When I woke up, there was another turmoil between China and the United States. This time, it was Trump who couldn't help it first. He fired all the firepower on his social platform, posting hundreds of words of long articles in succession, pointing out that China was "aggressive", criticizing China's rare earth export control as "threatening the world", saying one set of malicious words after another, and even releasing the two old cards of "hundredfold tariff" and "software blockade".
But when the topic changed, he suddenly emphasized that "there is no possibility of canceling the meeting with China."
This is not the first time we have seen this familiar "fight and talk" drama. The question is, when he was so anxious this time, which nerve was stepped on?
Being poked at a sore spot, he jumped with anxiety
Trump's anger this time, on the surface, is dissatisfied with China's rare earth policy, but in fact, he has been hit by the economic life door. He used a lot of harsh words in the article, saying that China "kidnapped the global science and technology chain" was "full of hostility" and even involved "moral shame".
But anyone familiar with his style knows that this exaggerated language is often a signal that his emotions are out of control.
China's move this time is indeed accurate. Rare earth is nothing new, but its position in high-tech manufacturing and military industrial systems is "irreplaceable" to put it bluntly.
On the other hand, the United States has lacked strategic reserves for decades, and its dependence on China is almost "heart-to-heart". This time, China not only didn't relent, but also took advantage of the trend to throw out a combination of "full chain supervision", "list of unreliable entities" and "special port fees" to tighten the entire supply chain. Trump glanced at it suddenly. Is this okay? Apple, chips, military industry, and aviation all have to hang on China's hook.
At this time, his anger was a bit like a exposed "paper tiger": it looked scary, but it was actually hollow. After all, he was the one who started the trade war. Add tariffs, cut chips, blockade, everything.
But over the past few years, the ones who have suffered the most are actually American manufacturing and ordinary consumers. In this game of "you hit me and I retaliate", China has never punched first, but every time it takes a shot, it hits the weak spots of the United States. Trump is furious this time. To put it bluntly, what he is afraid of is not that China is too strong, but that his own camp is too weak.
Repeat the old script, no new tricks.
The "new trick" in Trump's mouth is not new. The first trick, taxing one hundred percent. He wants to double the tax on all Chinese products, and it sounds awful, but the question is, this operation he has done.
Inflation in the United States, corporate costs increased, ordinary people buy a washing machine are not expensive.The wave of "tax increase" after 2020, so that many U.S. small and medium-sized enterprises complain about the connection, the analysis of the U.S. Treasury Research Bureau has long pointed out that the increase in tax costs eventually transferred to U.S. consumers.
Ironically, he cried out to raise taxes at this time, but did not talk about the current economic situation in the United States. Congress budget shell, the federal government faces a closure crisis, unemployment rate is high, and is still thinking of using "tariff bars" to save the poll?
This is like a person who is indebted, who is still delusional about raising the rent to turn, listening to it, in fact, can not stand.
Second, card software exports. This trick is aimed at high-end software such as aircraft chips, industrial control systems.
But the reality is that China has moved from the operating system to commercial aircraft, from industrial software to artificial intelligence, although it has not completely surpassed the United States, but it is no longer the situation of the year "you break me and I am paralyzed".
Trump’s picking out this card can only be considered as “more gesture than substance.”
From this content it can be seen that his “horror” is more of a performance, seen to the voters, but also to the capital market. But the problem is that such a scenario audience is bored. In 2025 today, the international market is more than the endurance, strategy and supply chain security, not the years under the sky.
Leaving a hole is actually because you are afraid of "lifting a stone and hitting yourself in the foot"
The most intriguing thing is actually the seemingly "moderate" sentence in this long article: he emphasized that "the talks with China at the APEC Summit will not be cancelled." As soon as this sentence came out, it left a way out for the originally explosive speech. This is not a temporary idea, but Trump's usual "negotiation routine."
While shouting that he would "make China pay the price," he said,"dialogue is not ruled out." This is not a contradiction, but his usual trading style. He knew that if he kept his words to death, he wouldn't even be able to sit at the negotiating table.
And at this point, he needs a “opponent” to help himself make articles.China, just the “most appropriate” role.
But the problem is here too.China has long ceased to eat this set.Trump's "talk talk" can still blow a wave during his first term, and now get it out, there is not much deterrence.
China's position has always been clear: it is willing to dialogue, but does not accept threats. If you want to talk, you must show sincerity; if you want to fight, China will not be afraid.
From the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to the Ministry of Commerce, from Xinhua Agency to CCTV, the attitudes expressed are very unified: China's countermeasures are for the national interest and are not targeted at any specific country, but they will not be passively beaten.
If Trump really wants to talk, China welcomes it; If he wants to force concessions by shouting, he may have to write a few more long articles.
Crying does not solve the problem.
This time Trump sent, it looks like a strike, in fact is passive. he shouted the more violent, reflected in fact is the lower. China's combined kick hit accurately, steadily, is hitting the soft ribs of the American supply chain.
Trump's "two tricks" can't talk about new ideas at all, mostly the replay of the old script. More importantly, he said in his mouth, but clear in his heart: off the road, not going far and not going.
The old path of hegemony is gone.The bottom line of China comes from the solidity of the industrial chain, the vastness of the market and the stability of the policy.In this multi-polar world, the problem cannot be solved by barbarism and rumor.
The future Sino-US relations must be based on equality and respect, rather than whoever has a loud voice will win.
This game is still going on, but one fact has become clearer and clearer: China will not be intimidated; The United States should also re-examine its role. Who really wants to cooperate and who just wants to make a show, time will give the clearest answer.