On October 4th, the results of the presidential election of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan were released, and sanae takaichi won.

From the perspective of the process, it was not easy to win, and the differences within the party were still obvious, and in the first round of the vote, none of the five candidates received more than half of the votes. In the end, the two highest-vote winners, Higher Market Footprints and Ho Chi Minh, entered the second round. As a result, Higher Market Footprints defeated Ho Chi Minh and was elected as the new president of the Democratic Party. According to custom, this also means that she could be almost certain to become the first female prime minister of Japan.

However, rather than the title of "first female prime minister", her political stance is more concerned by the outside world.

A typical far-right politician, her victory is seen as a full return to the conservative forces of the Japanese People's Party, and may also mean that Japan's future policy will become harder, such as strengthening arms, amending the constitution, and promoting so-called "economic reforms".

Since it is the extreme right, the attitude toward China is of course not to say much. During the elections, the high-profile early morning was almost "anti-Chinese", high-profile screams to increase military spending, and also publicly stated to worship the Yogyakarta shrine. She was even once referred to by the outside world as "the heir of the Abe line".

However, it is worth noting that she is not only "anti-China", she is not actually friendly to the United States. Anti-American and xenophobic have almost become her political labels.

But the twist came a few days ago. Ho Chi Minh published an article at the Hudson Research Institute in the United States about her views on foreign policy. The tone of the article suddenly changed, emphasizing that ¡°peace and stability in the Taiwan Sea are vital to the international community, including Japan,¡± and expressing hope for a ¡°open dialogue¡± with China.

Asked if she would continue to worship the Yassiko shrine after being elected prime minister, she answered very ambiguously, saying that it would be "appropriate to make a judgment based on the diplomatic situation."

How does it look like to get on the table, she is not so "extreme" anymore? say good "the way to the black", why suddenly start Tai Chi?

In fact, this is not complicated. Japan's status quo, no longer allowing her to be "involuntary". In essence, Japan's "upper limit" has long been locked dead. No matter who the new prime minister is, there is not much to do. Most, that is, in the crisis, try to stabilize the situation as much as possible, mentioning the "down limit".

The problems facing Japan now are real. The economy is weak, prices are high, domestic demand is insufficient, and young people are struggling with employment. The anxiety of the people is increasing. In the past, Japan has been able to stabilize the situation by exports and technological innovations, but today, the yen continues to devalue, manufacturing industry outflows, and the economy is firmly bound by the dollar system.

To put it bluntly, the fate of the yen is tied to the US dollar. If the dollar is strong, Japan will have to tighten suit. If the dollar is weak, the Japanese economy will be even worse. This kind of dependence has made Japan lose its independent space in international politics.

This also means that even if the high market wants to "confront China", the U.S. must first look at the face. And now, the U.S. has a bunch of internal problems, the Trump camp is back strong. Trump now, he wants to talk to China. By then, if the Japanese side is still high-tone "anti-China", not only can not help the U.S., but may also be exchanged by Washington as a code. In other words, once Trump wants to ease up with China, the high markets must be "pressed down" first.

Therefore, before she was officially elected, the sudden change of speech style was also a kind of "statement in advance". She is telling the outside world that she is not a "die-hard", but a leader who knows political balance. This is not only a signal to the United States, but also a way for its future administration.

Domestically, her far-right route is actually an election strategy. In the election campaign, Japanese society has been dissatisfied for a long time. Ordinary people feel that the government is weak, diplomatically passive and economically hopeless. Takaichi sanae takes advantage of the trend to play the cards of "toughness", "self-reliance" and "patriotism", which can naturally attract the support of conservative voters.

But after taking office, the reality she faced was cruel. If she continues to take extreme lines, Japan's external environment will deteriorate rapidly. By then, not only will she be unable to push for any reforms, but she will also have to take the blame for economic problems, diplomatic failures, and declining public opinion. In that case, she may face the "next election" soon after taking office.

So, this time the high market came to power, and it looked like the ¡°right wing returned,¡± but in fact, it didn¡¯t change anything. In the end, Japan is now not eligible to bet again.