On October 9, 2025, Trump again acted demonically, intending to ban Chinese airlines from traveling to the United States through Russian airspace.
"Give China two days, and it will be banned if you don't respond!"
This is not a flight delay notice, but a "no-fly order" issued by the U.S. Department of Transportation.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded the next day: Reflect on yourself first.
Behind the two-day ultimatum, there is actually Trump's anxiety-Boeing's big order can't be negotiated, soybeans can't be sold, and farmers want to rebel.
The “business president” finally started playing trading cards again.
No fly order raid-48-hour ultimatum
On October 9, 2025, the U.S. Department of Transportation suddenly announced in a strongly worded "proposed order":
China airlines are prohibited from flying over Russian airspace on flights to and from China and the United States, and Chinese airlines are required to respond within two days-48 hours.
Without a “satisfactory explanation,” the ban will come into effect in November.
This paper order, like a bomb that hit the Chinese-American airport channel late at night, made it unclear for a moment whether it was a political action or a political performance.
According to Reuters, this order was "personally approved" by the Trump administration.
The White House claimed that the purpose of this proposal was to "correct unfair competition between Chinese and American airlines" on the grounds that Chinese flights could still fly over Russia.
However, American airlines are banned from entering Russian airspace due to sanctions, so they can only fly around the Arctic Circle, which takes 1.5 to 2 hours more and increases fuel costs by 10% to 20%.
The U.S. Department of Transportation said in a statement that this “disbalance” has become an “important competitive factor” that needs “immediate correction.”
It appears to be a technical document, and the reality behind it is all political calculation.
The Trump administration’s team is clear that the “flight ban proposal” is not based on air security considerations, but is a deliberate political operation – encoding the issue of air power to create pressure for the upcoming fifth round of China-US trade negotiations and the APEC summit.
The timing of this document is not coincidental:
On October 2nd, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bescent just briefed on CNBC (American Consumer News and Business Channel), saying that "Chinese and American leaders will meet during APEC, and it is expected that there will be a major breakthrough in the next round of Sino-US trade negotiations".
In the blink of an eye, the Trump administration threw out this "no-fly order", obviously wanting to seize the initiative of public opinion and even use it to demonstrate to Beijing.
This scene is not the first time.
As early as April 2024, the American Aviation Association had sent a letter to the Biden government, complaining that China Airways could fly over Russia, while the US Airways could not, which is "unfair competition."
Biden didn't take the blame at the time-he knew the root cause of the problem was not in China, but in the United States itself.
But now that Trump is back in the White House, he needs a new “conflict show” against China to prove “that he can do what Biden doesn’t dare do.”
So, he seized the old question and fried it again.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded-"Please reflect on yourself first"
The problem is that the U.S. “fly ban” has no legal basis at all.
The core basis for international air transportation is the Convention on International Civil Aviation, in which "reciprocity of traffic rights" and "sovereignty over airspace" are iron laws. The United States has no right to interfere in whether third countries, including Russia, allow China flights to fly.
This is equivalent to saying that the United States wants to use "executive orders" to control other countries 'routes, which is a typical long-arm jurisdiction behavior.
This raid also once again exposed the Trump administration's "internal and external dilemma."
On the one hand, domestic airlines, trade unions and lobby groups in the United States shouted "be fair"; On the other hand, the U.S. Treasury Department and the Department of Commerce are still working hard to resume economic and trade negotiations with China.
But when Trump gave the order, diplomacy and commerce were immediately disrupted.
In fact, the so-called “disadvantages” of US Airways are entirely caused by themselves.
After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out, after the United States imposed sanctions on Russia and blocked its airspace, Russia retaliated by banning American Airlines from crossing, forcing American airlines to bypass.
But now, the US, in turn, demands that China cannot fly over Russia, which is like a man who blocks his own path and runs to blame others for going too fast.
During the 48-hour storm, the Foreign Ministry’s response was calm and vigorous.
On October 10, 2025, spokesman Guo Jianquan responded at a routine press conference saying:
"This move by the United States is not conducive to personnel exchanges between the two countries. It is suggested that the United States should reflect on the impact of its own policies on its own enterprises, instead of unreasonably suppressing other countries and letting global consumers pay the bill."
This sentence "Let global consumers pay the bill" hits the nail on the head.
