This is Panda Beibei's 3421st original article

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Talk about the hot spot

From October 9 to October 10, 2025, a new round of shock waves began between China and the United States, the two major countries with a 12-hour difference.

However, this time, and the previous style, and the number of routes is completely different, and it can even be said that the offensive trend has been reversed.

This time, it was China who took the lead in taking action. Here is a detailed review for friends who don't know much about the ins and outs:

On October 9, the Ministry of Commerce of China issued a number of export control decisions, involving medium-sized rare earth, rare earth equipment and raw materials, ultra-hard materials, lithium batteries and artificial graphite negative materials related items to implement export control.

Of course, this is not an outcry on the Chinese side, but an official response based on a series of small actions made by the United States during the Chinese National Day holiday.

On October 7, the "Ad Hoc Committee on Strategic Competition between the United States and the Communist Party of China" issued "Nine Opinions" on sanctions against China semiconductors, which have been confirmed from the official website of the "Ad Hoc Committee."

Just as Trump is proud to upgrade China's comprehensive control over semiconductors, China has also taken a heavy move.

Comprehensively upgrade export controls on rare earths, and even blacklist many American companies.

This time, China's rare earth war was extremely "ruthless" and finally demonstrated the magnanimity that the Chinese Dynasty should have.

On the day after the Chinese announcement, Trump posted on his personal social platform Truth Social, threatening to implement a "large-scale tariff increase" on Chinese goods.

He claimed that if Beijing pushes for restrictions on rare-earth exports, the United States will.” Take the most severe economic countermeasures in historyThis statement quickly sparked the market’s reluctance.

--The Nasdaq index fell more than 2%, the S&P 500 index fell 1.6%, and the Dow Jones index fell more than 1%.

The content of Trump's tweet is currently controlled, and it is not posted here, in any case, this American president is definitely more agitated.

In the language of capital markets, this type of decline is not digital volatility, but the re-pricing of risk expectations.

In the past few months, Wall Street has been betting that the U.S.-China relationship will tend to relax, especially in the AI and new energy segments, where large amounts of institutional funding have been rearranged to overview related supply chain assets.

Trump’s remarks not only crushed this fragile optimism, but also revived investors’ memories of the cyclical shadow of the “tariff war” in 2018.

When it comes to making trouble in the United States, it is quite good at choosing time. It is either the National Day holiday or a non-trading rest day. This time, the incident is not small. The follow-up will not only have a continuous impact on the US stock market, but also have a continuous impact on China's domestic economic environment and financial market. It may also bring some inevitable impacts and impacts.

This article will be based on this round of game upgrading trends that suddenly erupted after China's October National Day holiday holiday, and will be detailed, combined with reality, on the impact that this round of game trends between China and the United States may have, and will be conducted in depth, attitude, and based on thematic discussion and analytical research.

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1 The state took the initiative and took the first long-arm jurisdiction in China's history, what exactly happened?

The move by the Ministry of Commerce this time is definitely the first long-arm jurisdiction in the history of China.

This control measure is basically in line with the long-arm jurisdiction of U.S. chips. For products that are not produced in China, as long as they contain rare earth materials from China or use China's rare earth mining, refining and processing technology, they are subject to export controls.

Take two for example:

A foreign company using China's technology to mine and process rare earths in Chile and then export them to the United States will be subject to control;

A foreign company that ships Chinese rare earths to South Korea, processes them into chips and then exports them to the United States will also be controlled.

Rare-earth industrial chains around the world are virtually non-existent without reliance on Chinese materials and technology.While only 70% of global rare-earth mining is in China, 90% of rare-earth separation processing and 93% of magnet production are controlled by China.

In other words, after the promulgation of the new rules, basically any company in the world supplying rare earth-related products to the United States can be banned by China.

This is not only "Cool, I can also", and the upper limit of the neck strength can be reached is far from comparable to the little bit of the past.

This means that from ASML (lithography machines require rare earths as magnets) to TSMC, China actually has a veto power over the entire Western advanced chip industry chain.

In the past, they sold our products into high-end A, mid-end B and low-end C. They banned our high-end A, and then sold mid-end B and low-end C.

When we can't build the low-end B and C, we can only supply them with rare earths, otherwise controlling them means controlling us.

But if B and C we do it, then why do we supply rare earth for them to make A, and in turn ban it on us?

The introduction of such control measures this time has shown a big killer move, and I believe that the backup must be ready.

U.S. stocks responded with a plunge that day: the S & P 500 index fell 2.7%, and the Nasdaq index fell 3.6%, the largest one-day decline since April. However, this "sudden attack" actually has a foreshadowing-the trade policy of the Trump 2.0 era has shown its fangs since the beginning of the year, pushing tariffs on China to 84% in April. This increase is just a total outbreak of contradictions.

Then Trump opened fire on social media, and could even say emotional out of control, saying something not so loud.

