The trade war has lasted for seven years, and China is getting stronger and stronger, backed by four trump cards.
From 2018 to 2025, the U.S. tariff bars waved for seven years, originally thought to curb China’s development, but the results were unexpected – China was not only not beaten, but the harder it was, the stronger it was.
Recently, the Trump administration has also threatened to impose an additional 100% tariff on China, but the Chinese side still calms itself.British experts pointed out that China is not afraid of U.S. tariff threats, because in the hand holds four cards, one of which is also described as a "fatal killer", enough to let the calculation of the United States empty.
01 Global market diversification: no longer relying on the United States
The restructuring of China’s trade map has become the first line of defense against U.S. tariff shocks.The data show that China-U.S. trade in 2024 is about $683.3 billion, which sounds huge, but only accounts for 11 percent of China’s total import and exports, contributing less than 3 percent to China’s GDP.
The importance of the U.S. market in China's trade is rapidly being marginalized.
China's trade partners are increasingly diversified: by 2024, China's trade with ASEAN has exceeded $900 billion, an increase of 10%; in the Middle East, energy settlement is increasingly completed using RMB; in Africa, China's mobile phone brand market share is more than 40%, becoming the market leader.
Professor Vanjao of the Beijing Master's University pointed out that "in 2024 the share of exports of the "Belt and Road" countries has reached almost half the wall of Jiangshan, and the number of China-European routes has also broken."This means that even if the U.S. raises tariffs to 200%, it can only block a small market, and China has a diversified trade feast globally.
02 U.S. debt strategic bargaining chips: the "hostage effect" that the United States dare not bear
As of the end of 2024, China still holds about $759 billion in U.S. debt, a figure that, although only 2% of the total U.S. debt, is of strategic importance.
Any statement by China about “considering the diversification of foreign exchange assets” is enough to tension Washington’s policymakers.
Once China massively reduces U.S. debt, it will boost U.S. government bond yields, boost U.S. government and corporate borrowing costs, and may even shock the U.S. dollar system.
The Financial Times analyzes that this interdependence has caused the United States to frequently mutate at the negotiating table, such as temporarily reducing tariffs from 125 percent to 100 percent, and behind this layer of invisible pressure.
China's foreign exchange reserves provide sufficient resilience and preparedness to deal with external shocks.
Institutional advantages: Efficient execution compared to internal consumption
In the process of dealing with the trade war, China's institutional advantages are especially highlighted at critical moments.In contrast to the political division and party struggle in the United States, China is able to quickly launch and implement a series of policy combinations.
Shenyang, a professor in the Department of International Politics at Shanghai Fudan University, pointed out that in the second half of this year, the actual deterrent effect of customs instruments has rapidly diminished after experiencing the game of direct trade between China and the United States being actually interrupted by more than 120% of tariffs.
China's policy "second landing" capacity is remarkable - tax cuts, tax refunds, loan interest rates, etc. A series of measures for reducing the burden of enterprises are rapidly launched.
Scientific and technological industry observers Han Liang concluded: "From the beginning of the 2018 trade war, China has hastened to respond, which field the United States will fight, China can only follow the response, to today in the toolbox has a lot of tools, the whole science and technology war trend, from the initial passive, gradually shift to the active."
04 Rare earth brand: the real "deadly killer"
Among the four trump cards in China's hands, rare earth resources are recognized as the most deadly weapon. More than 70% of the world's rare earth supply comes from China, and high-tech industries and military equipment are inseparable from this key raw material.
In April 2025, China announced the implementation of export controls on seven rare earth items, which directly triggered a strong reaction from the U.S. technology industry-Apple's supply chain costs surged, Tesla's electric vehicle production was blocked, and military projects faced shutdowns.
Guskaland, an expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies at the U.S. think tank, said: “China’s rare-earth export regulations are aimed at overseas defense manufacturers, which makes the situation especially serious.
Although the United States attempts to develop rare earth resources and conduct deep-sea mining in Greenland, the technology is immature, the cost is too high, and the purity of the extraction is far lower than that of China. China not only controls rare earth resources, but also masters rare earth refining technology. This dual advantage makes it difficult for the United States to find effective alternatives in the short term.
China's Response Strategy: From Passive Defense to Proactive Breakdown
In the face of a new round of trade war, China's response strategy has shifted from passive defense to active breakdown in the past.Peking Teacher's University professor Vang said that China's response logic includes market diversity, domestic product alternatives and domestic demand backbone.
In terms of scientific and technological autonomy, China's R & D investment in GDP continues to increase, and a number of leading companies have emerged in fields such as semiconductors and AI computing power. At the same time, the contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth has reached nearly 70%, and the consumer market has become a stabilizer for China's economy.
In the financial sector, the RMB cross-border payment system covers more than 100 countries, and mechanisms such as the BRICS countries and the New Development Bank are also accelerating.
China has also actively expanded its "circle of foreign trade friends" through the "2025 Tariff Adjustment Plan", and implemented agreed tax rates on some imported goods originating in 34 countries or regions under 24 free trade agreements and preferential trade arrangements, making trading partners more diversified.
Looking back on the past seven years of trade war, the United States has gradually shown fatigue from the initial aggressiveness. Shanghai Phuket University professor Shenyuan judged that the US government leaders "emotionally" threatened to impose 100% tariffs, is highlighting its lack of effective strategic game tools.
And China’s response has become more tolerant, as experts say, the strong resilience and resistance of China’s economy is enough to make it stable in this lasting war.