Author: Li Qing, Executive Vice President of Shaanxi Institute for International Issues Research
Local time on October 9, The day before the Nobel Peace Prize was announced, Trump and all parties announced that "the Gaza War is over."。
The timing of this announcement is particularly delicate. Just the day before, he hinted that he was "close to achieving the eighth peace achievement" and claimed: "We have solved seven wars, and we are close to solving the eighth war … Maybe they (the Nobel Committee) will find a reason not to award me the prize."
The timing and change of discourse sharply echoed the time when the Nobel Prize was announced, and constituted a part of Trump's "political utilitarian show". The reality proved that Trump's dream did not come true. In fact, the stability of the ceasefire is extremely limited and the prospects for peace are still dim.
In Tel Aviv, Israel, a citizen held a sign thanking U.S. President Donald Trump at the weekly "Take Them Home" rally in Hostage Square.
The “false fire” of the ceasefire agreement: bypassing the twentieth core
Amid the din of media applause and doubts, what really deserves attention is not the ceasefire agreement itself, but the substantive issues behind the agreement that have been deliberately ignored: Demilitarization, Hamas's basic position, Israel's security demands, and the future governance of Gaza.
The so-called “Twenty-Point Plan” does not address these core issues. Hamas does not speak about deployment of weapons and dealing with ground problems, while Israel claims to “destroy Hamas completely” remains the unchanged goal. In other words, the agreement at this stage does not solve the “peace in Gaza” issue, but only a temporary arrangement for “prisoners to exchange hostages.”
Palestinian-Israeli ceasefire agreement document
As Trump reiterated on October 9, his primary task was to “release prisoners” rather than a “permanent ceasefire.”When asked whether to guarantee that Hamas will disarm and that Israel will not bomb Gaza again, he replied: “The first thing we have to do is rescue our hostages ... then let’s see.”
Hamas 'compromise is more due to practical pressure. Since May, the Israeli army has almost fully controlled Gaza's main Urban area, and Hamas's hostage leverage has shrunk sharply. The so-called "release of all living and dead hostages" is more like the last chance to exchange prisoners in exchange for political respite. For Hamas, giving hostages, retaining weapons, and throwing away the burden of reconstruction are the most expensive options at the moment.
However, the outside world widely misunderstands this process. Many We Media even said that "Hamas agreed to Trump's 20 Articles", but In fact, Hamas accepted the “Trump version of Egypt” under Egypt’s coordination, not Trump’s original draft.This difference means that Hamas does not recognize Trump’s legitimate status as a “mediator” in the Middle East, but rather as a piece of international opinion.
02 Fragile international intervention: Governance structures and funding gaps
After the ceasefire was reached, international community intervention in Gaza governance and reconstruction arrangements also emerged. In accordance with the existing disclosure arrangements, former British Prime Minister Blair will lead the international governance agency in charge of rebuilding governance in Gaza, and huge funding needs will be raised from the international community, of which the Gulf Arab states will take the lead.
The person in the picture is former British Prime Minister Tony Blair
While the intervention of the international community, especially the leadership of Western politicians, provides an organizational framework for reconstruction, its effectiveness and fairness face serious challenges. The biggest challenge comes first from the issue of de-militarization. If the ground and armed issues are not resolved, the governance and reconstruction work of international institutions can be brought to the east by new conflicts. Civil reconstruction under the shadow of the military is no different than castles on the beach.
Secondly, there is huge funding needs. The cost of reconstruction in Gaza is astronomical. Although the international community has pledged support, Major funding remains dependent on the Gulf StatesSuch structures as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar also mapped the complexity of the Middle East political and economic pattern, the Western-dominated governance framework, the Gulf states providing funding, while the future of the Palestinian people remains undecided.
However, the international community's willingness to participate in the governance of Gaza will fluctuate as the environment for the confrontation between Hamas and Israel changes. Once the war is rekindled, it will be difficult for international forces to survive, and reconstruction efforts will surely fall short.
03 Obstacles to the Peace Plan: The Shadow of Trump's "Deal of the Century" and the Dilemma of the "Two-State Plan"
In the long run, The key to a complete ceasefire and lasting peace lies in the implementation of a just and feasible political solution, and the core is still the "two-state solution"However, one of the biggest obstacles to pushing for this plan is precisely Trump, who is closely related to the ceasefire, and his political tendencies.