U.S. President Trump has threatened to significantly increase tariffs, making investors worry about worsening international trade tensions.

Then it triggered a sharp fall in major financial markets and asset sectors in Europe and the United States.

Because it's the weekend here in China, the impact and impact on the country have not officially arrived yet.

Things, that's such a thing. There are many related reports on the Internet, so I won't repeat them here.

2 Rare-earth control is only one side, why is this time that China and the United States around the trade game is a new round of escalation?

Judging from Trump's speech on social media, In Trump's view, this time it is China's "provocation" against the United States. He believes that the current Sino-US relations have a temporary "truce",The four rounds of negotiations between the two countries have already been talked about, and it is even possible to breakthrough in the fifth round of negotiations at the end of the month.

So Trump thinks China’s sanctions measures against the United States are a “extremely hostile” behavior, which will make the global trade market even harsher.

Being loud does not mean that it makes sense. This logic is perfect for the United States and Trump.

This time in the United States, it is a typical demonstration of the typical stealing chickens not to erode the rice, the thief shouted the thief was beaten.

The logic of China this time, is it really as Trump says?

China's Ministry of Transport said it would charge "special port charges" on U.S. ships from October 14, which is one of China's latest countermeasures against the United States.

As long as all merchant ships flying the American flag, registered with American citizenship, or made in the United States, call at Chinese ports, an additional entry fee will be charged. Why is it? Because this is a peer-to-peer counterattack.

It was Trump who first charged the "special service fee" on Chinese merchant ships, and China was only a self-defense counterattack, implementing reciprocal tariffs on the United States.

October 14th is also the day when the United States charges "port service fees" on Chinese ships. Moreover, our sanctions against the United States are the same as those imposed by the United States on China.

It is clear that China’s recent sanctions against the United States are “reciprocal sanctions” against the United States.

Trump is only allowed state officials to fire, not the people to light the lights.Where in the world can the United States sanction China, and China cannot sanction the United States?

This old boy is entirely moral in his mouth, all kinds of lies are straightforward, but his hands are not clean at all.

Let's take a direct look at what measures Trump has taken against China.

For example, on September 29, BIS, Bureau of Industry and Security of the U.S. Department of Commerce, included 29 entities including China in the "Entity List."

On September 30, the U.S. BIS included several Chinese companies on the entity list.

In addition, the U.S. has announced the “50% rule.”That is to say, a "situation system" will be applied to companies that are included in the "entity list".

The meaning of Trump's move is very simple, that is, to curb China's development in advanced technological fields such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence, and maintain the technological hegemony of the United States.

And what is its fundamental purpose? In fact, it is still for the Sino-US negotiations at the end of the month that we hope to gain greater leverage by sanctioning China before the negotiations, and then force China to negotiate.

What is the reaction of China? very simple, is the typical "one foot, one foot" logic:

After many rounds of confrontation, Trump's trick of imposing sanctions before Sino-US negotiations and then backing down during the negotiations has been seen through by China, which is why China imposed rare earth export controls on the United States after National Day.

China's "rare earth brand" is actually one of the "unequal countermeasures" combination of Trump's sanctions.

Several events cannot be looked at and analyzed separately, but must be combined to see the causal relationships and reciprocity inside.

This time, China's attitude and actions have truly made a common sense: "talk, the door is open; fight, accompany the end!"

3 Trend discussion and impact analysis: from trade conflicts to material cold war, what should we think of the next changes and impacts?

Let's first take a look at some conclusions of the essential dimension:

This incident not only marks the heating up of Sino-US trade friction again, but also indicates that the global industrial game has shifted from the "goods level" to the "element level."

When rare earth became a negotiation code, the essence of so-called "de-risking" is no longer a simple supply chain diversification, but a strategic defense of the vitality of the industry.

The United States 'response is still familiar: raising tariffs, subsidizing local production capacity, and restricting China companies' access to key technology areas.

However, these measures are extremely difficult to reverse the laws of physics in reality.

The construction of the material system depends on the long-term accumulation of processes, equipment adjustment and the talent chain, and once interrupted, the reconstruction cycle will be counted in "years".

From a macroeconomic perspective, such supply chain frictions will push up inflation expectations in the short term, while compressing the global manufacturing profit space.

From a geopolitical point of view, this represents the end of the “globalized division of labour” and the rise of the “regional production.”

In other words, we are witnessing an economic restructuring process that is "inefficient but strong".

When China announced the implementation of the export licensing system for rare-earth magnets, semiconductor materials and related technologies containing Chinese ingredients, it was essentially the bottom of the AI industry chain to implant a "physical firewall".

This strategy is very forward-looking, it is not only a passive response to external sanctions, but also the starting point for proactively building a technology defense system.

Beyond algorithmic competition, the world will have to face it again:
Any artificial intelligence ultimately runs within the physical boundaries of materials.

