In the second half of 2025, Philippine President Marcos was plunged into a multi-line power crisis. External economic stagnation and unrelated dependence on the United States, internal election defeat and corruption scandals – all of which are accelerating the erosion of his political foundation.
The matter initially stems from a government-led infrastructure plan to cope with floods caused by the annual rainy season. However, after the advancement of projects in many provinces was blocked, the media and the opposition began to trace the flow of project funds, which immediately sparked nationwide attention. The Philippine Congress immediately launched a hearing process, and the names of a series of heavyweight politicians surfaced-core figures in the Congress, including the Senate President and the Speaker of the House of Representatives, resigned one after another, triggering a shock in the "collapse" of the political arena.
In the face of the question, Marcos publicly announced the establishment of an “independent commission of inquiry” to try to cut responsibility from the presidential palace. But this move failed to calm the public anger. The independence of the “self-examination mechanism” was widely questioned, protests and petitions broke out across the country, and the media continued to question the president’s role in the project approval.
The spark of this political storm is far more simple than engineering scandals; it is breaking a bigger crack: a deep political network woven by money, family relationships, and power.
Blue Belt Hearing and Judicial Evidence
In late September, during a public hearing at the Blue Belt Committee of the Philippine Senate, former Marine Corps officer Guterres attended a testimony, saying he had personally delivered 46 suitcases with 48 million pesos in cash each to former Congressman Martin Romualds and former Congressman Saldi Ko, totaling more than $36 million.
Gutsa claimed to be a "middleman" and was specifically responsible for cash transportation. If this accusation is true, not only is the amount staggering, but also means that the source, flow and use of funds are interlocking, forming a systematic corruption chain. More importantly, Romualdez is the cousin of President Marcos, has long served as the core of his cronies, and is widely regarded by the outside world as the successor of the 2028 presidential election.
As soon as the case was uncovered in Congress, the philippines quickly focused on whether there was evidence behind the “baggage box” case. Such direct testimony is not a criterion of conviction in the Philippine judicial system, but the Blue Belt Committee has played a key role in promoting impeachment and prosecution in the past – its right to investigate does not force enforcement, but can provide a basis for prosecution and surveillance.
The Ministry of Justice immediately stated that it would evaluate the relevant testimony and whether to formally open an investigation is still under review. But the political consequences have already taken a step forward: public opinion is in uproar and the opposition calls for the launch of a presidential accountability mechanism. To a certain extent, these 46 suitcases are already outside of legal principles and constitute a "real hammer in a symbolic sense."
Collective downfall of cronies
The remainder of the scandal has not yet settled, and Marcos has personally dismissed Romualdes as the chairman of the parliament. This move is seen as a move of "abandoning the car guard" with the intention to quickly cut the confidence in the self-defense of the president's authority. But from the perspective of the political evolution, this move has failed to stop the blood, but has led to two consequences: one is to trigger a distraction within the ruling party, and the other is to completely destroy the original "succession layout".
During the past two years, Marcos has consolidated his power through the “Relationship Governance” – handing key parliamentary positions over to family members, making executive orders circulate rapidly in the legislative system. Romualdes, as a parliamentary member and family contact person, is the key link in the system. His failure has not only interrupted the succession program, but also made the outside world see the vulnerability of Marcos’s “home-to-home” system for the first time.
More seriously, there have been several reports of cash flow tracking in the Philippines and abroad related to the case. For example, a U.S. court in Delaware referred to “Filipine politicians involving unknown funds abroad” when dealing with a multinational money laundering case, while the recipients are having business contacts with the Romualdes family.
At this point, the "suitcase case" is no longer a single corruption issue, but a comprehensive question of Marcos 'political operation. The trinity model of family network, administrative dispatch, and legislative connectivity he relies on is being torn apart one by "cash testimony."
Sarah and Duterte’s “Courtesy and Clearance”
As the Marcos Line gradually disintegrated, another political group was quickly filling the vacuum: Vice President Sarah Duterte, who returned strongly with the "old Duterte family".
Sarah expressed her full confidence in the testimony of the key witnesses at the hearing, and suggested that the president was not guilty of the corruption case. She then visited local provinces, mobilized military police and church groups, launched a “institutional cleansing campaign” and politically completed a complete break with the president.
This counteroffensive is not only a struggle for power between the vice president and the president, but also the old Duterte family's settlement of the "old scores of the 2023 conflict" of the Marcos family. During her tenure as Minister of Education, Sarah publicly protested because of the reduction of budget power, and was forced to resign. Duterte himself has repeatedly publicly reprimanded Marcos for "breaking promise". Now that Feng Shui is rotating, Du's faction is instigating Congress to defect while encouraging the military to express its position. Obviously, impeachment has been taken as one of the options.
It is worth noting that Sarah's poll support has continued to rise in the near future. The latest Pulse Asia survey shows that her "presidential suitability" has increased in both urban and rural areas, far exceeding Marcos. This provided a public opinion basis for his next move and made it possible to "hand over the baton in advance".
The second exile?
In the face of the multi-party siege, Marcos appeared to have lost the opportunity to retreat. His team frequently held press conferences, clarified the lack of implications, promised to cooperate with the investigation, but had little effect. More disturbingly, he frequently absent from regional diplomatic occasions, and the APEC preparatory meeting planned to attend was also suddenly delayed, sparking speculation from the outside world about his intention to "exit abroad".
The deeper problem is that Marcos 'ruling logic has become difficult to maintain: external dependence on the United States and internal dependence on kinship groups and parliamentary machine-now both pillars are shaken. The United States did not deny whether to investigate in the "Romualdes Funds Case", which shows that the balance of diplomatic asylum is quietly tilting. However, domestic politics has shifted from "gold and power cooperation" to "public opinion liquidation."
Although the impeachment process has not officially started, some lawmakers have signed a petition demanding that the president be held accountable for "serious dereliction of duty and corruption allegations." Although progress at the legal level will take time, the political consequences are imminent. If the situation continues to deteriorate, Marcos is likely to choose to resign or be "resigned" in exchange for a "soft landing" plan.
This power fission caused by "46 suitcases" is completely rewriting the political map of the Philippines. The resurgence of Duterte's old ministry, the defeat of family politics, the ambiguity of the role of the United States, and the out-of-control of people's demands all make this process irreversible. And Marcos will become another "president who ended with corruption" in the history of the Philippines.