Source: Direct News
Xinhua News Agency reported that North Korea held a grand military parade in Kim Il Sung Square in the center of Pyongyang on the evening of October 10th to celebrate the 80th anniversary of the founding of the Workers' Party of Korea. Kim Jong-un, general secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea and chairman of the State Council, delivered a speech at the military parade, and dignitaries from many countries attended the military parade.
Foot teams and cutting-edge equipment teams composed of various services and arms of the Korean armed forces have been read one after another. The new "Hwasong-20" intercontinental ballistic missile appeared in the military parade, and North Korean officials called it "the strongest nuclear strategic weapon system". What are the new highlights of the weapons and equipment of the North Korean military parade? What is the overall performance of "Hwasong-20"? Can it form an effective nuclear deterrent to the United States?
Source: The New York Times
North Korean Armed Forces.
In his speech, Kim said that defending national sovereignty, safeguarding the security and interests of the people is the supreme task and absolute mission of the North Korean army.The North Korean army must continue to develop into an invincible entity, eliminating all threats that approach the defense circle.
After the speech, the North Korean Armed Forces military parade team officially began to be reviewed under the leadership of Defense Minister Nu Kwang-tsu. The symbolic team, honorary cavalry team and other personal security forces of various historical periods first passed through Kim Il Sung Square; the southern border front line corps team, the front-line field military parade team, the naval team and the air force team followed closely; the strategic military team, the special operations team and the overseas combat force team were reviewed in turn.
Source: The New York Times
The artillery is called its "first arm" by the North Korean army. When the 600-mm rocket artillery team passed by, the North Korean army gave a introduction as "a new generation of core attack weapon systems that accurately strike the enemy's main targets, and the unique main body in the world. North Korean cutting-edge weapons." The long-range strategic cruise missile team, drone launcher team, and ground-to-air and ground-to-surface missile team entered the square one after another. The North Korean side introduced that "it demonstrates the world's infinite and strong national defense technology potential and amazing development speed."
Source: The New York Times
Subsequently, the hypersonic gliding missile team and the hypersonic medium-and long-range strategic missile team passed through the square. The "Mars-20" intercontinental ballistic missile team finally drove into the square, and the cheers reached a climax. KCNA reported on the 10th that the "Mars-20" intercontinental ballistic missile unveiled this time is North Korea's "strongest nuclear strategic weapon system."
In general, the main purpose of the North Korean parade is to demonstrate advanced weapons and strategic deterrence against the United States and Japan. The overall characteristic of the parade is that the proportion of new weapons and equipment is very high, showing that North Korea's progress in military technology is very rapid. But because of the relatively weak comprehensive national strength of the DPRK, the development of weapons and equipment is not a "destroyer" but a focus on the development of conventional ground weapons and strategic missiles, mainly to improve the level of equipment and strategic deterrence of the Korean ground forces.
“Mars 20” has been launched.
The parade most concerned by the outside world and North Korea's most proud "axis weapon", is also known as "can directly strike the United States" "Mars-20". "Mars-20" axis after the appearance, the parade ended, at this time the introduction to the Chinese news agency is "all participants to the great revolutionaries, outstanding patriots, the rare name of the world to comrade Kim Jong-un to the greatest glory".
In fact, Kim Jong-un personally participated in the investigation and ignition test of the "Mars-20" engine twice in September alone. On September 1st, Kim Jong-un visited the relevant research institute of the Comprehensive Research Institute of Chemical Materials affiliated to the Missile Administration of North Korea. The research institute made a high-power solid engine with carbon fiber reinforced plastic, and verified the reliability of the engine through eight ground ignition tests in the past two years. At that time, the Korean Central News Agency clearly mentioned in the report of this trip that this type of engine was planned to be used in the next generation of intercontinental ballistic missiles-"Hwasong-20".
On September 1st, Kim Jong-un visited the relevant research institutes of the Comprehensive Research Institute of Chemical Materials affiliated to the General Administration of Missile of the DPRK.
