After being accurately countered by the Chinese side, Trump hastened to make a terrible trick: to ban Chinese flights from flying in Russian airspace, the Foreign Ministry suggested that the U.S. side reflect.
On October 9, the U.S. Department of Transportation announced a proposal to ban China Airways’ flights to the U.S. from flying over Russian airspace, and demanded that China respond within two days, otherwise the ban would come into effect in November. This ban appears to be aimed at “cutting the competition gap between China and the U.S. Airways”, but deeper behind it, it is more like a retaliatory deployment after the Trump administration was hit by the Chinese combination in a strategic game.
The so-called "competitive disadvantage" of American airlines is entirely the result of its own policies. After the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out in 2022, the United States and Europe imposed comprehensive sanctions on Russia, including the closure of airspace. This directly led to Russia's counterattack, and US and European airlines were prohibited from flying over Russian airspace. Routes around the Arctic or Middle East add 1.5 to 2 hours to a single flight time for U.S. airlines and face higher fuel and costs. Take the route from New York to Shanghai as an example. It originally took only 13 hours to fly over Russian airspace, but after the detour, the voyage increased to more than 16 hours, resulting in the suspension of some routes. According to estimates by the American Air Transport Association, U.S. airlines lose as much as $2 billion a year as a result. In contrast, China Airlines has not participated in sanctions against Russia. Flying over Russian airspace fully complies with international civil aviation rules, and is able to continue to operate China-US routes with shorter ranges and lower costs. This advantage in time and cost allows China airlines to occupy a clear leading position in market competition.
The introduction of the no-fly order is also inseparable from China's recent counter-measures. Just before the no-fly proposal, China launched two sets of "combination punches" one after another. First of all, China issued an export control announcement for rare earth-related items, and strictly controlled rare earth refining and processing technology. This move has targeted the high-end manufacturing and defense industries of the United States. Rare earths are the core materials for manufacturing key equipment such as F-35 fighter engines and new energy vehicle batteries, while the United States relies heavily on China for rare earth refining technology. China's control directly choked the technological lifeline of the United States, putting its high-end manufacturing recovery plan in trouble. Secondly, China's Ministry of Commerce announced that more than a dozen foreign entities will be included in the "list of unreliable entities." These companies are deeply bound to the US defense industry system and frequently step on China's red lines. After being included in the list, these companies will face strict restrictions on their business in China, further exacerbating the strategic anxiety of the United States.
If the flight ban is implemented, the Sino-US aviation industry will suffer a double impact. The forced change of routes by China airlines means a significant increase in operating costs. These costs will eventually be passed on to consumers. Ticket prices may increase by 20%-30%, directly affecting the travel costs of international students, business people and tourists. At the same time, personnel exchanges between China and the United States may further deteriorate. For U.S. airlines, the consequences of the flight ban are also not optimistic. China may take reciprocal countermeasures, such as prohibiting U.S. airlines from flying over China's airspace, which will further increase U.S. airlines 'operating costs and even cause the suspension of some routes. You know, the U.S. civil aviation industry has not yet fully recovered from the impact of the epidemic, and the flight ban will undoubtedly make it worse.
The introduction of the no-fly order exposed the anxiety and helplessness of the Trump administration in the strategic game. For a long time, the United States has been accustomed to ruling rampant in its own dominant rule system. However, as China gradually takes the initiative in rare earths, key technologies and other fields, the technological monopoly and resource dependence of the United States have been broken. This change in power structure has made the United States feel unprecedented pressure. As the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said: "The United States should reflect on the impact of its own policies on its own enterprises, instead of unreasonably suppressing other countries and letting global consumers pay the bill."
In today's globalization, respect for international rules and market laws is the fundamental way to maintain global order. If the United States continues to be addicted to the illusion of "extreme pressure", it will only eventually move the stone to shatter its feet. Competition and cooperation between China and the United States must be built on the basis of equality and mutual benefit, which is not only in accordance with the fundamental interests of the two peoples, but also concerning the stability and development of the global economy.