On September 22, 2025, U.S. New York, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres (left) and the President of the United Nations General Assembly Ana Lena Belberg (right) attended the Middle East "Two-country Plan" meeting.
Trump has long had close ties with Israel's right-wing forces. The policies he promoted during his tenure, such as recognizing Jerusalem as Israel's capital, cutting aid to Palestine, and the Abraham Agreement, which normalized relations between many countries and Israel, all show that his foreign policy clearly favours Israel and undermines Palestine's prospects for statehood.
The most typical case is the "Deal of the Century" on the Palestinian-Israeli issue raised during Trump's first term. The core design of the plan is an attempt to demand Palestine to abandon the "two-state" ideal and fully commit itself to Israel's dominance through the temptation of huge economic interests and political coercion. This plan essentially traded economy for political sovereignty. It was widely regarded as a denial of the "two-state solution" and was widely opposed by the Palestinian side and even the international community, and ultimately ended in failure.
In this context, the fair “two-country plan” promoted by Trump and recognized by the international community has little effect, and the ceasefire he is currently pushing is based more on the interests of the future than on respect for the right of the Palestinian people to self-determination and the ideals of building a state.
The Cold Reaction in the Middle East
During this Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the reactions of Islamic countries in the Middle East showed a complex polarization pattern. Except for the Iranian-led "arc of resistance", including Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthi armed forces in Yemen, which actually participated in military resistance, other major Arab countries, Turkey, etc., have not directly intervened at the military level.
Palestinian police return to Gaza City after ceasefire agreement
These countries’ gestures of “resistance to Israel” basically remain at the level of moral support, diplomatic condemnation and humanitarian aid.Particularly remarkable is the fact that despite the intense public speech, on a real level, many Arab countries have not broken their economic and trade ties with Israel, and even some countries have quietly increased their trade. National interests and economic considerations, in many cases, go beyond ideology and national emotions.
At present, Gaza has a temporary ceasefire and enters the stage of reconstruction and governance expected by all parties, although the basis is weak and there are new conflicts, but as a major concern of the Islamic world, the Pakistani issue, the Middle East countries must be involved. At present, Turkey, Egypt, Qatar and other countries with the United States, to form a "joint action group", play a key role in mediation, coordination and diplomatic mediation.
Participation in the case of Pakistan in a non-war context is in line with the desire of these Middle Eastern countries. They can demonstrate their regional leadership through diplomatic coordination (Turkey, Egypt, Qatar) or through massive funding aid embody the image of their responsible great powers (Saudi Arabia, the UAE), thus establishing a positive political image in front of the Western world and their own public. This involvement is an important way for Middle Eastern countries to influence regional affairs without direct military intervention.
05 Netanyahu's "war life extension" and post-war shadows?
At the other end of the ceasefire is the warming political crisis within Israel.Netanyahu in the early days of the war lifted the flag of "destroy Hamas" to unite voters for national security, but his political position began to loosen with the expansion of casualties, economic downturn, and international criticism.
In Tel Aviv, Israel, Israeli people and families of detainees staged large-scale protests on the streets
Now that the war has been suspended, accountability has emerged rapidly.Israel’s internal demands for investigation of intelligence errors, wartime decisions, and the cost of operations in Gaza are growing. Netanyahu's strategy of "prolonging life with war" is not only drinking poison to quench thirst, but also as difficult to retract and release freely as a runaway horse, its insistence on "completely eliminating Hamas" has not changed, and its actions seeking to subvert the Iranian regime and continuously attacking the "arc of resistance" armed forces will also make a comeback.
This incident, packaged as a “historic ceasefire,” is more like A political marketing.。Hamas has not laid down its arms, and Israel has not given up its military goals. Trump has taken the opportunity to portray the image of a "peace mediator", while Arab countries have swayed between interests and public opinion.
The current ceasefire agreement in Gaza is only a tactical compromise, not a strategic and resolution.A reconstruction mechanism has not yet been established, the de-militarization issue has not been resolved, and the regional security framework is not feasible.A new round of conflict will be unavoidable once the international reconstruction funding allocation, control or humanitarian channels are freezed again.
For Trump, this may be a successful political show, but in the end it hasn’t replaced his thoughtful “Nobel Peace Prize”; and for the people of Gaza, it’s just another uncertain pause.
This article was published exclusively on Tencent News