«--[· Preface ·]--»
How ambitious are Russia? Do you want to take down the United States after taking Ukraine? Can Putin's plan come true? China may be the key.
It is said that Putin is ambitious. As a result, Russia's series of conciliatory policies during the Russia-Ukraine conflict over the past two years have raised a trace of suspicion about this iron-blooded Russian leader. However, just recently, Putin once again proved with practical actions that Time has not changed his aspirations.
According to reports, on October 7, Russian President Vladimir Putin hosted a meeting of leaders of the Ministry of Defense and the Armed Forces Staff Headquarters in St. Petersburg. At the meeting, Putin ordered the top leaders of the Russian military that the Russian military will achieve all the goals of the special military operation.
«--[·Putin's meeting has hidden secrets·]--»
On October 7, Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared in St. Petersburg. He chaired a meeting of leaders of the Ministry of Defense and the Armed Forces Staff Headquarters. At the meeting, Putin gave a clear order to senior Russian officials: Russian troops would achieve all goals of the special military operation.
This statement made the outside world re-examine Russia's strategic layout. On the same day, Karaganov, a professor at the Russian Higher University of Economics, threw out a heavy proposal at the "RT Roundtable". He said that Russia should build a transcontinental railway connecting China, the United States and Russia, with Siberia as a springboard to connect the three countries in series.
The two news seem to be irrelevant, and the reality points to Russia’s long-term ambitions. Putin clearly understands that the outcomes of military operations require an economic layout to consolidate, and that the transnational railway is the key pitch in this game.
Russia’s economic data supports this ambition.Russia’s GDP grew by 4.1% in 2024 and its nominal GDP reached a historic peak of 200 trillion rubles.The growth in manufacturing is bright, with machinery manufacturing increasing by 20%.The steady recovery of the economy has given Russia a backdrop to driving such superprojects.
The 8,000 km railway blueprint.
The transnational railway, which is widely sought by Russia, has already had a preliminary route map. The planned route will start in northeastern China and extend along the coastline of eastern Siberia in Russia. It will travel through the Chukotka or Exploraca region and enter the U.S. Alaska after crossing the White Island Strait and eventually reach the west coast of the United States through Vancouver, Canada, with a total length of about 8,000 kilometers.
Relevant Russian scientific research institutions have drawn sketches. However, they all calculated their own accounts. Affected by multiple factors such as diplomacy and funds, the probability of the project landing in the next 30 years is only 5%. Even so, Russia is still reluctant to give up this idea.
The value of this railway to Russia is obvious. It can directly strengthen the transportation connection between Siberia and the Far East, and promote the long-term barren regional economic development. 100 years ago, the Trans-Siberian Railway connected the east and west of Russia, and this new railway may make Russia the "intermediate hub" of Sino-US trade.
Cost accounting makes the outside world speechless. According to World Bank data, the construction cost alone is as high as 800 billion yuan. This does not include additional expenses such as the Bering Strait cross-sea project and later maintenance. Russia itself knows that it is difficult to support it by its own financial resources alone. In their abacus, China's capital and demand are an indispensable link.
“China is a key variable.”
China-Russia railway cooperation has long laid the foundation. At the end of September, the China-European line "Eastern Canal" on the Shenzhen Railway was officially opened. This line raised the speed of China-Russia cross-border trains from 55 kilometers per hour to 120 kilometers, and doubled the transport capacity directly.
The "set track" design used in the project can meet the requirements for trains from both countries to pass on the same line, accumulating technical experience for transnational railways. In fact, as early as 2014, China scholars proposed a similar transnational railway concept.
The 1,30,000 km line planned at the time, designed at a speed of 350 km/h, could complete the cross-border journey between China and the United States in two days. For China, the strategic value of the railway cannot be overlooked. It can increase the share of China-U.S. land transport from less than 5% to more than 25%. More importantly, it can allow China to avoid sensitive channels such as the Malacca Strait and ensure the safety of strategic cargo transportation.
But China's attitude has always remained cautious. China already has a mature "the belt and road initiative" initiative as the core of international cooperation. Deep participation in Russia-led Sino-US-Russia railway projects may involve complex geopolitical risks. China is more inclined to advance steadily from existing cooperation, rather than rushing to take over such "super projects". This pragmatic stance makes China the core variable of whether the project can be promoted.
“Real barriers are overcome.”
The challenges facing the railroad are far more complex than imagined. The lack of political mutual trust is primarily due to the US-Russia-Ukrainian conflict relationship, and there is competition in many fields. The three countries need to deep synergy investment, unify technical standards and provide security guarantees, it is hardly possible at this stage. U.S. strategic concerns about Russia, Alaska's military sensitivity is strong, and it is likely to see civil railways as a security threat.
Engineering and economic problems are as difficult as they are. The Arctic region where the line passes through has permafrost and extremely cold environment, which is a great test for construction technology. During the reconstruction of Binsui Railway, the construction team had to cope with the low temperature of minus 30 to 40 degrees Celsius, and the concrete pouring could only be completed by the greenhouse method. The cross-sea project in the Bering Strait is an extreme challenge to engineering technology.
Uncertainty about economic returns also makes investors hesitate. Russia's Far East is vast and sparsely populated, and it is doubtful whether existing freight demand can support line operations. The current situation of railways in the United States is even more embarrassing. Local line equipment is aging and derailment accidents occur frequently. However, overseas railway cooperation must be considered, which is inevitably questioned by domestic public opinion.
“ ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ”
At the meeting, Putin stressed that "all goals will be achieved".Behind this determination, there is both the hardness of military action and the consideration of economic layout.The transnational railway between China and Russia may be only a blueprint for the time being, but it has exposed Russia's strategic ambitions.
However, under the current geographical situation, it takes greater political wisdom than building the railway itself to turn this steel Silk Road from an idea into a reality.