When China continuously launched a combination of rare earth and Qualcomm anti-monopoly investigation, the United States was really hurt. Trump's emotions were out of control, threatening to never allow China to take the world as a "hostage", and announcing that he would impose 100% tariffs on China. So, why did this "tariff offensive and defensive war" suddenly escalate? What impact will this have on Sino-US relations?
On October 10, local time, Trump continued to post on social media, first accusing China of "taking the world hostage", then announcing that from November 1, it will impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods and restrict key software exports. This move was interpreted by the outside as the US president's "emotion out of control", because he not only changed his mouth several times in a day, but also tried to put the tariffs into effect after the APEC summit, exposing a small calculator at his side to talk on the sidelines.
The cause of the matter is that the Ministry of Commerce of China issued several consecutive announcements on October 9-10, implementing export controls in areas such as rare earth, lithium batteries, super hard materials. The announcement clearly stipulates that overseas enterprises that use Chinese technology, equipment or raw materials to produce rare earth products, even if not manufactured in China, also need to obtain a Chinese license. and export applications involving military use or production of chips below 14 nanometers will be "approved by case" or even "principally not allowed".
This strategy accurately replicates the logic of the United States 'chip blockade against China. The United States once restricted China's access to high-end chips through the Export Control Regulations. Now China uses rare earths as leverage to reverse restrict the U.S. military and technology industries. Data shows that the United States relies on China for 80% of its rare earths, and rare earth purification technology is China's unique "killer weapon" in the world. When China tightens export controls on rare earths, the production costs of key equipment such as U.S. F-35 fighter jets and missile guidance systems will rise sharply, and even face the risk of production suspension.
What is even more worrying is that China has established “rule legitimacy” through export controls. All measures are carried out under the WTO framework and domestic law authorization, in sharp contrast to U.S. unilateral sanctions. This “strike-out” strategy not only boosts China’s voice in international trade rules, but also forces the United States to rethink the cost of “technological hegemony.”
For this reason, Trump once again offered the "tariff threat", trying to make up for the strategic imbalance with the old way. However, behind this seemingly tough approach is the deep anxiety of the American economy. At present, the debt scale of the U.S. federal government has exceeded 36 trillion U.S. dollars, with an additional 1 trillion U.S. dollars of debt every three months, and the debt interest expenditure exceeds the military expenditure. At the same time, the effect of manufacturing reshoring is limited, the cost of supply chain restructuring is high, and the willingness of enterprises to invest is sluggish. Although the Federal Reserve started to cut interest rates, the core CPI remained at 3.2%, and "stabilizing growth" and "controlling inflation" were in a dilemma.
In this context, if Trump forcibly imposes a 100% tariff on Chinese products, it will be tantamount to "adding fuel to the fire". On the one hand, tariff costs will be passed on to American consumers, exacerbating inflationary pressures. On the other hand, the secondary disorder of the global supply chain may impact the competitiveness of American companies. Wall Street analysts pointed out that all U.S. sanctions against China will be countered. The only question is, "how much harm does the United States want to do to itself before it stops."
At this stage, the US-China tariff game has entered a high-risk phase. Trump’s “100% tariff” threat is essentially an emotional outburst under hegemony anxiety, while China’s countermeasures are precisely countermeasures under the framework of rules. The tide of history is quietly sloping toward a more resilient and better use of the rules. For the United States, continuing unilateral pressure will only accelerate its own decline. Whether it is a debt crisis, manufacturing emptiness, or social division, has determined that the United States cannot bear the cost of a new round of trade war.
For China, maintaining strategic strength, deepening reform and opening up, and promoting self-reliance and self-reliance in science and technology are the fundamental ways to deal with external challenges. You know, in this game of great powers, China holds the three trump cards of rare earths, market and manufacturing, and the countermeasures are all carried out under the legality of rules. If Trump wants to avoid the "inevitable outcome", he can only give up the illusion of "extreme pressure" and meet China halfway on the basis of equality. Otherwise, the price paid by the United States will only be greater than imagined.