufi and Atif Mian of the University of Chicago on the important role of American household debt in the 2008 financial crisis and the subsequent "Great Recession" is an empirical test of the success of leverage cycle theory, and Sufi won the Black Prize (awarded to the best financial scientist under the age of 40). Therefore, Ginakapoulos, Nobuhiro Kiyotaki and Moore may win this year's Nobel Prize in Economics for their research on leverage and credit cycles.
The macroeconomic field
Butter believes that this year’s Nobel Prize in Economics will be awarded.Professors Emi Namamura and Jón Steinsson, Department of Economics at the University of California, Berkeley;In recognition of it.inflationContribution to research. Baute explained that the Nobel Prize in Economics tends to be awarded in fields more related to the international situation. In recent years, inflation in the United States has attracted global attention, which has increased the probability of Kimi Nakamura winning the award.
Political EconomicsIn terms of aspect, Baute believes that,Tim Besley, a professor at the London School of Economics and Political Science, and his main collaborators Torsten Persson and Guido TabelliniIs a favorite to win the prize. Different from last year's Nobel Prize winner in economics and a well-known scholar in the field of political economy, Asimoglu's research direction is biased towards economic history, their research pays more attention to the promotion of economic growth by national capacity building, has a more positive view on the role of the government's active actions in economic development, and has more enlightenment and reflection on the recent difficulties and problems in western countries, such as the rise of populism, the plight of the welfare state, extremism and political violence.
microeconomic field
King Yongcheng thinks,Pol Antràs and Marc J. Melitz, professors of economics at Harvard University, and Samuel S., professor of economics at Yale University. Kortum）The Nobel Prize may be awarded.The research of the three scholars focuses onMicro-enterprise dimension in international tradeWang Yongchin introduced that the research of Atlas can be seen as an extension of the 2016 Nobel Prize-winning economist Oliver Hart’s research on the enterprise level of international trade.
The empirical industry organization is also one of the award-winning directions. Wang Yongchin introduced, in 1995,Yale University economics professors Steven Berry and James Levinsohn, and Harvard University economics professor Ariél PakesCo-published the article "Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium", in which he proposedDemand Estimation Model, provides a theoretical model framework for subsequent empirical industrial organization research. They have done a lot of fundamental work in the empirical estimation of theoretical models of industrial organizations.
Wang Yongqin believes that if Berry, Levinson and Parks win the award, the main consideration should be their contributions in two aspects: on the one hand, they put forward general and structural methods; on the other hand, these methods are more mature in the field of industrial organization and used to analyze various public policies. The structural method puts forward a theoretical model, which combines data and theory more closely, and can predict and estimate problems that have not occurred and have no real data.
Finance and economy
In the area of financial economyCorporate governanceIt is also one of the popular award-winning directions. Wang Yongqin believes that his popular winners areAndrei Shleifer and Robert W. Vishny。In 1998, the "Law and Finance" document created by Shriver, Vishny and other scholars believed that differences in different legal systems would lead to differences in corporate governance such as equity structure and dividend policies in different countries, promoting law and finance research, this series of studies has had a great impact on the World Bank's policies. They have also done outstanding work in behavioral finance.
Bauter also believes that Shriver is one of the strong contenders for this year's Nobel Prize in Economics. In addition, famous financial economist Mike. Michael Jensen was also supposed to be one of the favorites to win the award, but he passed away in 2024. Among the living economists, Professor of Economics at Colombia UniversityPatrick BoltonMaybe you can share this year's Nobel Prize in Economics with Shriver.
"Soaring executive compensation is one of the important reasons for the expansion of income inequality. At the same time, for a long time, the Nobel Prize in Economics has neglected research on corporate governance, which is unfair to scholars in relevant fields. In order to make up for this shortcoming, this year's Nobel Prize in Economics may be awarded to scholars in corporate governance." Bauter explained why Shriver and Bolton might win the prize.