The two days of Japanese politics, the wind shifted. Originally considered as the new prime minister candidate, the new chairman of the self-government party, Cao市早苗, its front-route mutant number. The latest signs show that the next prime minister of Japan is likely not high market, but equally ambitious Japanese national democracy party leader玉木雄一郎.
The ruling coalition broke, Japan's prime minister's throne suspension rebirth
On the afternoon of October 10, local time, the party-leader talks lasted for less than half an hour, and the Liberal Democratic Party and the Komeito Party, the "old partners" who had cooperated for 26 years, ended in the collapse of negotiations. After the meeting, the leader of the Komeito Party, Tetsuo Saito, simply announced his withdrawal from the ruling coalition directly in front of the media, dropping a blockbuster in Japanese politics.
Nearly at the same time, the leader of the Japanese National Democratic Party, Yuyuki Miyamoto, wrote on the “X” platform, “I have made a decision to run for prime minister.” he also said: “The Constitutional Democratic Party has nominated me as prime minister candidate, and I am well prepared to serve as prime minister.”
The X Platform
According to the Yomiuri Shimbun, the Constitutional Democratic Party, which has 148 seats in the Japanese House of Representatives, is discussing the election of a common prime minister candidate of the opposition party. According to sources, Noda Yoshihiko, the leader of the Constitutional Democratic Party and former Prime Minister, has recently contacted Yuichiro Tamaki, but the formal nomination has not yet been finalized.
On the same day, the Japanese People's Congress also released a signal of cooperation. Osaka governor Qi Momoyuan openly stated, "If the Constitutional Democratic Party decides to support Yumi in the election, the People's Congress is willing to consult with the Constitutional Democratic Party and the National Democratic Party on voting matters."If these three parties succeed in alliance, the total number of parliamentary votes will still be less than half, but will still exceed the seats held by the Democratic Party separately.
Japanese House website
Within the ruling camp, the wind direction has quietly loosened. Taro Aso has always been dissatisfied with the Komeito Party's long-term constraints on the policy agenda. Even before the Komeito Party announced its withdrawal, he privately threw an olive branch to Yuichiro Tamaki. At the same time, Takaichi Sanae also made conditions to Tamaki, promising to make him finance minister in the new cabinet.
In the House of Representatives election in October last year, the ruling coalition between the Liberal Democratic Party and the Komeito Party failed to obtain more than half of the seats, only obtaining less than 233 seats, making the candidate for the prime minister suddenly suspicious. The National Democratic Party has suddenly emerged, soaring from the original 7 seats to 28 seats, becoming the "key minority" in the political situation.
This means that Yuichiro Tamaki has two options in front of him: one is to form an alliance with the Liberal Democratic Party, but can only serve as finance minister; the other is to coordinate with opposition forces such as the Constitutional Democratic Party and the Japan Restoration Council to strive to become a co-candidate for the opposition alliance through the election of the Prime Minister of the National Assembly.
However, Tamaki himself seems to have made a clear position on one of the lines. On October 9th, in an interview with Japanese media, he made it clear that he would not jointly govern with the Liberal Democratic Party. He believes that even if the National Democratic Party and the Liberal Democratic Party unite, it will be difficult to secure more than half of the seats in Congress. "This kind of unity has no substantive significance".
As for the other route, on October 11th, Yuichiro Tamaki reiterated in a speech in Osaka Prefecture that if he wants to become the opposition party's unified prime minister candidate, all parties must be consistent in basic policies. He said he was ready to be prime minister at any time, but it was too naive to deal with prices or form a short-term cabinet, because policy differences would make it difficult to maintain a patchwork government. Later, he pointed out more directly in the interview that he could not cooperate with the Constitutional Democratic Party at present, implying that he would not easily join the opposition coalition until conditions were ripe.
Judging from his public statement, Yuichiro Tamaki's desire for the position of prime minister is obvious, but his attitude of waiting for a high price and repeatedly weighing is afraid that others will not see that he does not want to be a "short-lived prime minister." This carefully calculated "three words and three concessions" is more like calculating how to sell yourself for a good price in the political market.
Originated from the bureaucratic system, attached to the former prime minister, the family of Dai Pyeongchang was elected to parliament.
According to public information, Yumiko was born in Shangawa County, Japan in 1969, and was the eldest son of three brothers in the house. His old house was located in the field, his grandfather was the head of the Agriculture Association, his father was responsible for livestock work in the local Agriculture Association, and his mother served in a nearby retirement home. In his primary school graduation paper, he wrote his dream of “being Secretary-General of the United Nations in the future.”
With excellent achievements, Yumiko Yumiko was admitted to the Law Faculty of the University of Tokyo, and graduated in 1993, entered the then Tibetan province (now finance province), was assigned to the general business class of the main planning bureau.
Three years later, he was given the opportunity to study in the United States, but because the main agency work hardly required English, his English scores were not ideal, and several applications for American schools were missed. Eventually, Harvard Kennedy College admitted him, but an additional condition was to complete the summer English course before.
After returning to China in 2002, Yuichiro Tamaki was seconded to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Cabinet Office, so he took the typical academic bureaucratic political elite route. Interestingly, while working in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, he was in charge of Jordan and Libya, even visited Libya, which was sanctioned by the United Nations, and met Gaddafi in a desert tent with a Japanese businessman group.
Website of Yuichiro Tamaki National Democratic Party, who visited Middle Eastern countries during his secondment to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs
In addition, during his tenure in the Cabinet Office, he served three administrative reform ministers, Nobuhiro Ishihara, Kazuyoshi Kaneko, and Seiichiro Murakami. I also met Shinzo Abe himself. At that time, Abe was still secretary-general of the Liberal Democratic Party. However, Kagawa District 2 had already arranged candidates, and Abe rejected him.
