A heavy incident broke out in Japanese politics yesterday
The Komeito Party announced that it would withdraw from its ruling alliance with the Liberal Democratic Party, ending the 26-year cooperative relationship between the two sides.
This was described by Japanese media. The divorce year.”The breakdown has shaded the dream of the prime minister of the high-city early-size who has just been elected chairman of the Democratic Party.
As I analyzed in my previous article, as early as the election of the president of the Self-Democratic Party on October 4, Zidane, a representative of the Communist Party, clearly raised her three concerns:
(1) Strengthen the supervision of corporate and group political contributions and solve the problem of "politics and money";
(2) Historical understanding and issues of visiting Yasukuni Shrine;
(3) A symbiotic policy with foreigners.
These three tips are somewhat vague, and Japanese politicians usually point to the point where the real three hopes are:
(1) Suggest that takaichi sanae should not appoint members involved in political black money scandals (most of these members are their core supporters-former members of Abe faction);
(2) not wanting to visit the Yakuza Temple during his term of office, thereby irritating China and South Korea;
(3) They do not want Takashi Saami to follow the example of far-right political parties, put forward the slogan of "Japanese First" or implement policies that exclude foreigners.
It is understood that Gaoshi Zaomiao has given guarantees to the Komeito Party on the second and third points, Promise not to visit the Yasukuni Shrine during his term of office, and will not propose unfriendly policies against foreigners.
However, on the most crucial first point - the question of not using scandalous lawmakers - the city has always responded positively on the basis of "one said no" and has not responded positively.
This move sparked strong dissatisfaction within the Communist Party, followed by the voice of disengagement from the ruling coalition.
However, considering that leaving the alliance will also cause damage to the Komeito Party itself (for example, it will lose the position of Minister of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism that it has controlled for a long time), Takaichi sanae once judged that the Komeito Party was only putting pressure and might not really break.
During yesterday's meeting with Komeito Party representative Tetsuo Saito, Takashi Saito, who was still immersed in the victory of winning the Liberal Democratic Party president and was all smiles, did not notice the other party's stiff expression and failed to fully notice the other party's resolute attitude.
In the absence of satisfactory answers, the Communist Party announced to the media directly after the talks to withdraw from the ruling coalition.
Faced with the criticism of the party, takaichi sanae tried to evade responsibility on the grounds that "she took office as the president of the party for only six days" and "the demands of the Komeito Party cannot be decided by her alone".
The deepest reasons for the party’s decision to “break up”
There are two deep-seated reasons behind the Komeito Party's resolute separation from the 26-year alliance with the Liberal Democratic Party:
First, the political black money scandal of the self-government party affects the election of the public party
The political black gold scandal that broke out by the Democratic Party not only seriously damaged its own public image, resulting in a loss in the election in both houses of the House of Representatives, but also indirectly involved the Allied Communist Party.
After these two House and Senate elections, the seats of Komeito Party have dropped sharply.
As early as a year ago, when the scandal broke out, there were many voices within the Komeito Party to leave the alliance.
However, after Shigeru Ishiba was elected Japanese Prime Minister, he took a series of measures aimed at cutting down the problem members and reshaping the image of the party in response to the serious "black money" scandal in the Liberal Democratic Party, focusing on rectifying and excluding members of the Abe faction with serious scandals.
Moreover, the good relationship between Sharif and the Party of the Communist Party is very good, and it can well accommodate the political philosophy and demands of the Party of the Communist Party.
Therefore, during his tenure, the alliance relationship was maintained.
However, after being elected, Takashi Saami, who was deeply supported by the Abe faction, quickly appointed members of the Abe faction involved in political black-gold scandals (such as appointing Takoichi Hagiko, who had previously resigned due to the black-gold scandal and was punished by the party, as acting secretary-general).
This move made the Komeito Party worry that it would endanger its own election situation. After persuasion was ineffective, it finally prompted the Komeito Party to make up its mind to "break its arms."
Second, under the new pattern of power, the alliance base no longer exists.
The political basis was weak, and the elected president of the self-government party relied largely on the support of Mahatma Gandhi.