On September 8, the North Korean Missile General Administration will conduct the ninth ground test of the high-power solid fuel engine with the Chemical Materials Research Institute, which belongs to the final test of the development process, and Kim Jong-un personally participated again, showing the importance of this test.
On September 8, Kim Jong-un participated in the ninth ground test of North Korea's high-power solid-fuel engine.
In just a few years, the intercontinental missiles opened by North Korea have "Mars-15", "Mars-17" liquid fuel intercontinental missiles, "Mars-18", "Mars-19" and "Mars-20" solid fuel intercontinental missiles.
Shi Hong believes that, on the whole, North Korea's intercontinental missiles are developing towards stronger maneuverability, better reliability, faster response speed, greater strike power, more powerful penetration and higher accuracy. The "Hwasong-20" intercontinental missile, which was publicly unveiled for the first time in this military parade, is a typical representative of these development characteristics. Its main feature is to improve the load capacity by using high-power solid rocket motors. Because the thrust of the rocket engine is large enough, the intercontinental missile can have a stronger load capacity, so that it can carry a larger number of sub-guided nuclear warheads and have stronger penetration capabilities.
What is the deterrent ability against the United States?
It is worth noting that in his speech before attending the military parade on the evening of the 10th, Kim Jong-un reiterated that he would further strengthen national defense forces, but did not directly release information to South Korea and the United States. Instead, he mentioned that the North Korean military had won "overseas battlefields." Although the United States and South Korea were not mentioned, public opinion in South Korea generally believes that the "Mars-20" is intended to exert influence on the United States. Relevant sources from the South Korean military speculated last month that North Korea's "Mars-20" is still in the "early stage of research and development." Due to political considerations, North Korea disclosed the new missile in advance, or intended to "provide nuclear deterrence against the United States."
South Korean officials are also inclined to admit that North Korea has the ability to carry out a nuclear strike against the United States. South Korean Unification Minister Zheng Dongyong said on September 29th that it should be rationally acknowledged that North Korea has become one of the three major countries that can strike the United States. Zheng Dongyong pointed out that North Korea calls itself a "strategic country", and its strategic position is quite different from that of seven years ago (when the US-DPRK Singapore talks were held). We must first admit this reality.
However, South Korea also pointed out that whether North Korea has mastered "intercontinental ballistic missile re-entry technology" has not yet been confirmed, so it is too early to acknowledge its "capacity to strike the U.S. mainland".
Regarding whether North Korea has nuclear deterrence capabilities against the United States, Shi Hong believes that although the "Mars-20" is still in the research and development stage, North Korea's "Mars-15","Mars-17","Mars-18", and "Mars-19" intercontinental missiles have all been installed, so North Korea already has strategic nuclear deterrence capabilities against the United States.
In particular, the "Mars-18" and "Mars-19" solid intercontinental missiles have a fast response speed and have achieved land mobility and unsupported field launch capabilities, which also gives North Korea a "secondary nuclear counterattack capability." On the basis of possessing the "Mars-15" to "Mars-19" intercontinental missiles, North Korea has launched the "Mars-20" intercontinental missile, making its own intercontinental missile models richer and its strategic deterrence against the United States more reliable and powerful.
Regarding the prospect of future dialogue between North Korea and the United States, Shi Hong believes that as North Korea's strategic deterrence against the United States has changed from theory to reality, and it is still being consolidated, the U.S. policy towards the DPRK may gradually change from constant pressure to contact and dialogue. Especially when Trump is the president of the United States, it is more likely that the United States will have contact and dialogue with the DPRK. After all, when Trump first became president of the United States, he met with Kim Jong Un. However, the U.S. policy toward the DPRK will not change quickly, because even Trump, who is a "non-establishment faction", has to have a period of psychological adjustment. It is impossible to contact North Korea immediately just because North Korea constantly "shows its muscles" in intercontinental missiles, which will undoubtedly be regarded as "the United States is afraid of North Korea" in the eyes of the outside world.