Original Chen Hongbin Bottom Line Thinking Shanghai

Published by: ÎÄ/observator networks column author ³Âºè±ó

Director of the Information Institute of the Shanghai Institute for International Affairs, specializing in Japanese politics and diplomacy

The Self-Democratic Party and the Public Party talks collapsed, giving the first memoir of the high city that could have become the first female prime minister of Japan, and also brought huge variables to Japanese politics.

At the end of the 10th meeting, the back of the meeting was harsh, disclosing to the media that the Communist Party unilaterally ended this cooperation. Because the Communist Party was very hostile to the extreme right-wing giant of the Democratic Party, Mahatma Gandhi, and the high-ranking personnel arrangements of the Communist Party before Mahatma Gandhi, but the high-ranking politicians, including the appointment of Mahatma Gandhi as vice president, and the appointment of Mahatma Gandhi as the director of his faction, this clearly made the Communist Party unhappy, the Communist Party's sense of mistrust in the Communist Party further strengthened.

During the day's talks, Takashi Takashi asked the Komeito Party to allow the party to consider for another three days and respond to the party's conditions early next week. However, the Komeito Party was very strong: it could not wait a day and must reply on the spot.

On October 10, Japan's Communist Party leader,Õ«ÌÙÌú·ò (left) and the Chairman of the Communist Party, CaoÊÐÔçÃç, held talks in Congress.

In fact, the prospect of this meeting is not optimistic, since it is certain that the Communist Party cannot be retained, there is also no way to break up.The Communist Party had thought that the party had shown enough sincerity, and estimated that the Communist Party would unite to wait for three days to respond, but it is not expected that the Communist Party's position would be so decisive.

As early as 4 this month, after being elected the new president of the Democratic Party, he immediately met with the representative of the Communist Party, Rajto Tifov, in order to maintain cooperation between the two parties. Since now the two parties have combined less than half of the seats in Congress, if the cooperation with the Communist Party is unfortunate, the possibility that the Communist Party will dominate Japanese politics will be further discounted, so for the Communist Party, of course, is very hopeful to continue this cooperation.

The Communist Party said that if it wants to continue to cooperate, the high-ranking prime minister would not be able to attend the Yakuza Temple during the term of office, and at the same time should not continue to show political gestures that exclude foreigners, and the self-government party must comprehensively block out politicians with a "black gold political" background in the party's senior and cabinet staff arrangements.

High City accepted the first two conditions, but stated that it could not accept the third condition. Because she received the strong support of the party's major, Moshin Tarot, in the previous presidential election, she must pay back in the staff arrangements. While the former Abe as a faction in the party has dissolved, it is after all the first major faction of the self-government party. If it is not supported by many of the faction's major people, High City Ranpin is clearly unable to exert its political ambitions.

Many bosses of Aso and Abe are closely related to "black gold politics". If these politicians are to be completely banned, takaichi sanae will fall into unprecedented isolation in the party, so she would rather risk the political risk of breaking up with Komeito Party than offend those politicians who have an affair with "black gold politics". In this case, the breakup between the Liberal Democratic Party and the Komeito Party is inevitable.

The self-government party has only 196 seats in the House of Representatives, plus the original 24 seats of the Communist Party, and there is a certain distance from the majority of 233 seats.

At present, the Liberal Democratic Party has only 196 seats in the House of Representatives. Including the original 24 seats in the Komeito Party, it is still a certain distance away from more than half of the 233 seats. Now that the Komeito Party has left, the Liberal Democratic Party will face greater uncertainties if it wants to continue to maintain its dominant position in politics.

Already at the time of being elected president, CaoÊÐÔçÃç had sent Aikido to the National Democratic Party, which had 27 seats in the House of Representatives, and expressed his intention to join the party, but the party's representative,ÓñľÐÛÒ»ÀÉ, responded resolutely, and did not consider the issue of joining the self-government party.

In fact, at present, the opposition parties in Japan are in urgent consultation to try to put forward a common candidate in the upcoming prime minister nomination elections, with the high-market early-money one-of-a-kind females. The number one in the opposition Constitutional Democrats in order to make every effort to promote this, has "high gesture" has expressed consideration for the common candidate of Yumiko Yumiko Iro. In this context, this "olive branch" from the high-market early-money is clearly unattractive.

On October 10, Yuichiro Tamaki told the media that he was ready to become prime minister Kyodo News

It is due to numerous uncertainties that the election for the nomination of the prime minister, scheduled for 15th, has been postponed to 20th of this month or later.

As for whether to defeat the joint candidate in the opposition in the early morning, there is a lot of doubt, because the number of seats in the opposition is significantly higher than the number of seats in the parliament. The high city has a high probability of becoming the president of the self-government party in the field, which is undoubtedly a very embarrassing situation for her. Even before it has been that she has already internally appointed the Cabinet's second-person chief of staff and foreign ministers, is it too early for her? Your prime minister's grandfather is still in the sky, but has already begun the cabinet staff arrangements. How many points have you won in the prime minister's nomination election?

Due to the great differences in basic political concepts, although the Liberal Democratic Party and the Komeito Party achieved joint governance in 1999 due to strategic considerations, the two sides have had frequent bumps in the process of cooperation over the years. Especially during Abe's two nearly nine years in power, the right-wing political line was fully implemented. Differences and conflicts between the two parties continued to become prominent. The joint governance of the two parties has actually been "walking a tightrope" over the years. In order to maintain its status as a coalition ruling party, the Komeito Party had to repeatedly make concessions to the Liberal Democratic Party against its will. This move made the party angry about this cooperation, and calls to stop working with the Liberal Democratic Party grow year by year.

But if the Communist Party cannot clearly adhere to the party's position, it is very likely to shake the party's basic principles and spirit, so this Communist Party is no longer willing to make any concessions: if the Communist Party is willing to accept three conditions, you can continue to cooperate, if you refuse one of them, you will separate.

The next prime minister's nomination election was another blunder for the high market early. Because now the Communist Party has also joined the opposition camp, the political pattern has changed significantly, and if the Democratic Party cannot beat the united opposition party in this election, then it may happen to change the regime, and the Democratic Party again falls.

Even in the prime minister's nomination elections, high markets are at risk, but in the future regime operations, how can such a weak self-government party reassure and deal with those aggressive opposition parties, high markets are afraid to make the whole number useless. As for whether it can succeed in identifying new cooperation objects, even if the self-government party lowers the body, it is difficult to accept the other party's demanding demands, the self-government party has the hope to increase its strength a little.

Among the current 465 seats in Japan's House of Representatives, as mentioned earlier, the Liberal Democratic Party has only 196 seats, the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, has 148 seats, and the next ranking third is the Japan Restoration Council with 35 seats. Since the goal of the Cadet Democratic Party is to further expand the party's power and strive to surpass the Liberal Democratic Party and become the largest party in the next House of Representatives election, it is impossible to consider joining forces with the Liberal Democratic Party, and the Liberal Democratic Party also has no intention.

That is to say, even if the self-government party can unite with the National Democratic Party, the same can not reach more than half. If you want more than half, you must cooperate with two or more in the opposition party. and the crowd is crowded, even if the self-government party has made the power of the storm to the three party joint rule, but the coordination between the three parties in the future is not less difficult than playing with the opposition party.

Not to mention the political agenda of the Japanese parliament, there will be many major events in diplomacy. First, the ASEAN summit will be held in Malaysia later this month, and the Japanese Prime Minister is scheduled to attend. Trump will visit Japan on the 28th of this month, followed by the APEC meeting to be held in South Korea at the end of this month. Of course, the Japanese Prime Minister should also attend. It is still unknown who will represent Japan at that time.