He said that he was tired of the factional rivalry within the Liberal Democratic Party, so he resigned as a civil servant in 2005 and ran for the House of Representatives election in the 2nd District of Kagawa Prefecture for the first time, but he was defeated because of his bureaucratic status and his parents were members of the Liberal Democratic Party.
After losing the election, Yuichiro Tamaki learned that he was distantly related to his fellow villager and former Prime Minister Masayoshi Ohira. In order to win the support of Ohira's family, he visited Ohira Masayoshi's eldest daughter Yoshiko Morita under the matchmaking of Seiichiro Murakami, and got to know Ohira's granddaughter Mitsuko Watanabe.
Since then, Mitsuko Watanabe served as Tamaki's public secretary, publicizing that he had "inherited the spirit of Dahei" and calling on Liberal Democratic Party supporters in the constituency to support him. In 2009, Yumi successfully ran for office again and was elected to the House of Representatives. He has since been re-elected to this day.
Adhere to the "middle road" line, but popularity "benefits" from extramarital affairs scandals
Like former Japanese Prime Minister Noda Yoshihiko, Yuichiro Tamaki was born in the Democratic Party of Japan and belongs to the new force after the split of the Democratic Party. In Japan, he is famous for pursuing the middle line that does not depend on the big party, the so-called "middle way" strategy.
Yuichiro Tamaki (left) and Noda Yoshihiko Jiji News Agency
In 2016, the Democratic Party and the Reform Party merged to form the Japan Democratic Progressive Party. In 2017, Japan's Democratic Progressive Party split greatly, and the left-wingers in the party left to establish the Constitutional Democratic Party. Yuichiro Tamaki also left the Democratic Progressive Party. In September, he joined the Hope Party founded by Tokyo Governor yuriko koike.
In November of the same year, because Yuriko Koike was "busy with Tokyo Metropolitan Government," Yuichiro Tamaki took over the baton and became the actual helm of the Party of Hope.
In May 2018, Yuichiro Tamaki defied public opinion, integrated and established the old National Democratic Party on the basis of the remaining forces of the Hope Party and the Democratic Progressive Party, becoming the second largest opposition party, seeking independence from the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party and traditional competitors, and was elected as the party leader in September of the same year.
In September 2020, opposition parties such as the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and the National Democratic Party reorganized to form the largest opposition party at the time, and adopted the party name of the Constitutional Democratic Party. However, Yuichiro Tamaki and about a dozen members of parliament refused to join the new party and established a new National Democratic Party. In December of the same year, he was elected as the leader of the party and remains at the helm ever since.
In terms of policy positioning, Yumihiro Yumihiro positioned the New National Democratic Party as a "constructive opposition party", and politically dared to consult and exchange with the ruling party.
In 2024, Yuichiro Tamaki proposed to the ruling coalition to reduce subsidy measures such as gasoline taxes in exchange for the support of the National Democratic Party in the parliamentary budget review. Although this pragmatic strategy has attracted some opposition parties to criticize its stance as "weak", it has successfully attracted many centrist voters who are tired of political struggle.
Entering the 2025 Senate election, the National Democratic Party led by him advocates "boldly cutting taxes, increasing tax exemptions, and alleviating pressure on people's livelihood" and actively responds to the inflation challenges generally faced by society. At the same time, he also explicitly ruled out the possibility of joint governance with the Liberal Democratic Party, stressing that "we will never consider joining the ruling coalition to form a cabinet". This clear middle line won wide recognition from voters, and finally pushed the National Democratic Party's seats in the Senate to 22.
However, it is worth mentioning that Yuichiro Tamaki has never joined the cabinet before and has long been on the margins of the prediction of prime minister candidates. However, what is quite dramatic is that his public influence in Japan in recent years has been largely maintained by two "secret incidents".
In December 2024, he was first suspended by the National Democratic Party from serving as party leader for three months due to an extramarital affair scandal; however, he was not honest during his suspension. On February 23, he visited Taiwan again.
In November last year, the weekly magazine "SmartFlash" revealed that Yuichiro Tamaki and a 39-year-old model and artist had met several times in July and October. The weekly published a photo of Yumu wearing a gray hoodie coming out of the bar, and 20 minutes later, the woman followed.
In November 2024, Japanese media captured his extramarital affair and cheating weekly "SmartFlash"
Despite the scandal, Tamaki insisted on delaying the recognition of the incident in order to protect the interests of the election, and did not publicly apologize until the Prime Minister named the election day. At the press conference, he quoted his wife as saying, "If you can't even protect your close relatives, how can you protect this country?" And promised to "remember the lesson and reflect deeply" and "put national interests first and focus on policy implementation" in the future. However, this self-metaphor of "loving family means patriotism", with some sense of humor, can't help but seem ironic.
However, Yumi was clearly reluctant to only play the role of "home care." In order to hastily recover his dim image, he took a political speculative strategy despite diplomatic influence. On February 23, he invited Japanese Defense Minister Zhang Yuan to visit the Philippines and to visit the Taiwan region of China.
At the time, his out-of-marriage affair wave was still not calmed, Japanese netizens joked, "not even the family can keep, still run to talk about cooperation?" and people shouted, "home affairs are not handled well, directly promoted as a diplomatic ambassador, the speed of action is faster than playing games."
In general, Mr. Yumiko remains pragmatic in policy, and is attached to emphasizing that he does not succumb to the political image of the big party. He advocates tax cuts, reduces the burden of the people, and dares to negotiate with the ruling party, thus winning a large number of middle voters. However, Mr. Yumiko also shows some political speculation in the face of changes in domestic and foreign political situation. This rational and speculative politician is indeed the majority in Japanese politics.
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