Speaking of which, there are always people in the world comparing China to the Soviet Union at that time, saying that the United States disintegrated the Soviet Union back then. Is it going to do the same to China now? This topic has become a hoot in recent years, especially when Sino-US relations are becoming increasingly tense.
Many people think that China's economy is so fierce and its population is large. Will the United States repeat its old tricks and drag China down with economic sanctions and arms race?
However, former Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong gave a quite straightforward view at an international conference in 2021. He said that China would not follow the old path of the Soviet Union. This sounds quite reasonable and needs to be discussed in detail.
Let's talk about why the Soviet Union collapsed first. That was in the last century. The Cold War began with Truman Doctrine in 1947, and the United States pursued a containment policy to contain the Soviet Union. During the Berlin Crisis in 1948, the Soviet Union blocked West Berlin, and the United States airdropped supplies, which lasted for almost a year. In the arms race of the 1950s, the United States tested a hydrogen bomb in 1952, and the Soviet Union followed suit in 1953.
The 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, almost fought, Kennedy and Khrushchev negotiations only settled. The 1970s eased, Nixon visited China in 1972 to push China to resist the Soviet Union, and also signed a strategic weapons restriction agreement. But in the 1980s Reagan came to power, pushing the Star Wars plan, the Soviet economy could not withstand.
The Soviet Union was a planned economy, heavy industry strong, but agriculture and consumer goods were weak, oil prices fell in foreign exchange shortages. Inside, 15 republics joined, more national contradictions, the Baltic countries at the end of the 1980s were independent, the Berlin Wall fell in 1989 and the Soviet Union disintegrated on December 25, 1991.
China is completely different from this. You see, China started with reform and opening up in 1978, and its economy has grown rapidly. It is now the world's second largest economy, with a GDP exceeding 18 trillion US dollars and a per capita income of tens of thousands. The Soviet Union is closed and China is open. After joining the WTO, trade volume has soared, and the total trade volume in 2023 will exceed US$6 trillion.
The Soviet Union relied on heavy industry, while China had complete industries, including high technology and new energy. Take new energy vehicles as an example. In 2023, China will produce and sell more than 9 million vehicles and export 1.2 million vehicles, making it the world's largest automobile exporter. BYD's brands are sold to Europe and Southeast Asia, accounting for a large share. The Soviet economy is imperative and inefficient, while China is market-oriented and government-planned, and its innovation patents rank first in the world.
The Soviet Union was built up by multiple republics, with many internal cracks and a lot of ethnic and religious problems. The United States took advantage of loopholes to divide it. China is a unified multi-ethnic country with a long history, deep culture, and a strong sense of identity among the people with the country.
56 nations, centrally coordinated policies, infrastructure such as high-speed railways, the Three Strait Dam, covered the country. The Soviet Union in the late 1980s economic recession, high inflation, people in line to buy bread. China's GDP in 2023 grew by 5.2%, stock markets are active, consumption stable. The Soviet Union closed, China attracted foreign investment, foreign enterprises factories are everywhere.
The United States 'strategy towards the Soviet Union was to contain and compete, dragging the Soviet Union into an arms whirlpool. As for China, you have me in the Sino-US economy, and you have me. China is the world's factory, the United States is the world market, and bilateral trade will exceed US$600 billion in 2021. decoupling? That would mean both sides would suffer, American corporate costs would rise, China would adjust exports, but global supply chains would be in chaos.
Li Xianlong said that the United States wants to use the Chinese neck with the old suite, and must first measure itself.In the Soviet Union, the United States was the only superpower, and now China's economy is large, and technology has followed.The Soviet Union has not integrated into the global economy, China is a major player in globalization, and the Belt and Road project spreads across Africa and Asia.
Li Xianlong's point of view is not empty, he analyzes the benefits of cooperation and avoids zero-sum games. After his speech in 2021, China-US relations are still tense, but there is dialogue.
In fact, think of the end of the Cold War as the world changed, and China’s rise as a reshaping pattern. The Soviet heritage is arms ruins, China invests in infrastructure, high-speed rail expansion, and electric cars run full streets.
Before the collapse of the Soviet Union, ethnic conflicts were frequent, China's internal policy was coordinated, the people's hall met for voting. The Soviet oil price fell in foreign exchange shortages, China's patents were more, laboratories were busy. US-Soviet confrontation, American culture exports, Chinese Confucius Academy taught Chinese. Soviet youth hiddenly watched Hollywood, Chinese culture exports globally.
On the other hand, the American strategy worked for the Soviet Union, because the Soviet Union had many weaknesses. China is different, with strong stability and global economy. The Soviet Union is the suture monster, and China is the whole. The Soviet economy relied on energy, and China diversified. The Soviet Union was closed and China was open. Internal contradictions in the Soviet Union, the United States took advantage of the opportunity, and China had strong cohesion. Lee Hsien Loong said that China will not collapse, based on these facts.
Of course, the Chinese-American game is still going on. U.S. technology restrictions, China's self-research chip. The trade war began with Trump in 2018, and Biden continued. But China's new energy vehicle exports grew, proving resilience. During the Soviet Union, the U.S. pulled allies, and China now has partners, working along the way. The Soviet disintegration marked the end of the Cold War, and China's rise was new.
Lee Hsien Loong's words were quite pertinent. The United States must adapt to the strength of China. China's development focuses on reform and opening up, and the Soviet model is rigid. China has a unified structure and the Soviet Union is loose. China has a high degree of economic integration and the Soviet Union is isolated. The Soviet Union's GDP declined, and China's growth was stable. China strongly recognizes the Soviet ethnic issue. The Soviet Union's armaments were exhausted and China developed in a balanced manner.
After Lee Hsien Loong stepped down, Singapore continued to balance China and the United States. Huang Xuncai took over and the policy continued. China will not become the next Soviet Union because the path is different. The Soviet Union is a historical lesson, and China is a real case. The international situation has changed, and cooperation is better than confrontation. If China and the United States unite, both will benefit, but if they fight, both will suffer. Global challenges such as climate change require joint efforts.
China is stable, strong economically, and deeply integrated, and will not be like the Soviet Union.The collapse of the Soviet Union is a product of a particular era, and the rise of China is a new model.