«--[· Preface ·]--»
In the past 48 hours, the Sino-US trade war escalated again. China refused to back down, but Trump used his last move. In response, U.S. trade officials said that 300 million Americans are ready and ready to fight with China to the end! What the hell is going on?
«--[· China attacks with two fists ·]--»
In the past 48 hours, the smell of gunpowder in the Sino-US trade war has made people unable to open their eyes. There is no ambiguity on China's side, and it directly shows two hard guys.
China's Ministry of Commerce first launched a series of announcements, including 7 categories of medium-heavy and rare-earth related objects and supporting production technologies in the export control list. This is not a simple export restriction, from the original mine to the deep-processed products, to the core process behind, the entire chain is locked to death.
You should know that controlled rare earths such as dysprosium and yttrium are necessities for U.S. military weapons manufacturing. However, no company in the United States has yet completed the refining and processing of these seven types of rare earths, and the relevant reserves are only enough to support military production for several months.
Immediately afterwards, the countermeasures of China's Ministry of Communications landed. The department officially announced on October 10 that special port fees will be charged on all U.S.-related ships from October 14. The charging standard is quite important: in the first stage, 400 yuan per net ton will be charged, and it will be increased year by year in the future, and will rise to 1,120 yuan per net ton by 2028.
As long as an American company owns, operates, or holds more than 25% of a ship, even a ship built in the United States, it must pay the money obediently. The Ministry of Communications made it clear that this is a legitimate response to the United States earlier suppression of China's shipping industry. These two sets of combination punches directly stirred up a pool of spring water in global trade.
“Trump is in a hurry...”
China's hard-gas operation directly shocked former U.S. President Trump. On October 10, local time, Trump faced iron in public events. He repeatedly stressed on the screen that China's recent move is incredible.
While cursing, Trump turned hands and used the so-called "last move." He announced an additional 100% tariff on China goods starting from November 1. Including the 30% already levied, the U.S. tariffs on China have soared directly to a historical high of 130%. With this heavy hammer, the global trading circle exploded.
What is even more intriguing is the statement made by US trade officials. Shortly after Trump made the remarks, the official publicly declared that 300 million Americans were ready to fight China to the end at any time. These words sounded tough, but did not mention what the people are prepared to endure.
After all, Mario Cordero, CEO of Long Beach Port, California, USA, has warned that the tariff increase will bring a devastating blow to the shipping industry. The port's inbound freight volume next week is expected to plummet by more than 35% compared with the same period last year, in sharp contrast to the busy scene of Shanghai Port.
«--[·300 million people are "ready"?·]--»
The people who U.S. officials call "ready" have long complained. Public opinion data is most telling. In early April, American people's opposition to tariffs has soared to 80%, 15 percentage points higher than in February.
China was once the largest buyer of soybeans in the United States, and in 2024 51.7% of US soybeans exports were sold to China. After the trade war escalated, China's purchases dropped, turning to large imports from Brazil and Argentina. Farmers in Wisconsin hurried to jump, even if Trump promised subsidies, also faced with legal and budget restrictions, with a single payment ceiling of $3.5 billion, not enough to fill the gap.
Manufacturing is having a harder time. Telbister, the owner of a craft brewery in Wisconsin, revealed that tariffs caused his production cost to skyrocket by 40%, forcing him to lay off 20 employees, and finally failed to keep the factory. What's worse is that American families' dependence on Chinese goods is deeply rooted in the bone marrow. More than 95% of daily necessities such as toasters and umbrellas come from China. Once the supply is cut off, the American people will have to rush to buy even daily necessities.
The economic data is even colder. In the first quarter of 2025, U.S. GDP shrank by 0.3% month-on-month, the first decline in the past two years. U.S. stocks have also followed suit. Trump can only temporarily recover the stock market by frequently releasing news of "Sino-US negotiations."
In this trade war, China's bottom line is not hidden. In the face of US tariff pressure, Chinese enterprises have long opened up a new way out. In the first half of 2025, Africa's exports grew by 34%, and Brazil's agricultural trade has also expanded significantly. By expanding the "global south" market, China has not only compensated for the loss of the US market, but the annual trade surplus is also expected to break $ 1.2 trillion, making a record high.
In contrast to the United States, there has long been no surface hardness. International economic and trade negotiation experts pointed out that the United States frequently releases negotiating signals, and actually exposes the mindset of a rush to breakup. The Trump team in the last 10 days, at least 11 times mentioned "in contact with China", but the Chinese attitude is very clear: to talk can, first cancel all unilateral tariffs.
The difficult situation of the United States is clear and clear. on the one hand, want to rely on high tariffs to force China to make concessions, on the other hand, the domestic economy can not bear, the resentment of enterprises and the people can not be squeezed. more embarrassingly, the United States wants to join Japan and South Korea to put pressure, as a result, the Japanese prime minister directly spoke "not ready to make major concessions", South Korea also made clear that before the election could not reach an agreement.
“ ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ”
The current situation is clear. China's countermeasures are accurately hit in the US side, the rare earth is stuck in the military industry, the port charges stamp in the shipping pain point. Trump's 130% tariffs are more like a single bet, the US trade officials' "people are ready" is only self-deceiving. In this game, who is really carrying, who is hard-holding, is clearly known.