Israel's "promises" are indeed unreliable, and less than 24 hours after the ceasefire, it has been difficult for Trump to launch airstrikes on neighbors.

Israel had just announced that the ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip would come into effect, and it immediately launched fierce air strikes on neighboring Lebanon, claiming that Hezbollah's actions "pose a threat to Lebanon civilians." While promising a cease-fire and provoking a dispute, Israel¡¯s promises can be said to be worthlessIronically, Trump also announced that he would travel to the Middle East to celebrate the ceasefire in Gaza, and now it seems that Israel probably won¡¯t give him that chance, as the current conflict is at risk of re-emerging at any time.

There is no winner in the Israeli conflict, the Israeli army will continue to fight.

The two-year Palestinian-Israeli conflict has temporarily come to an end. The Israeli army promised to withdraw its troops, and Hamas agreed to release them. Both sides celebrated their ¡°victory,¡± but there was no so-called ¡°winner¡± in the conflict.¡£

On the surface, Israel has severely damaged Hamas through the two-year war, occupied large areas of Gaza, weakened the "arc of resistance" alliance led by Iran, and allowed Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Bashar regime in Syria, and the Shiite militia in Iraq to suffer varying degrees of blows.

However, this "victory" is extremely limited and can even be said to be a failure.

First, Israel¡¯s military victory did not translate into political or moral success, and despite the military¡¯s failure to eliminate a large number of Hamas members, it was precisely one of the core goals of Israel¡¯s launch of the war.

More fatal is the international image of Israel, severely damaged by the countless civilian casualties in the war and the prolonged blockade of Gaza, with two years of war that killed more than 670,000 Palestinians, and Gaza almost torn into ruins.

The result is an increasing isolation of the international community from Israel, and even traditional allies will openly disagree with Netanyahu¡¯s administration.

Secondly, despite its military defeat, Hamas has not been completely destroyed politically, and has ended up sitting at the table of negotiations, proving it remains an inescapable force in Palestinian politics.

It also means that Hamas may be forced to make concessions, but if Israel continues to exert pressure in the future, its remaining forces may still become the core of new resistance.

Furthermore, the turmoil in the Middle East has not ended, but is more complex, the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran continues, and Israel¡¯s harsh policies have not only failed to eliminate the threat, but have increased its own ¡°security risks.¡±

Last and most importantly, the U.S.-Israel relationship has thus undergone a subtle change, and while the Trump administration is still embracing Israel without a bottom line, Israel¡¯s tough stance also makes U.S. policy in the Middle East passive.

In the end, Israel¡¯s ¡°win¡± was partial and temporary. The cost is international isolation, domestic political pressure and long-term instability in the region.¡£

The ceasefire is very fragile, and war is resumed at any time.

Understanding this, it is not difficult to infer another conclusion: although the first phase of the Gaza ceasefire agreement has come into effect, Israeli troops have begun to withdraw from some areas, and Palestinians have gradually returned to their homes, but The ceasefire is very low and could collapse at any time.¡£

On the one hand, the core contradiction has not been resolved, and Israel¡¯s goal is not only a short-term ceasefire, but a complete disarmament of Hamas and the establishment of a regime in Gaza that completely excludes Hamas.

Hamas, however, cannot accept the demands of abandonment of arms and future political involvement, otherwise it would be self-destruction.

Israel¡¯s ultimate goal is in direct conflict with Hamas¡¯s survival needs, meaning a ceasefire is only a temporary ceasefire, not a lasting peace.

On the other hand, Israel¡¯s tough stance could break the ceasefire at any time, and Netanyahu made it clear that Israeli troops would continue to remain in Gaza to ensure the region¡¯s demilitarization and its goals ¡°in tough ways.¡±

If future negotiations are stalled, or Hamas refuses to make further concessions, Israel is likely to launch a military operation again.

Last but not least, the Israeli government does not seem to believe that this was a "failed" war, and even believes that it has benefited from it, and its nature of "military adventure" has not changed fundamentally.

This leads to the surge of risks of conflict in the Middle East, where Israel¡¯s recent airstrikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon accused it of reconstructing ¡°terrorist infrastructure.¡± Probably the trigger for the next conflict¡£

Israel, if there is a problem for Trump.

For the United States on the other side of the ocean, this is also a difficult problem, because If Israel wants to continue fighting, it must drag the United States into the water, and this is exactly what the current Trump administration is most resistant to and trying hard to avoid.

In particular, the Trump administration has also played an important role in the ceasefire in Gaza, even hoping to win the Nobel Peace Prize.

However, if Israel once again violates the ceasefire agreement, resumes massive military operations, and does not say that the hopeless Peace Prize of 2026 will lose arms with Trump, it will also directly impact the U.S. strategic layout, putting it in trouble.

First, Trump will face the embarrassment of bankruptcy of the Peace Promises, which he has repeatedly claimed to be pushing for a ceasefire and pressuring Netanyahu to reach an agreement as soon as possible.

If Israel goes back on its word and the war rekindles, it will be difficult for Trump to justify himself to the international community, let alone prove his ability to "solve seven wars".

Secondly, the Middle East policy of the United States will once again fall into chaos. The Trump administration hopes to stabilize the situation in the Middle East through a ceasefire and reduce the military burden of the United States in the region.

But if Israel continues to be tough, the United States will either be forced to put pressure on Israel or let the conflict escalate.

Moreover, Trump's personal political interests have been damaged. He has always longed for the Nobel Peace Prize and believes that he has "made outstanding contributions" on the Gaza issue.

If the ceasefire fails, his diplomatic achievements will be greatly discounted, and even become a trigger for attacks by political opponents.

Finally, Israel's unpredictability makes it difficult for the United States to control the situation. The Netanyahu government relies on U.S. support but is unwilling to fully obey U.S. command.

If Israel again acts unilaterally, Trump will face a tough choice of ¡°securing allies¡± or ¡°securing America¡±¡£