On October 10th, the words at the White House cabinet meeting caused the Sino-US trade nerve to be tightened again. At that time, US President Trump angrily slapped the table at the camera and said, "China has tightened rare earth control, and we have bought too many items from them, so maybe we should stop completely." On the other hand, he sent three tweets on social media one after another, declaring that from November 1st, 100% tariffs would be imposed on all Chinese goods.
The fuse behind this tough statement is the two announcements issued by China's Ministry of Commerce on October 9th. According to Xinhuanet, the Ministry of Commerce made it clear that it would implement export controls on overseas rare earth-related items and rare earth technologies. Even if they were products produced by foreign enterprises, as long as China's heavy rare earth components accounted for more than 0.1% or China's rare earth mining and smelting technology was adopted during production, if they wanted to export, they must first obtain China's permission.
Why did the United States have such a big reaction? By looking at the data, we can understand that the 2024 report of the U.S. Geological Survey shows that China's rare earth reserves account for 49% of the world's production, accounting for as high as 68.5%. More importantly, more than 90% of the world's rare earth smelting and processing capabilities are in our hands. From chips in mobile phones and magnets in headphones, to U.S. F - 35 fighter jets and new energy vehicle batteries, they are all inseparable from rare earths. A single F - 35 fighter jet. Only 417 kilograms of rare earth materials are needed. However, the Pentagon's own strategic reserves are only enough to last for 18 months. Hou Lei, an expert from China Academy of Social Sciences, mentioned in an interview that the United States is at least 20 years behind China in terms of heavy rare earth separation and purification technology, and it is unrealistic to find alternatives in the short term.
On the part of Trump, taking and shouting tax increases, and setting a 20-day deadline, this seems to be a tough initiative, but after careful consideration, this behavior is more like a manifestation of a false voice, not to mention the other aspects, but simply, this up to 100% tariff, who will ultimately pay for this?
Back in June 2025, the United States imposed a tariff of 50% on steel-made household appliances, but the ultimate result was that the price of an ordinary washing machine, directly increased by $ 90, and this additional increase in costs, eventually all transferred to the heads of the American people, and even, even the Federal Reserve's calculation, also confirmed this.
And, economist Ryan Swift of the Oxford Institute of Economics, early issued a warning that if it really implemented such high tariffs, then the United States had not been able to effectively suppress the inflation, it is likely, will fall into a situation of complete out of control, after all, the current U.S. CPI comparison in January is still up 3%, this figure, far beyond the US Federal Reserve set the goal of 2%, in such a situation to raise taxes, is not like to add trouble to yourself.
A more realistic situation is that even though Trump is eager to let the relevant policies land after 20 days, the United States itself actually doesn't have the ability to implement them. Take early October as an example. At that time, the U.S. government was in a deep shutdown crisis. Although customs law enforcement officers were counted as "necessary posts", they had to bite the bullet and continue to work. However, all those staff in the background who were responsible for reviewing documents and entering the system had to take unpaid vacation, so that now China's cross-border e-commerce sellers have spit out the customs clearance speed.
American companies do not agree with Trump's move. For example, Michael Ho, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, recently expressed his attitude directly, saying that "we generally oppose tariff increases, and the lower the tax rate, the more ideal." He also bluntly stated that American companies are fundamentally inseparable from the China market. There is even news that the American Chamber of Commerce is already looking for lawyers to consider filing a lawsuit against the Trump administration. They believe that The Trump administration's arbitrary invocation of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to increase taxes is illegal in itself. After all, once trade is really cut off, problems will immediately arise in the supply chain of the U.S. automobile and technology industries. Just like Tesla CEO Musk also admitted a few days ago that the shortage of rare earths has had an impact on the company's research and development progress of humanoid robots.
In the face of the successive threats, China's attitude has always maintained a very clear state, that is, the so-called control is not the same as prohibition. As long as it can effectively comply with relevant regulations and achieve compliance, it can be purchased.
A spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce has long explained accordingly that rare earth exports for humanitarian purposes such as emergency medical care or disaster relief can apply for exemption licenses; for normal commercial procurement, as long as they strictly comply with various established regulations, those that deserve approval will be approved.
Moreover, this whole matter is essentially legal. You should know that rare earths are within the category of dual-use materials for military and civilian use, and the practice of implementing export controls on them is a common international practice. Countries or regions such as the United States, the European Union, and Japan have also taken such measures.
Simply put, China is actually only committed to maintaining its own national security and fulfilling its non-proliferation obligations. At all, it is not "holding the world hostage" as Trump said.
In recent years, the truth of trade between China and the United States has been repeatedly verified, and the result is that cooperation is beneficial to both sides, while fighting will hurt both sides.
In April 2025, Trump tried to raise tariffs against China to 145% , but the result is that the Chinese economy has not been too much affected, in turn, the US retail industry is so bad, and the shelves of many supermarkets are almost half empty, the reason is that the cost of imports is too high, which leads to businessmen based on cost factors, and do not dare to store.
At present, the global supply chain is presenting a complex situation that is intertwined. Under such circumstances, the United States is trying to rely on means such as "extreme pressure" to force China to make concessions. From a practical perspective, it is simply unrealistic.
China has long made it clear that its attitude is that "the United States does not have the qualification to engage in dialogue with China based on its strength and position", and if it really tears its face and starts a trade war, then China will definitely take strong countermeasures and will not let its own interests be harmed.
In fact, Trump is also very clear in his heart that as far as the current situation in the United States is concerned, it is impossible to leave China's rare earths in the short term. Although there are rare earth mineral resources in the United States itself, most of them belong to light rare earth types, and their heavy rare earth reserves account for only 5% of the world's total. More importantly, there is no decent rare earth processing plant in the United States.
If, to establish a complete set of rare-earth metallurgy system, not a decade of time, can not be achieved at all, and, also need to face environmental protests, and the pressure of high costs, for example, before the United States in Arizona has built a rare-earth processing plant, only environmental approval this link, it will take 5 years, but ultimately because of the cost too high this factor, in the beginning of the work is not up to six months, declared the shutdown.
From this point of view, instead of spending energy to make harsh remarks, it is better to sit down calmly and discuss cooperation-related matters.
In the final analysis, the essence of this round of games lies in the fact that the United States is still unwilling to accept the fait accompli of China's rise. But it must be clear that the world has already undergone earth-shaking changes. China's position in the global supply chain was not built overnight, nor can it be easily shaken with a few threatening words. Trump's remarks, such as 100% tariff and 20-day deadline, are more like a superficial "paper tiger". If it is really put into practice, the first unbearable thing will be American consumers and various enterprises. After all, a trade war will not produce so-called winners. Only cooperation is the only right way to achieve long-term development. I hope that Washington can understand this seemingly simple but profound truth as soon as possible.