Officers were killed one after another, and Pakistan's patience finally reached its limit. An undeclared cross-border air strike has dragged Afghanistan's four major cities into flames. Is this Operation Thunder a turning point in the war on terrorism or a prelude to regional turmoil?
According to Bloomberg, the recent day, the Pakistani Air Force launched a rare cross-border strike in recent years.Pakistan launched JF-17 "Dragon" fighter jets and F-16 groups, while using drones to carry out precision air strikes on seven targets in Afghanistan, covering four major cities such as Kabul, Hoest, Nanjinghar.
Near Abdul Haq Square in central Kabul, a drone locked on the target and fired missiles. Reports said it killed senior Pakistan Taliban commander Noor Wali Mehsud on the spot.
Pakistan media further disclosed that the air strikes also eliminated many core Bata commanders such as Sher Zaman and Abu Hamza.
Although Bata subsequently released Mehsud's recording to deny his death, some analysts pointed out that there was a precedent for terrorist organizations to forge recordings to stabilize the morale of the army.
This large-scale raid was not an impulsive retaliation, but a thunderous counterattack by Pakistan after officers stained the battlefield with blood.
Since 2024, the frequency of attacks by the "Taliban Movement of Pakistan"(referred to as "Bata") has increased sharply.
According to public data from the Pakistan military, in the first nine months alone, 4 lieutenants and 10 majors were killed in counter-terrorism operations, and the number of casualties among ordinary soldiers was several times that of officers. The ambush in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province in early October claimed the lives of 17 soldiers at one time.
It is worth mentioning that in the latest death list of this time, the death of Major Zibutan Raza Hazara struck the nerve of the military, whose 4th camp of Punjab coalition has long been active on the frontline of counter-terrorism, whose death is seen as "a provocation to the dignity of the nation".
What makes Pakistan even more intolerable is that military intelligence shows that most of these attackers are supported by India and rely on external blood transfusions from training to weapons.
The Pakistani Taliban continuously exploits Pakistani border control, and the tacit attitude of the Afghan Taliban authorities is seen as tolerant to the militants.
Compared with the well-equipped Pakistani military, Bata militants have long adopted the guerrilla tactics of "hit and run" by virtue of their mobility and cross-border concealment ability.
Once the Pakistani army stepped up its crackdown efforts, they quickly withdrew to their shelters on the Afghan border, as if "weeds were inexhaustible." This asymmetric combat model has put the Pakistan military in the dilemma of "beating cotton with heavy fists."
The overlap of factors has completely angered Pakistan, whose defense ministers shouted in parliament that “patience has exhausted,” marking a shift from defence to cross-border strikes in Pakistan’s counter-terrorism strategy.
Pakistan demonstrated the sophisticated design of hybrid warfare in this airstrike.
The JF-17 "Xiaolong" fighter jets and the F-16 fleet took off from the Peshawar base and cooperated with the "Pterosaur" drones to form a high-low strike network, targeting four major cities, including Kabul, Paktika, and Khost.
In Abdul Haq Square in Kabul, drones accurately destroyed a vehicle carrying Bata commander Nur Wali Mehsud; in the Margabar district of Paktika Province, a militant camp was razed to the ground by missiles.
These operations rely on real-time intelligence from the Pakistan ISI and may even be supported by data from the U.S. Central Command. Pakistan media revealed that the United States helped locate Bata leader Mehsud through intelligence sharing.
At the time of the Pakistani air strikes, Afghan Foreign Minister Mutaki was on a visit to India to seek economic and military support.
The analysis pointed out that the Pakistani military is using warplanes to draw a red line: if Afghanistan turns toward India and tolerates anti-Pakistani armed forces, cross-border strikes will become the norm.
This strategy of “bombing peace” is similar to the “point clearing” logic in the U.S. war on terrorism, showing Pakistan’s “American” shift in counter-terrorism.
Moreover, the airstrike was not only a military retaliation, but also a geopolitical warning to the Afghan Taliban, but the attitude of the Afghan side was unexpected.
Afghanistan had previously reacted sharply to Pakistan’s cross-border operations – after a Pakistani airstrike on the border in January last year, a defense ministry spokesman denounced it as “cowardly behavior” and threatened “not to sit down.”
But after the attack in Kabul, the government only said that "in the investigation", the attitude was clearly softened.
Behind this shift is the plight of Afghanistan:
On the one hand, Atta needs Pakistan's economic and trade channels and diplomatic recognition; On the other hand, the aid provided by India is difficult to replace geopolitical reality.
Joata's tough response to Palestinian air strikes could trigger a full-scale conflict on the border, which is already overwhelmed by the domestic economic downturn and the threat from the Islamic State branch.
Ultimately, the underlying logic of this conflict is the escalation of proxy wars.
India supports Bata with funding, training and equipment to ease Pakistan’s pressure on Kashmir, while the United States uses Pakistan to fight terrorist forces it considers, while restraining the Afghan Taliban’s closeness to Russia.
But the U.S. intervention is a double-edged sword: it has both strengthened the Pakistani military's operational effectiveness and may exacerbate the anti-American sentiment in the people of the country, making the Afghan Taliban more inclined to turn toward India.
The security landscape in South Asia is at a crossroads.
In the short term, Pakistan may continue its "surgical" strike, but it will avoid the dispatch of ground troops and prevent the conflict from escalating into a war between the two countries.
The Afghan Taliban may choose limited retaliation-such as allowing militants to increase harassment, and at the same time condemning Pakistan for "violating sovereignty" at the diplomatic level.
However, if India takes the opportunity to expand military assistance to Afghanistan and even send consultants, Pakistan may further lean on the United States, forming a camp-based confrontation of "the United States and Pakistan vs India and Afghanistan".
Thro the history of global counter-terrorism, the “Operation Cut the Head” can break down the enemy’s command system in the short term, but rarely eradicate terrorist forces.
After the U.S. military killed bin Laden in 2011, al-Qaeda rapidly elected new leaders and developed more branches. Similarly, the Bata organization adopted a flat structure, and after the key heads were removed, the underlying units could still operate independently.
The deeper problem lies in geopolitical contradictions.
The disputes over the Durand line on the Afghan-Pakistan border have lasted for a hundred years, with local Pushtu tribes living across the border, providing a network of natural shelters for militants.
After Atta took office, although he declared that foreign armed forces were prohibited from using Afghan territory to commit crimes, his binding force on Bata was limited.
When the warplanes passed through the night sky in Afghanistan, it carried not only a nation’s revenge fury, but the whole region’s security governance paradox: how sovereignty and anti-terrorism balanced?
The answer may not be within the range of the missile, but on the negotiating table and the battlefield of the people's heart.The only certainty is that the next storm will come sooner or later.