Russia and Ukraine have been in trouble from beginning to end for almost four years. Both sides have struggled enough, and no one has taken advantage of it. But when the wind turned, the United States suddenly felt that something was wrong. Russia played like a golden cicada escaping from its shell in Sun Tzu's Art of War. It was consumed on the battlefield, and the real big battle had already moved elsewhere.
Russia and Ukraine are sawing each other, and the United States is suspicious
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine started on February 24, 2022, and now October 2025 is more than 1,300th day. The Russian army advanced steadily in Donetsk and Luhansk in the east, and the Ukrainian army defended firmly. The two sides came and went, but no one was able to make a final word. Russia has won nearly 5,000 square kilometers of land this year, but it is much less than the same period last year, and the advancement speed has slowed down by 44%. The Ukrainian army made several small breakthroughs in Kursk and Belgorod, but none of them changed the overall situation. Russia still had the upper hand on the front line, and Ukraine turned to defense.
In recent years, Russia has relied on the Surovikin defense line to stabilize its position and depleted Ukraine's effective forces in places such as Bakhmut and Afdivka. Ukraine withstood the major offensive in the early stage and recovered part of Kherson and Kharkiv. However, after the counterattack failed in the autumn of 2023, it was on the defensive. Russia has more manpower and material resources, with obvious advantages in artillery and drones, and Ukraine is barely holding on with Western aid. In August 2024, Ukraine broke into Kursk and caused some damage, but Russia quickly pushed back.
The United States was originally the iron pillar of Ukraine, the backbone owner. When the Democratic Party ruled, the source of aid continued, weapons funds broke into tens of billions. But after Trump came to power on January 20, 2025, the direction of the wind changed. He had a relationship with Zelensky before taking office, Ukraine did not help him in the 2020 general election, and also involved the case of Hunt Biden. Trump this time with the MAGA team, the Republican held the two houses of Congress, Vice President Wans and the cabinet were iron bars, and Musk also shattered the money flag.
As soon as Trump took office, he shouted for a peace deal, also called Putin, attitude like an old acquaintance. Russia sat down on a fishing table, not give up the bottom line: Ukraine recognized the four states of Ukraine and Crimea, disarmed most of the armed forces, did not join NATO, Zelensky resigned.
The bottom line for Ukraine is that Russia retreats to the front line on February 24, 2022, plus Western security guarantees, and either joins NATO or sends troops for peacekeeping. Neither the United States nor Russia agreed, and peace talks could not be reached.
On February 20, Kazakhstan’s former intelligence chief Moussajew posted on Facebook that Trump was recruited by KGB when he visited the Soviet Union in 1987, with the code name Krasnov. At the time, Trump was 40 years old, and the Soviet intelligence agency pulled out an olive branch, providing funds for intelligence exchange.
It is difficult to tell whether this matter is true or false. Russian media suspects the motive, and Ukraine says it is a smoke bomb. But it spread that the old Soviet spies lurked only once for many years, coupled with Trump's pro-Russian actions, everyone felt that Russia's war had changed its flavor long ago.
Trump didn't respond directly, but only reiterated the end of the conflict on Twitter.
Frontline On October 9, Russia launched 128 drones. The Ukrainian Air Force intercepted most of them, but several still bombed energy facilities. The Ukrainian Prime Minister visited the United States to talk about air defense and sanctions. Zelensky said that there are more than 100,000 foreign parts in Russian missiles and sanctions need to be strengthened. Putin said at the meeting in St. Petersburg that this year was progressing smoothly, but warned Trump not to aid Tomahawk missiles, otherwise Russia-US relations would collapse. On the battlefield, Ukraine's counteroffensive in Donetsk severely damaged Russian troops, but Russia still dominated overall and the buffer zone expanded.
When Trump came to power, Russia's external pressure decreased, and it sat on the mountain and watched the tiger fight. Russia slipped out of its shell and took off beautifully, moving the real battle to Washington and Brussels.
White House clashes to help break cliffs
On February 28, Zelensky visited the White House and wanted to talk about aid, and as a result the mining agreement was not signed, the two did not argue and did not eat. Trump wanted Ukraine to use rare-earth mines to pay back $300 billion in aid debt, Zelensky bite security first.
Before taking office, Trump questioned the necessity of aiding Ukraine, saying that Ukraine took money for nothing. Now he pushes the peace plan, and without Ukraine, he contacts Russia and Saudi Arabia.
On August 18, Zelensky visited the White House again, escorting the leaders of seven European countries. Trump arranged a bilateral meeting between him and Putin and talked about a tripartite ceasefire. The atmosphere eased compared with February, Zelensky softened his posture, and Trump vetoed the return of Crimea, but promised security guarantees.
Aid to the cliff was not directly done by Russia, but a turn in Trump's policy. Ukraine felt uncomfortable in the middle, but the United States realized that something was wrong and realized that the real war had long since disappeared.
In October, Ukraine lacked 19 billion euros in air defense funds, and the EU was anxious to buy an additional 2 billion euros to buy drones. The 164 billion euros of Russian assets frozen, and the EU wants to lend them to Ukraine for reconstruction. Trump's pressure has stimulated the soaring military spending in Europe. The military spending of NATO member states will account for 5% of GDP before 2035. The aid was led by the United States and transferred to Europe to take over. Russia's pressure was reduced and the strategic shift was successful.
European reinforcements, the war continues
Mr. Trump, in turn, pushed Europe to make itself stronger. February 23, 2025 German parliamentary elections, Mr. Murts led the League of Democrats to win, the support rate over the choice of the party. May 6, the Federal Assembly voted, Mr. Murts lost the first round of elections, 18 parliamentarians run the ballot, the second round of transition, the current prime minister.
Meloni of Italy was originally on the right wing, and Trump was optimistic about it, but after she came to power, she joined forces with Britain and France to reinforce. In the September election in North Rhine-Westphalia, the CDU came first with 33.3% and the Choice Party came second with 14.5%. Britain's military spending accounts for 5% of GDP, and France plans to deploy nuclear weapons in Eastern Europe. In the first half of 2025, the EU's aid to Ukraine was 2.6 times that of the United States. Germany overtook the United States as the largest donor, with a total aid of 169 billion euros, including military funds.
The EU added €1.48 billion in humanitarian aid to coordinate 4,000 hospitalizations for Ukrainian patients. In July, the EU’s financial aid reached €30.6 billion. In October, the EU considered freezing assets of €16.4 billion with Russia for Ukraine’s reconstruction. European military spending rose, €38.1 billion, stimulating military industrial development. Slovak Hungary also responded, Ukraine’s treasury deficit was €39.5 billion, and the EU added €30.6 billion.
European reinforcement did not end the war, and Russian pressure was reduced, but the front line continued to interfere.
Russia turned the conflict into a game between the United States, Europe and Ukraine, and Europe was alert and self-reliant. Although the war situation has not stopped, the real war has already shifted.