Recently, Trump did not expect that China could play a combination of punches, not only tightening control measures on the rare earth issue, but also imposing special Hong Kong and Macao fees on U.S. ships. The 79-year-old Trump posted an article early in the morning, saying on the one hand that meeting with China at the APEC summit had become "meaningless." On the other hand, it also threatened to impose a 100% tariff on China. It can be seen that Trump was very angry this time and almost lost control. As soon as he finished speaking, he was directly admitted to the hospital for a physical examination.
On October 10th, US President Trump announced on the social media platform "Real Social" that he would impose a 100% comprehensive tariff on China on November 1st and implement key software export controls. This move was regarded by the outside world as a "trade nuclear bomb". Trump's tariff threat is not an isolated incident. Previously, the U.S. tariffs on China had accumulated to 57.6%, and China announced on October 9 that it would implement export controls on rare earth technology, directly hitting the key points of the U.S. military industry and new energy industry chain. China has introduced seven consecutive countermeasures within two days, including controls on key materials such as rare earths and lithium batteries, as well as sanctions on U.S. companies such as Qualcomm. After 48 hours of silence, Trump threw out the 100% tariff plan. Obviously, it shows that this time he is really in a hurry, and he was hit in a sore spot by China. The 100% tariff is Trump's "angry response" to China's counter-measures.
But you should know that Trump is nearly 80 years old, and his physical condition has always been concerned by the outside world, especially when he gets up early in the morning and sends long messages, which is obviously emotional, which is also bad for health. Recently, Trump has been bruising his hands. The White House attributed it to "frequent shaking hands" and taking aspirin, and his ankles were swollen. He was diagnosed with chronic venous dysfunction, which also attracted attention. Although doctors denied the serious illness, he took large doses of cholesterol-lowering drugs. Further hints at potential cardiovascular risks. Moreover, Trump's physical examination is only six months away from his last time, breaking the annual routine. Although the White House said that his "heart age is 14 years younger than his actual age," it did not explain the reason for advancing the physical examination.
But what is certain is that the White House's announcement of Trump's annual physical examination results coincides with the recent escalation of the Sino-US trade war.
In fact, for Trump, it is also quite uncomfortable. On the one hand, he is old, especially in the position of president. It is very likely that the Democratic Party will make a fuss about health issues. Just like before former US President Biden left office, the Republican Party also believed that Biden was dozing off and was no longer qualified for the job of president. This time, for Trump, it is very likely that the Democratic Party will find an opportunity. Therefore, in this case, as a leader of the United States, it is very likely that he will divert domestic attention from his own health by being tough with the outside world.
On the other hand, the White House's early publication of the results of medical examinations may also be the market panic that tariff policies sparked, creating "the president's energy", avoiding adversaries from borrowing health problems.
But in any case, Trump this time is the component of psychological warfare, 100% tariffs equivalent to trade embargo, there is no possibility of continuing to do business at all, so the actual probability of landing is lower, Trump is also left room "to raise taxes time or sooner depends on Chinese actions."
In fact, for Trump, this early medical examination is also the right choice, this time the Chinese side is a comprehensive counter, and the pressure of the Trump administration will be greater, first not the government shutdown issue, the same day, the U.S. stock in the tariff news declined, the semiconductor plate fell more than 5%, and the U.S. farmers, retailers have been damaged because of the previous tariff counter control. If Trump really implemented 100% tariff, the U.S. inflation pressure will increase, will further aggravate social contradictions, weaken the Trump governing foundation.
This time, rare earths and technology have become the core battlefield. China's control of rare earth technology directly hits the soft spots of U.S. military and green industries, while the software export control threatened by the United States targets China's AI, chips and other high-tech industries. Both sides are competing for dominance of the industrial chain while avoiding comprehensive decoupling.
So in the long run, even if Trump due to health or domestic pressure, adjust the strategy, but the strategic direction of the U.S. to China science and technology containment, basically will not change, the Sino-U.S. probability rate will still maintain "fight and not break", and both sides still reserved the crisis control window, that is, the APEC meeting in November is near, the two sides may use the international occasion to ease the situation. or that word, we always maintain strategic determination, to the "bottom line thinking", against possible risks, have done enough preparation, the Chinese side through the "rare mark" "market mark" and other counter-tools, has shown the resilience to cope with the long-term friction, and even if it is not possible, November 1 is still early, not long for equal counter.