One wave, one wave again!
Just as the Palestinian-Israeli conflict presses the pause button and the situation in the Middle East is showing signs of easing, the protracted Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to escalate. While Russia and Ukraine are engaged in fierce confrontation, the game and contest between Russia, the United States and the West are also intensifying.
At the critical moment, three things worthy of attention happened in the situation between Russia and Ukraine.
The first thing is that there is a strong smell of gunpowder! The 14 NATO countries joined forces to "shine a sword" at Russia.
On the 11th, NATO announced that it would hold a meeting codenamed " Annual Nuclear Exercises at Solid MidnightThe host country is the Netherlands, with a total of 14 NATO countries participating, using 71 different types of fighter jets, and in addition to the Dutch base, the British Air Force base in Lake Heath and the Danish Skytrap will also participate in the exercise.
NATO emphasized that although the exercise It will not use nuclear weapons, but will simulate the scenario of “possible use of nuclear weapons.”This will prove to potential opponents that NATO's nuclear deterrent is still safe, reliable and effective, and at the same time demonstrate that NATO has the ability to protect allies from all threats.
However, paradoxically, NATO shows its sword to "potential opponents" on one hand, but on the other hand, it emphasizes this exercise “It is not targeted at any country, nor has it anything to do with real international events.”
It is not difficult to see, NATO's intention is well known to all, and aims to send a nuclear deterrent signal to Russia.
It should be noted that, Although it is said to be NATO's annual nuclear exercise, the "solid midday" exercise will begin in 2022.This is after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the deterioration of relations between NATO and Russia, and the United States. The principles of "no first use of nuclear weapons" and "only use to counter nuclear attacks" have been abandoned, and the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons has been greatly loweredAt the same time, the risk of a nuclear arms race and nuclear conflict has increased.
In this context, NATO’s large-scale nuclear exercises for three consecutive years, in addition to highlighting the West’s beginning to value nuclear deterrence, have further aggravated the risk of a conflict between Russia and NATO.
In addition, the British Ministry of Defence confirmed: Two British fighter jets, along with U.S. and NATO forces, conducted a 12-hour cruise mission in the Russian border area.It is said to be an ally of Britain and NATO. "Major Joint Mission".
On the 10th, the British media also revealed that NATO was considering firing on Russian aircraft that "illegally broke into NATO airspace". Judging from the previous violation of Polish airspace, it is obvious that NATO is still putting pressure on Russia and has already released a fire signal.
It can be seen that while the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has not yet subsided, not only is the battlefield situation escalating, but the risk of conflict between Russia and the West is also continuing to rise.
However, just as relations between Russia and the West escalated, US-Russian relations suddenly experienced a major turning point.
Second thing, a change of attitude? Trump publicly thanked Putin.
During the meeting of the leaders of the CIS countries, Publicly praise and recognize Trump's diplomatic efforts to resolve the Russian-Ukrainian conflictAfter Trump learned the news, he sent a letter. “Thank you, President Putin!”
It is that it has been the last month, Trump and Putin "The most active interaction from a distance"The last time was at the summit of the US-Russian president in Alaska, the two sides affectionately interacted, but after the summit, Trump's attitude toward Russia repeatedly changed, not to make "paper tiger" remarks, but to threaten to put pressure on Russia, and recently released a signal that it could provide Ukraine with "strike axis" missiles, making US-Russian relations highly tense.
Now, Putin publicly acknowledges Trump’s “diplomatic efforts” and Trump actively sends a letter of thanks to Putin, which seems to be one of the signs that U.S.-Russian relations are beginning to relax.
In addition to, It was not just a coincidence, it was also an arrangement.
On the 11th, the White House announced a message saying that US First Lady Melania recently received a reply from Putin,He also said that his team and Putin's team had already "Resolving the problem of children affected by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict" established a communication mechanism, in the past 24 hours, eight children have been successfully reunited with their families.
It can be seen that the White House is constantly releasing signals of mitigation with Russia at this time, it seems to be why the "big move" is laid, not excluding whether Trump is preparing to visit Russia, or to make a call with Putin again, or whether the Russian-Ukrainian peace process is expected to break the "stagnation".
In short, the direction of US-Russian relations has always been a key factor affecting the situation in Russia and Ukraine, after all, the United States is the dominant country in NATO and also the main country in Ukraine, and the attitude and position of the United States will also affect the extent of Western intervention in the situation in Russia and Ukraine.
As for whether Trump will bring the situation to Russia and Ukraine after publicly thanking Putin, everything remains a static follow-up.
However, just as U.S.-Russia relations continue to change, Ukraine has also ushered in mixed news.
Third thing, Trump “is about to make a decision,” Ukraine may be right?
On the 10th, Trump publicly responded to the supply of Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine, saying that he had "Almost a decision has been made"But before making a decision, He must know how Ukraine will use these missiles and where they will be sent.He will ask Ukraine some questions. I do not want to see an escalation of the situation.
At present, what exactly is Trump’s “decision” is unknown to the outside world.On the 11th, Ukraine said it was still negotiating with the US on the supply of “Tax” missiles.
Obviously, from the point of view of Trump's statement that he "does not want to see the situation escalate in Russia and Ukraine", the United States It seems unlikely that the country will provide Ukraine with the "Tomahawk". Even if it does provide Ukraine with the "Tomahawk", it is unlikely that it will be allowed to use the missile to hit targets in Russia.
Therefore, it is still unknown whether Ukraine will get what it wants or whether it will be a vain joy.
Furthermore, it should not be overlooked that the United States provided Ukraine with "tacks" missiles, which were not given directly, Instead, it would be sold to NATO member states and then handed over to Ukraine by NATO countries.
In other words, this move by the United States It's not free,And through this "third-party change-of-hands" method, the responsibility arising from providing Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine is reduced, or the responsibility is spread to the entire NATO. By then, even if Russia wants to make this matter difficult, it will not only focus on the United States, but on NATO.
Putin also issued a warning: If the U.S. supplies Ukraine with "war-ax" missiles, it will cause relations between the United States and Russia to break.
So what exactly will be the decision, Trump really has to think well.
The mountain rains want to come full of wind.Next, and see how the situation develops.