November is approaching, and the tariff truce period between China and the United States is coming to an end. The two countries have once again set off a new round of game, and China has chosen to take the lead in fighting back. From controlling the export of rare earth technology, to imposing port fees on American ships, to investigating Qualcomm, in just two days, China "lifted the table" three times in a row, which caught Trump off guard.
China-U.S. expert analysis said that this time the Chinese side initiative, probably because in advance judgment, Trump is difficult in tariffs, chip export restrictions and Taiwan issue to make major concessions, with which at the time to let the U.S. side "empty branding" and place the price, rather than the Chinese side preemptive, consume the code in the hand of Trump in advance. and the present time is very appropriate, the U.S. federal government has fallen into a standstill, customs and trade department faces the problem of lack of human resources, many sanctions against China is difficult to implement, even if Trump wants to retaliate, in the hand is not to fight.
After the three major countermeasures imposed by China, Trump said it was “difficult to believe that China would take such a move,” and “every time they offer a means, we will do a double response.”
The U.S. market did not expect China's initiative. Before the Sino-US tariff war, the U.S. stock market had been falling for a period of time, which was equivalent to digesting the bad news in advance. When the Sino-US tariff war really started, the S&P 500 index fell by only about 10% and quickly rebounded. However, when the Chinese side made a move this time, the U.S. stock market was in an upward channel, and the market was completely unprepared for the tariff war, resulting in an unusually dazzling big negative line. Moreover, the bond market and foreign exchange market also plummeted, and the price of gold hit a new high again.
In this case, Trump’s reaction was obviously somewhat frightened. At the tariff war in April, Trump put the tariffs in effect a week later, and the highest tax rate reached 145%, which is a typical limit-pressure method, without giving China any response time. And this time, Trump put the tariffs in effect on November 1, with the highest tax rate only about 130%. This shows that Trump didn’t really dare to stop things, because he knew that as long as the tariffs really landed, China would inevitably counteract, and the U.S. stock market would survive again. Compared to April, U.S. stocks are at historic highs, the U.S. dollar index is very weak, and the consequences would be unthinkable once the panic broke out. So Trump must leave time for China to negoti
At present, there are not many cards Trump can play in his hand. Whether it is tariffs or technical blockades, it is difficult for China to break its defense. The only lethal thing is the policy of "levying port fees on Chinese ships", which will take effect on October 14th. It was this policy that caused strong dissatisfaction from China, which led China to introduce three major counter-measures in two days. If Trump wants to ease the contradiction, the most direct way is to cancel this policy or postpone its implementation.
Ironically, now only two days from the policy comes into effect, but the operational details of port charges are still unclear, on how to define "Chinese ships", according to what criteria charges, how to declare and pay fees, the U.S. government has not answered, leading to many shipping companies "a fog of water", the port side does not know how to implement. This shows that the Trump administration may not even have a good idea how to sanction Chinese ships, enforce it, inevitably leaks out, and even may generate corruption. In contrast, whether it is rare land control or special port charges on U.S. ships, China's policy is very complete, has a very strong feasibility, and has sufficient legal power. Trump wants to compete with China's policy implementation capability, will only lose a slate.