This drama in Japanese politics is more magical than any palace battle drama or commercial war film you have ever seen.
The protagonist, High Market Morning, kills out of the surroundings and sits on the throne of the president. According to the script of the last few decades, this is basically equivalent to locking the position of the Japanese prime minister in advance.
She and her team, estimating that the champagne of the celebration was frozen, waited for a passage and officially took office.
The result? the distance from the prime minister is only the last few days, she can't imagine how, behind the back was stunned.
Takashi's dream of being a prime minister is about to be shattered at the beginning.
On the afternoon of October 10, the new chairman of the self-government party, Cao市早苗, spoke for an hour and a half with the leader of the party, Ziyu Tifov.
As soon as people left, Saito announced to the media: Komeito Party, I won't play with you anymore, and we will withdraw from the coalition!
The subtitle is: The way is different, not the same. this thief ship, we are not on!
With a loud noise, the old signboard of "self-government alliance" that had begun in 1999 was shattered on the ground.
To put it bluntly, it's like a company. The major shareholder has just changed the CEO through internal struggle, and is preparing to hold a plenary meeting to announce new personnel appointments.
As a result, the two shareholders, who have been silently supported for years, suddenly stood up and said: Sorry, I want to withdraw, and I will also join the barbarians outside to kill your new CEO.
Magic or not? Is it exciting?
Let’s start by calculating a bill and see how important this is on a technical level.
The House of Representatives has a total of 465 seats, and if you want to be Prime Minister, you need to get more than half of the votes, or 233 votes.
Takaichi sanae's Liberal Democratic Party, plus the "old couple" of Komeito Party, got together with 220 votes in their hands.
Although it is still a little short of the absolute holding line of 233 votes, the gap is not big. Just find a few independent members or small parties to blend and send some benefits, and this matter will basically be done.
But now, the alliance is broken.
The public party not only did not vote, but also ran with tickets.
The ticket in the hands of the high-ranking prime minister, instantly from the majority of 220 votes, fell to the 196 votes of the self-government party itself.
This time, it changed from a "one-stop" gap of 13 votes to a "abyss" gap of 37 votes.
District 37 votes, now becoming an unbeaten sky in front of her.
For Gaoshi, this was a bolt from the blue.
She is doing a beautiful dream, waiting for the 15th Congressional election to be successful and officially climb.
Now, for more than twenty years, the iron boys suddenly jumped back and drowned her in the air.
How to play without allies?
The self-government party is the largest party in Japan, but it has only 196 seats in the House of Representatives.
Half the line is about eight thousand miles away.
Over the past twenty years, the self-government party has been able to stabilize in Jiangshan, relying on the 24 tickets in the hands of the public party.
Now that these 24 votes are gone, Gao Shi cannot even gather the most basic threshold for becoming prime minister.
In turn, look at the opponent, the Japanese Conservative Party, those in the opposition combined, enough to have 210 seats, right-handedly.
Why twenty-six years old friends?
For more than twenty years, why do you look like your enemy and turn your face?
The obvious reason is that the issue of political donation regulation is not discussed.
Zidane spoke very straightforwardly, the public party demanded strict control, but the self-government party's plan "is not honest enough".
Under the iceberg, there were explosives that had been buried long ago.
At the party leaders 'talks at the beginning of the month, the Komeito Party raised three major problems:
Political funding, historical issues (especially Buddha) and exclusive immigration policies.
These questions, the counterpoint directed to the high market early苗 himself: you this person, the political line is too right!
Behind the Communist Party is the Creation Society, a huge religious group whose believers are innately opposed to extreme nationalism.
But what about Gaoshi?
A proper conservative hawk, a man with right-wing ideas engraved on his forehead. Advocating constitutional amendment, military expansion and visiting the Yasukuni Shrine has never been a good face to China and South Korea.
Her political idol is Abe. her political program is more Abe than Abe.
Denying the history of aggression is commonplace; Visiting the Yasukuni Shrine is a prescribed action; Advocating that "something happens to Taiwan Province means something happens to Japan" is her traffic password.
It was with this ultra-conservative "Wolf Warriors" posture that she won the support of the old guys in the Liberal Democratic Party and finally sat on the throne of president.
All this, precisely, stepped on the red line of the Communist Party.
You said, let such a "Buddhist" political party go to the platform of a "Wolf Warriors" Prime Minister who shouts and kills every day. Is this schizophrenic or not?
Therefore, when the high-market early-size was elected, even if she hypocritically converged some, saying something "willing to talk with the Chinese side", also released the rumor that the autumn did not go to "pray the ghosts", but the public party is rooted in unbelief.
Because they know, this is all pretended. a person's underlying code, is not changed.
So, this time, take the "political donation" talk, but just find a head-on, to a long-conspirated warning.
The city knows how serious things are.
Now the ball has kicked back to the high market early.
She faces two roads, one more difficult than one.
The first way is to form new alliances with other opposition parties. But this is basically seeking skin from a tiger.
Her eyes fell on the National Democratic Party and the Japan Conservative Society.
The National Democratic Party has 27 seats, three more seats than the Komeito Party. The Reform Association holds 38 seats.
These two houses can solve the burning of the high market.
If it were possible to bring the Victorian Assembly, the ruling coalition would even be more than half alone.
Takaichi has already met Yuichiro Tamaki, the leader of the National Democratic Party, and they have a common language on economic policies.
Yotomu Yoshimura of the Reform Association also relaxed, saying that although he had other candidates in mind, the parties could talk about cooperation.
But "new love" is not so easy to find.
If you want others to follow you, you have to take out some real money, right?
How many seats are there for cabinet ministers? Do you listen to other people's policies?
Vichy will want to turn Osaka into Osaka city, you can't do it?
Even more fatal is that the public party can bring real votes to the self-government party, and dozens of self-government parliamentarians rely on it to support.
Did the new allies get it?
The second way is to bet.
It is a bet that the opposition parties will not push a unified candidate against her.
In this way, when Congress votes, the first round of votes is less than half, and enters the second round of confrontation.
In the second round, the rules changed, whoever won more votes won.The self-government party is the first major party, maybe there is still a line of life.
For the high market, this is simply a big deal.
The first difficulty is to stabilize the Liberal Democratic Party.
The party is not monolithic. The Abe faction, Aso faction, and Moogi faction all have evil intentions.
Many big guys are not cold about her title as the “first female prime minister.”
The second difficulty is to persuade the Communist Party to return to the "predecessor". after all, more than twenty years of "matrimony", Mucci and the foundation are not new people can compare.
The third difficulty is to find a spare tire.
Three things have to be done at the same time. If any link is broken, everything may be lost.
Time waits for no one yet. After October 26, a series of diplomatic tests awaited her at the ASEAN meeting, meeting with US President Trump, and APEC summit.
At that time, if Japan can't even decide on a prime minister, this face will be lost internationally.
But the real test comes precisely after the election.
A prime minister without a stable ruling coalition is like a bare commander.
Any policy can be in the shell of Congress, and at any time there is the risk of being ousted.
Takashi Saami thought that he was getting a ticket to the Prime Minister's Office, but when he looked carefully, it was a one-way ticket to the political cliff. Even if Takashi Saami finally gets to the top through some political calculation, her path to prime minister is destined to be shocking step by step. Her term of office is likely to be shorter than that of previous prime ministers.
Source: There are faces