Tarot became. “The Emperor.”, a large number of Aso faction members and their allies were placed in personnel arrangements, and other political forces with good relations with the Komeito Party (such as forces such as Suga Yoshihide and Shigeru Ishiba) were not considered.
In order to avoid being completely ignored by Taro Aso, Takashi Saami, who was born in the Abe faction, had to win over the Abe faction in an attempt to balance.
Added She herself has no intersection with the Komeito Party, resulting in her inability and intention to take into account the interests of the Komeito Party.
At present, judging from the most important candidates of the Liberal Democratic Party's "Four Services of the Party" (four core positions in the party), a power structure of "Taro Aso makes major decisions and takaichi sanae is responsible for small matters" has been formed.
The top leaders of the "Aso-Takashi System" jointly led by Aso and Abe faction are alienated from the Komeito Party.
Even worse, Mr. Tarot himself has a tense relationship with the Communist Party and its supporters, and there are profound differences in his policy positions with the Communist Party philosophy.
The Komeito Party is reluctant to cooperate with Taro Aso's too influential Liberal Democratic Party.
Therefore, when Takaichi Sanae and Taro Aso were elected president, the breakdown of the alliance seemed doomed.
The prime minister's throne, which originally seemed to be a certainty, has also become obscure due to the withdrawal of the Komeito Party.
2. Takaichi Sanae's road to Prime Minister is suddenly uncertain
The withdrawal of the Communist Party caused a heavy blow to the Democratic Party, and also completely disrupted the layout of the prime minister.
According to the latest data, the Liberal Democratic Party accounts for 196 seats, Komeito Party occupied 24 seats。
After the Komeito Party withdrew, the total number of seats in the ruling coalition dropped to 196 seats, less than the majority of the House 233 seatsThe threshold.
More importantly, the Komeito Party has made it clear that "it is absolutely impossible to write the name of 'takaichi sanae' on the ballot paper" in the next prime minister's nomination election.
This means that Gaoshi will lose the stable support of the Komeito Party with 24 votes.
At the same time, the opposition camp is actively seeking cooperation.
The largest opposition Constitutional Democratic Party. and 148 seatsAttempt to United Democratic Party (27 seats)The Japanese Society. (35 seats)The other forces, jointly promoting a prime minister candidate, currently the leader of the national democracy party Yuyuki Miyamoto has become a potential candidate.
If the opposition parties can be successfully integrated, they will be able to pose a serious challenge to Takashi and Miao in the prime minister's nominated election.
Of course, there are still variables in the political game.
It does not rule out that the self-government party and other opposition parties choose to form a coalition government, but there is no opposition people in the high market, and麻生太郎 has no other suitable opposition party other than the National Democratic Party.
The Self-Democratic Party attempted to attract the leader of the National Democratic Party, Yūku Yūku, to take the position of finance minister.
However, Yumi himself said on social media that he was “ready to be prime minister” and would vote for himself in the election to nominate the prime minister.
At present, the prime minister's nomination election originally scheduled for October 15 is expected to be postponed until after the 20th, which reflects the uncertainty of the current political situation. However, the path to prime minister of Gao Shi and Miao has undoubtedly changed from a "certainty" to a "undecided".
c) Conclusions
After wishing to be elected chairman of the People's Party of China, Gao Xiaobo failed to properly handle relations with key allies of the People's Party of China.
Given its strong Abeist colour, the re-use of scandalous members of parliament after being elected, plus the tension in the relationship between the Mahatma Gandhi and the Communist Party, which ultimately led to the rupture of the governing coalition.
On the one hand, this stems from her own weak political foundation and dependence on Aso and Abe; on the other hand, it also exposes her mistakes in political judgment.
She underestimated the determination of the Communist Party to try to clear the boundaries with “black gold” and also overestimated the capital that the Democratic Party can still steadily win the bonds after losing its allies.
Although takaichi sanae still has a chance of being elected prime minister, even if she succeeds, she will surely face a more divided parliament and a more difficult administrative environment.
This political breakdown, which ended in a “fashioned divorce”, not only crushed the prime minister’s seemingly reachable dream, but also brought the biggest change in Japanese politics since the end of the Cold War.