From the perspective of game analysis and prospects, in the next few years, the policy game between China and the United States in the fields of rare earths, semiconductors and new energy will show a triple trend:

The policy level:Bilateral export controls will be normalized, and tariffs and licensing systems will become geopolitical "stabilizers";
Industry level:Capital will accelerate the transfer to localization and friendly shore manufacturing, and the trend of "multi-polarization" of the supply chain is obvious;
Technical level:Alternative materials research and development, renewable resource utilization and low-energy metallurgy processes will become the focus of the industry.

From a macro structural perspective, this process means that the global economy is entering a stage of "de-globalization but not de-interconnection"-industrial chains are geographically dispersed, but remain closely interdependent in technology.

China, with its complete ecology of rare-earth metallurgy and magnetic materials manufacturing, will continue to play the role of "control variables" in the new round of industrial competition.

In the short term, this round of escalation of Sino-US competition and game will definitely be directly negative for the global capital and financial markets that are risk-averse and pursue certainty. There is no controversy about this.

U.S. stocks fell first to respect, then there is a high probability that the domestic financial market will also be affected in the short term and undergo downward adjustments.

In particular, the reality of the "soft bones", "surrenderism", and "acceptance as a father" labels that cannot be torn inside the current domestic financial circle, must be prepared for the coming downward fluctuations in the domestic stock market, there is a basic preparation.

But from another perspective, if this time the country's capital is out of hand, holding up the pressure, so that China's financial markets fall less, or even do not fall, can it be seen as the resilience of the Chinese economy, in the context of the game, more prominent?

Oh, this is the expected gateway, the shock and impact are inevitable, but how to deal with and perform, it is very important.

Next, it will not be possible to expect the financial institutions and speculative capital of the marketists to raise the seat, depending on how the bourgeoisie and the national capital with tasks decide and take action.

The situation is such a situation, but the subsequent changes, as well as the nature behind the situation, are worth paying attention.

Which one do you think is more likely?

Write at the end:

At extraordinary times, what understandings and preparations should be established for domestic investment groups and funds?

Trump’s tariff threat and the rapid decline in the markets are only phenomena.The real focus is that the competition between China and the United States has sunk to the level of the periodic table of elements.

When trade friction is no longer based on products, but on materials, the nature of economic game has fundamentally changed.

To sum up, some macro aspects correspond to the reality. In fact, in the next period of time, even if there may be no further big moves on the bright surface, it will inevitably bring stormy impact and influence to the domestic economic environment, especially the financial market.

The current macro game, main lines and changes must be taken into account:

Compared to the trade war of 2018, China has already completed its transformation from “defense” to “reattack”.

When the United States increased its tariff by US $200 billion that year, China could only counter US $60 billion of goods due to total import restrictions, and the bilateral tariff comparison of 21.1% to 19.3% was still at a disadvantage;

And the 2025 counter-production showed amazing accuracy and systematicity, each trick is played in the U.S. "seven centimeters".

Dismantling the shell of the tariff war, the Sino-U.S. game of 2025 has long been upgraded to the amount of "global trade rules dominance".

This trade war will not have a "winner takes all" ending, but it will determine the global economic landscape in the next decade.

If the US adheres to extreme tariffs, it will fall into a dead cycle of “stagnant inflation + debt crisis”: high tariffs drive inflation, forcing the Fed to maintain high interest rates, while interest spending on $33 trillion in government bonds already accounts for 18 percent of the federal budget is accumulating default risk.

Although China is facing export pressure, the domestic demand market of 1.4 billion people, a complete industrial system, and continuous R&D investment, constitutes the "iron triangle" of risk resistance - R&D investment in 2025 is expected to account for a share of GDP of 2.6%, and the number of patents in semiconductor, new energy and other fields has surpassed the United States.

The most likely breaking point is in 2026:

U.S. agribusiness protests may force Trump to adjust the tariff list, and China may either take the opportunity to resume talks on rare-earth quotas to find a compromise in the balance of “regulating sensitive goods + releasing livestock.”

But regardless of the outcome of the negotiations, one thing is a foregone conclusion:

The global supply chain will no longer return to the era of "unipolar dominance." China's industrial advantages in rare earths, new energy, 5G and other fields have become strategic assets that cannot be destroyed by tariffs.

For the domestic investor group, in the end of the article, share a few individual thoughts and opinions, not necessarily right, the right to throw bricks, for everyone to have a discussion and reference is good.

The following is the point of view, in short:

The gentleman does not stand under the wall, this is one side.

The bigger the wave, the more expensive the fish, but provided that you can see exactly where there are fish, and also can guarantee your own safety bottom line, it is always the character character characteristic that breaks out of the world, not can not play, but rather do not deserve the level of the world, right?

Finally, since you are China, there is no reason not to support or trust your motherland. History has proved countless times that there will be no good results, whether it be a traitor or a mutinous dog.

The stormy sea is just around the corner, and I would like to share it with all my compatriots.

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