He announced last night that, starting in November, he would impose a 100% tariff on all Chinese imports.This thing, seemingly unexpected to everyone, but has been in our expectation.
Before the Shanghai Composite Index was above 3880 points, I repeatedly reminded of market risks. In addition to emphasizing that market valuations are relatively expensive, another important external risk is that the market's expectations for the Sino-US tariff war are too optimistic.
At that time, I repeatedly emphasized to you that in the context of the great historical game between China and the United States, struggle is the main tone, and any easing in the middle is temporary. When I analyzed the tariff rate levels between China and the United States, I directly predicted that the lowest tariff rate between China and the United States would be during the negotiation stage. If a tariff agreement was reached later, the tariff rate should be higher, let alone any trouble in the middle. Higher retaliatory tariffs appear. Therefore, the market's expectations for a tariff war are generally underestimated.
So, let’s analyze why Trump is going to resume the tariff war at this sensitive moment. To know, before you expect, but at the APEC meeting at the end of October, the Chinese and American leaders will have a simple meeting. Because Trump has basically solved many difficulties at home and abroad, in April this year, the crisis of U.S. stocks and U.S. debt was very serious, Trump engaged in the tariff war, extortion from other countries, can increase the revenue of approximately $300 billion a year, the U.S. debt crisis was eased.
At the same time, Trump's vigorous development of stablecoins has reduced the interest payment pressure on the entire U.S. finance, and stablecoins are equivalent to adding new buyers to U.S. debt, a two-pronged approach.
As for the domestic U.S. economy, Trump passed the Big and U.S. Bill, which is essentially a massive U.S. tax cut – cutting down some benefits in healthcare and new energy, using that money to revive the U.S. manufacturing industry and tax cuts to residents and.
Then, after looking at the whole, we will find that when the tariff war in April, we made a retaliation with a fairly strong gesture, so that Trump was not quick, and after a few months, he successively settled all sides and internal and external issues, he now has a stronger backdrop, to start the tariff war.
So this time he imposed additional tariffs on us seemingly inexplicably, but in fact he had planned it for a long time. He felt that my trump cards were stronger now than before, and I had to give more chips. This cannot rule out Trump's emotional venting. It goes without saying how arrogant and conceited Trump is. He is very unhappy with our previous tough attitude.
He has made a lot of reforms, including allowing the U.S. Treasury to share some rare-earth enterprises, including strengthening the holding of these enterprises for Intel, etc. Some have joked that it was before we touched the U.S. cross the river, now is the U.S. is touching the rabbit of nationalism, in fact is the U.S. is strengthening national capitalism to better confront China, which is a long-term unchanging big strategy.
Finally, we analyze the performance of the market, when the tariff war in April, our A stock hit a low point that day, and then recovered, when I gave one prediction, was to focus on whether 3140 points could be stable, and if A stock fell through 3000 points, then it was a great opportunity to copy the bottom. The result was that 3000 points did not break at all, and 3140 points stabilized the next day, it was a great gold pit opportunity.
A stock has been slowly rising since then, between the markets appeared low or down, and many people would still think that this is a great copy-down opportunity. but I still advise everyone to be a little cautious, because now it is 3900 points, not 3100.
In the process, even if the national team wants to stabilize the bottom, it won’t waste too many bullets.
Because the entire market valuation has been relatively high, the valuation of Shandong 300 has exceeded 90% of the points in five years, it is really too high. And we go back, the national team in April during the tariff war its operational behavior, at the beginning it is also let all the stocks go down, let those sellers to sell, slowly go to the bottom. So this round is, the national team may have action, but the big move will definitely not be more than three thousand seven hundred and eight hundred to stabilize. For the general retailers, if you are still in the field, there are a lot of warehouses, then it is recommended to have a good time on Monday, but when the high drop is good.
Finally, let's talk about gold. Recently, gold has risen very well. Even after Trump's tariff war card was played, gold has risen slightly again, reaching 4,000 points again. Gold is indeed at a relatively high position. We can also pay attention to this round of gold, whether it will repeat the mistakes of April, and then consider whether we can continue to increase our positions.
Okay, pay attention to Brother Dalin and lead you to understand the truth of finance.