Recently, a Russian scholar named Sergei Karaganov lightly put forward an idea that could shake the world map at a conference: to build a super railway across the Bering Strait and connect China, Russia and North America.
He called it a “dream project” and admitted that there is only a 5% chance of it being achieved in 30 years.
However, this seemingly idyllic proposal is not an astonishing new thing, but a period of history that spans centuries.
It is like a prism, reflecting the eternal struggle of the great powers for geographic locks, the ultimate desire for strategic vitality, and the ancient impulse of mankind to connect the world.
When Karaganov talked about the railroad in Moscow, his shadow overlapped with the imperial engineers of more than a hundred years ago.
As early as the time of Tsar Nicholas II, Russia had the fantasy of opening up the Bering Strait and building railways to America.
At that time, the Russian Empire was crazyly expanding to the east, and the steel lanes of the Great Siberian Railway were like the blood vessels of the Empire, trying to bring life to the vast frozen land.
This dream, with Peter the Great's ambition and desire to become the hub of the world, was eventually drowned out by the revolutionary wave of the world war.
Time passed to the Soviet Union under the Iron Curtain of the Cold War, and this grand idea was given a new ideological color.
Sometimes it appears on strategists' sandboxes in the form of secrets of "American Railway", and sometimes it appears in posters as a super project showing the superiority of the system.
However, under the pattern of global confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union, it is tantamount to a fantasy to let the railway cross the strategic front lines of the two superpowers, and the dream is locked in a cold safe again.
Until recently, with the continuous improvement of China's infrastructure capabilities, the concept of a "China-US intercontinental high-speed rail" was proposed by some scholars and once again entered the public eye.
The planned line is also intended to cross the Bering Strait and connect Beijing and Washington by rail.
From Chao Russia to the Soviet Union, to today’s China and Russia, the core of the script has never changed, although the protagonists are changing: humanity has always dreamed of overcoming the last geographical barrier on Earth and connecting the mainland island completely.
Karaganov's proposal is but the latest page of this grand narrative.
So why can this seemingly impossible dream fascinate generations of strategists? The driving force behind it is profound and lasting.
The first is the temptation of resources and the development of land.
For example, this Russian scholar clearly pointed out: "The future development of Russia almost depends on Siberia."
This dream railway will be like a powerful artery, delivering money, population and development vitality to the scant and rich Russian Far East.
It is not only a high-speed channel connecting China and the United States, but also a super lever that drives the development of Russian domestic strategic backhouses.
Secondly, it is the coronation ceremony of the glory and technological strength of a great country.
A civilization capable of completing such an epic work will surely be remembered in history.
From the Suez Canal to the Panama Canal, to the English-French submarine tunnel, every project to change the geographical pattern is the summit of the country's comprehensive power and national confidence.
For today's countries interested in reshaping the global landscape, this railway is no less symbolic than a successful lunar landing plan.
Finally, it is the idea of breaking the traditional geographical pattern.
Such a railway will fundamentally reshape the global logistics and power map.
It would turn Russia from a country traditionally seen as the “rand” of the Eurasian continent to a “central corridor” connecting the world’s two most important economies.
For all participants, this is a strategic temptation to jump out of the old thinking of zero-sum game and try to build a cooperation framework in a higher dimension.
Compared with a hundred years ago, Karaganov's dream is revisited today, not simply repeated, but because new key variables have appeared on the stage.
China's infrastructure capacity and capital provide unprecedented tools for dreams.
The experience and technology accumulated in the construction of China's plateau railways, cross-sea bridges and huge high-speed rail networks have made it possible to loosen the "infeasible" technical barriers.
At the same time, the ambition of the "the belt and road initiative" initiative to reshape economic geography through infrastructure interconnection is also highly consistent with the spiritual core of such super projects.
The urgency of Russia's "turning eastward" strategy has actually injected strong political impetus into this dream.
In the context of the ongoing tightening of Western sanctions, the development of the Far East and the deepening of ties with the Asia-Pacific region have become Russia’s national survival strategy.
Recently, the Russian government has accelerated the modernization of Baikal-Amur Railway and Trans-Siberian Railway, which is laying a solid foundation for its Far East strategy.
Karaganov’s “dream” is precisely the boldest extension of this pragmatic strategy.
In addition, global climate change also brings new opportunities.
The melting of the Arctic ice sheet is making the "Arctic Waterway" a reality, and the accompanying concept of the "Silk Road on Ice" is heating up day by day. In this context, a railway running through the Russian Far East and connecting the North American continent can form a land-and-sea echo with the Arctic waterway and jointly strengthen Russia's position as the hub of the Eurasian Arctic.
Indeed, this intercontinental Sino-American railway faces an almost insurmountable iceberg: the technical difficulties of the Beijing Strait tunnel, the operational challenges of building railways on Eternal Frost, the astronomical investment in the arms budget of a country, and the most central - the fragile and well-changing strategic mutual trust between the three sides.
The “5% probability” that Karaganov acknowledged may have been optimistic.
However, we must not judge the value of a grand dream only by whether it is realized or not.
Like all the great scientific fantasies and engineering blueprints in human history, their initial meaning is often not to start work immediately, but to indicate a direction for the development of civilization, to inspire generation after generation to think, to innovate, to breakthrough.
This conception of the railway forces us to think about a future picture beyond the present geographical controversy: how will their relations evolve when the three great powers of China and Russia are physically connected by a steel track?
Will it become a win-win economic community or an amplifier of conflicts? This issue itself is a challenge and sublimation to current international political thinking.
Therefore, when that Russian scholar once again unfolds this blueprint of the dust seal, we need not rush to mock its unrealisticness.
Per the railway will never be accessible, but every discussion about it opens a window into the future for the human mind trapped in the present.
It reminds us that there is another possibility of connection and symmetry beyond Eternal Frost and the Strait, and that’s exactly where this 5% dream, 100% value, is.