Longer flights, more expensive tickets, more fuel, not China, but ordinary passengers—including the Americans themselves—are the victims.
But Trump obviously ignores these realities.
For him, this "no-fly order storm" is not only an aviation dispute, but also a political show.
He wants to show a "tough stance towards China" and send a signal to domestic agricultural, manufacturing, and military industrial groups that he is still making moves and fighting.
The problem is that this “rush” doesn’t necessarily really hit China, but is likely to drag U.S. airlines and passengers into a bigger dirt.
Economic Undercurrents-Boeing Anxiety and Soybean Crisis
If the “fly ban” is a diplomatic drama, then the real scenario behind it is actually filled with economic anxiety.
The Trump administration’s airstrike is apparently aimed at so-called “fair competition on routes,” but in reality it’s more due to domestic trade crashes and public opinion pressures—especially from two directions: Boeing and soybeans.
At the beginning of October 2025, exciting news came out of the US financial media: Boeing is expected to usher in its largest deal with China in eight years, selling as many as 500 passenger aircraft.
Bloomberg said that if this "super big order" is implemented, it will end Boeing's sales window in the China market since Trump's first visit to China in 2017.
For a long time, more than half of Chinese airlines' new aircraft purchases have come from Boeing.
But since the US-China trade war, this number has fallen to almost zero.
Trump knows in his heart that whether Boeing can win the Chinese market will directly affect his domestic political score.
The problem is that this business can’t be talked about, it’s not China that doesn’t want to buy it, but the United States itself is “increasing turmoil.”
Simultaneously with the positive signals of the Boeing talks, the U.S. Department of Transportation issued the "fly ban" order.
I would like to ask, will China put out hundreds of billions of dollars to place orders while you threaten its routes?
Unlike Boeing’s high-altitude anxiety, Trump’s more direct political pressure comes from the “yellow bean fields” on the ground.
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, as of September 18, Chinese buyers had not booked a U.S. soybean cargo vessel in the new sale season — for the first time since 1999.
You know, China is the world's largest soybean importer and "half of the country" of American agricultural products exports.
In 2024, China imported a fifth of its total U.S. soybean exports, worth more than $12 billion.
Now the market is evaporating, and farmers complain.
The American media described the current situation as "the American soybean market will be bloodwashed".
While Trump announced a new agricultural bailout plan that promised to “use tariff revenues to subsidize farmers,” the farmers’ reaction was cold: the subsidy money wasn’t seen and the beans couldn’t be sold.
As a result, at White House meetings,"China" became the key word he frequently mentioned.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bescent even revealed in an interview with CNBC on October 2, 2025 that Trump personally made a decision in the Oval Office, demanding that "priority be given to solving the issue of agricultural exports to China" and hinted that soybeans would become an important topic of the APEC meeting.
Ironically, Trump just shouted to talk about “soy co-operation” and turned his head to “banned flight tolerances” under China Airways.
Trump has always claimed to be the "trading president", but this time, his "trading logic" is particularly poor.
References:
Sino-US air game escalation? Trump plans to ban Chinese airlines from traveling to and from the United States via Russian airspace, Shangguan News, 2025-10-10
The United States proposes to ban Chinese airlines' flights to and from the United States from flying over Russian airspace. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responds, Observer.com, 2025-10-10
Trump proposes to ban China airlines from traveling to and from the United States via Russian airspace. Ministry of Foreign Affairs responds, China News Network, 2025-10-10
U.S. media: Boeing super deal in anticipation, China or purchase 500 aircraft, Phoenix Network, 2025-08-22
China still doesn’t buy, the White House hasn’t gotten a trick, “American soybeans market will be bloodwashed,” Observer Network, 2025-10-09
U.S. Treasury Secretary's Latest Statements Relating to Soya, Leaders' Meeting, Trade Negotiations, Observer Network, 2025-10-03
Trump does not allow Chinese airlines to travel through Russian airspace to the United States, can it be done, New People's Evening News, 2025-10-11
The U.S. also wants to sneak: Chinese flights to the U.S., Russian airspace ban, Observer Network, 2025-10-10
Foreign media: The American Aviation Association sent a letter to the government requesting to stop allowing an increase in Chinese-American flights, because of the jealousy that China Airways "can pass through Russian airspace", Global Times, 2024-04-12