Trump has again handed out on China, this time with 100% tariffs, sounds scary, and has actually gone poor.
According to a report by the World Wide Web on October 11, Trump posted multiple posts on social media, announcing that starting from November 1, the United States will impose an additional 100% tariff on all China imports, and at the same time implement export controls on "all critical software" on China.
As soon as the news came out, the U.S. stock market plummeted, setting its worst single-day performance since the "tariff war" in April.
People just understand what happened in these days, and they will understand that Trump’s seemingly brutal move, in fact, has the smell of a little panic.
Why is Trump so anxious? Because just two days ago, China quietly hit three heavy punches, which hit the flesh.
The first punch occurred on October 9th, when China's Ministry of Commerce issued a seemingly ordinary announcement about the implementation of export controls on overseas related rare earth items.
This legal document-like announcement is as powerful as a strategic nuclear weapon in the economic community. It stipulates that not only China's rare earth exports must be controlled, but also products produced abroad using China's rare earth technology, as well as overseas manufactured products containing China's rare earth components, all require China's export licenses.
Isn’t Trump looking for rare-earth supplies in other countries to replace China?
Sorry, as long as your product contains even 0.1% of key rare earth items from China, or uses China's rare earth technology, this supply chain will still be in the hands of China.
The announcement specifically pointed out that export applications for military purposes, high-end chips and military artificial intelligence will not be allowed in principle, which accurately stuck the neck of the U.S. high-end manufacturing and defense industry.
Second, the Chinese Ministry of Transportation announced that it would charge additional stop-off fees for U.S. ships from October 14 as a reciprocal counterpart to U.S. charges for Chinese ships in the same period.
It's a sign: you hit yours, I hit mine, and every punch will be returned.
Third, on October 9, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce will include 14 foreign entities, including the US anti-drone technology company, on the "unreliable entity list."
The reason is that they "ignore China's strong opposition", carry out military and technical cooperation with Taiwan authorities and assist foreign governments in suppressing Chinese enterprises.
This meant they were cut off from all trade and investment with China, and it is worth noting that the anti-drone company was the target of the U.S. military’s focus on providing anti-drone systems specifically to the U.S. government.
This knife was accurately inserted into a specific national defense strategic plan of the United States.
These three moves by China can be said to be fast and fierce. Therefore, when Trump complained on social media that "it is hard to believe that China would make such a move," people could almost feel the consternation behind his words.
He claims that China has sent letters to the world announcing that it will implement large-scale export controls on "almost all products" from November 1.
This is obviously a misunderstanding and exaggeration of the power of China's rare earth control policy, but this overreaction just exposed his anxiety. His 100% tariffs and software export controls are more like a stress response after being stimulated.
So, can this 100% tariff really scare China? History has given the answer once.
Four or five months ago, Trump had already launched a round of tariff war on China, but what was the result?
Chinese companies can gradually compensate for losses in the U.S. market by expanding to Asia, Europe and the “global south” markets.The WTO’s latest report also shows that global trade growth forecasts have been upgraded this year, with the main driving force coming from Asia.
The growth rate of South-South trade is far above the global average, and the world is no longer just an American market.
And what about America itself? The boomerang of unilateralism is flying back and hitting itself.
Farmers in the United States are once again victims of trade disputes. Although the Trump administration promised to subsidize them with tariff revenue, the subsidies he gave were simply a drop in the bucket.
Let's talk about software export controls. In the short term, software fields such as electronic design automation are undoubtedly the hardest hit areas. The United States wants to completely strangle China's high-end chip design capabilities.
This move is very poisonous, but one of the inevitable results it brings is that it will greatly accelerate the process of China's independent research and development of electronic design automation and other software.
Short-term pain is inevitable, but in the long run, this is only another story of self-innovation in the field of "card neck".
So, after understanding all this, people will understand why China has seen the bottom line of Trump.
Trump’s bottom line is to impose high tariffs and tough sanctions, but today, in the context of globalization and multipolar development, the effectiveness of the card is declining sharply.
He expects China to retreat under extreme pressure, but China’s response is more accurate, deeper in the core of the supply chain.
Rare-earth control is aimed at the U.S. defense and high-tech industries; the list of unreliable entities demonstrates the ability to precisely strike and differentiate the rival alliance; the port cost reciprocity reflects the firm gesture of "tooth and tooth."
The game has long ceased to be a simple digital game of tariffs, but has become a complex battle around global supply chains, technical standards and international speech.
Trump did not expect that China's counterattack would be so systematic and rapid, directly targeting the fragile foundation of the supply chain replacement strategy he built. The ultimate loser in this trade war may have been doomed at the beginning.